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Politics - Quarantine Thread

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Most major cities stopped all nonemergency procedures. Many hospitals have laid off personnel, they are losing money and doctors are complaining.
Yeah. The hippocratic oath, as I recall, is all about money. One of our highest compensated professions loses their cash cow for a few months and the whining starts.

sad about the Employees. Not the docs.
 
Yet somehow your existing hospitals are half full, other temporary hospitals have shut down, and mass transit is still operational and PPE is palletized in warehouses.
I'm now beginning to understand some of the reaction, and why some people in other parts of the country just don't get it.

You really believe hospitals are 1/2 full? If that's the case it's surely the exception. That's not even the case in normal times. Two friends of mine are emergency room nurses and they are still seeing 300-400% of the normal number patients each day, and they still don't have the PPE to follow protocol, although the situation is better than 2 weeks ago. And that's with the vast majority of the population saying home for the most part.

Mass transit is operational? What does that prove? Most mass transit is operating on a severely reduced schedule, and for the most part buses and trains are carrying a small fraction of their capacity.

If PPE is in fact sitting in warehouses, not sure what that proves other than logistical problems. Sure, would not be surprised if someone eventually points out that more PPE was made than needed. But when you are in an unprecedented situation, how do you decide how much is needed? It can't be manufactured and delivered overnight. You err on the side of safety because you just don't know. Are you aware of how many healthcare workers have died here?
 
Not when there's a chance he'll put others in danger with what he says.

Do you enjoy your Lysol Trumparitas every morning to keep you healthy?


Elon is not putting anyone in danger by digitally typing his thoughts that appear on your screen.


If you consider that danger (LOL) close your screen or turn it off and continue on with your physical life. It's going to be okay
 
I am disturbed at the way Elon conveyed his message. He's attempting to make a stand and to lead, but his erratic posts are not helping his message.

I've spent some time thinking about what he's said the past couple of days and have come to the conclusion that he's absolutely right.

At some point, somebody is going to have to call off the shelter-at-home mandates. It must happen and there's no argument. What we are doing now cannot be sustained indefinitely.

The only question is when to make that call. I'm with Elon on this - I believe the best candidates to make that call are the individuals in the affected localities. Individuals may make their decisions for a variety of reasons - economic, lack of cases in the area, added protections... or simple desperation to earn a paycheck.

There are compromised individuals who will unfortunately be affected by the decisions of others, and that's the hardest part about making the call to re-open. It's a tough choice to be made, but it's not dissimilar to the decisions that send young men/women to war to fight for our way of life.... and that's what we're going to have to fight for now. This time, however, the fighters aren't going to be young men/women getting sent into battle by gray haired politicians, this fight will be waged and won by everyone (the virus does not discriminate) who is adapting and trying to move forward with their life.
 
this virus is simply a wake up call for all the obese/immunity-compromised to get off the carb addiction wagon. why does everyone else have to suffer because you can't keep from stuffing your face with twinkies??? instead of saying ppl are dying of this stupid virus which is barely worse than the yearly flu why not address the real issue in this country. oh i forgot, it's all CICO. lol such fools. come at me.
 
At some point, somebody is going to have to call off the shelter-at-home mandates

The only question is when to make that call.

The timing of this decision should be made by public health authorities when they feel they have the capacity to do case-based interventions. It's nearly that simple.

The timing will likely be in 2-3 weeks in Fremont & environs, assuming people are good about the shelter-in-place. We have to get that case load down and eliminate widespread community transmission.

Then, we can TTIQ.

It's not going to do Elon any good to open up his factory, only to have an outbreak at the factory. In fact, that's very likely a worse outcome, as probably 10-20 of his 10k employees are at mortal risk (he doesn't apparently believe this for some reason, but it's nearly certainly true). He just needs to take a chill pill and be patient.

which is barely worse than the yearly flu

It's not the flu, bro.
 
That sounds like loser talk to me. We can beat this virus with TTI (Test/Trace/Isolate). Let's get to it, like real red-blooded Americans. It's absolutely possible to suppress it so community transmission is no longer an issue.



Influenza is not equal to coronavirus. Coronavirus has RNA proofreading mechanisms in its polymerase, which mean that the mutation rate is much much slower than influenza.



While the fatality rate is extremely high, and unacceptably high, it isn't quite that high. Most experts believe it is between 0.5% and 1.5% IFR. Anywhere in that range is terrible. It's almost certainly not 2.4% unless the hospital system collapses, or you're talking about a different demographic than the US.

The ~1% number - that's where the 2.2 million dead number came from (in an unmitigated epidemic).

More to the point for this thread, I don't understand WTF Elon is doing with all this tweeting. It's terrible, not a good look, he seems to be mostly wrong, and it's not good for Tesla.

I think there's plenty of room for legitimate debate about HOW to best execute a lockdown, and which activities to limit. I think it's fine to discuss how to prevent hospitals from collapsing due to lack of elective procedures. I think it's tragic that there is a lot of excess mortality because some people are NOT GOING to the hospital when they should be (appendicitis, infection, heart attack, injury, etc.). There are lots of problems with a lockdown - no one wants it. But Elon's not helping his case here, and he's NOT putting these legitimate issues front and center. He just seems to want his factory open, which is awful.

Most of these problems are fixed by building Testing, Tracing, and Isolation/Quarantine infrastructure. We MUST have rapid, widely available testing for all medical professionals, and anyone interacting with the health system, to be able to keep it clean. Otherwise those people going in for elective procedures will be dying of coronavirus. Or the people with appendicitis or other medical issues will be dying of coronavirus.

Elon is also wrong about people not being allowed out of their homes. That completely mischaracterizes the limitations. You're basically allowed to do anything you want do do, as long as it is safe for you and others.

Anyway, none of these issues are fixed by going back to work and pretending the problem doesn't exist. It's a huge problem. It's not some fabrication of politicians. There are very few winners in this debacle. We should have acted 6 weeks earlier, when it was obvious the virus was spreading in the US in late January, and we'd be done now. But we didn't, so here we are.

I don't know what is wrong with Elon, but he is probably on the spectrum.

Amazon is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars just on testing this quarter, and about $4 billion in total on making sure their workers and customers are protected from coronavirus. How much is Tesla planning to spend? Why don't they start working on spending tens of millions to acquire rapid testing equipment and test kits, for on site test, purchasing PPE, establishing robust infection control procedures, etc. This virus is not f**king around. You can't have 10k people in a factory practicing social distancing and wearing PPE, and that's all you do. It'll spread like wildfire.

Elon's time would be better spent investing in protecting the lives of his employees. It's going to be a very bad look if any of his employees die (there are probably about 10-20 of them at the factory who are in mortal danger). And not just a bad look - it'll be tragic, and totally preventable.

Wow, great post, thx.
 
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From Elon's standpoint, what he says makes sense.

Lots of people are lamenting our lack of personal freedoms that have been severly curtailed by our governments overbearing and unrelenting clamp downs to flatten the curve.

Not being able to go to work, or hug our grandchildren is taking a huge personal and human toll.

Coffins take a huge toll as well.
 
apparently all the deaths due to the fallout from a ruined economy are meaningless. this is not money versus lives. this is lives versus lives. if the mainstream media really cared they would be telling people how to improve their health and immune system. but i guess that's too much to ask and doesn't make as much money as fueling this mass hysteria. no one wants to talk about all the people dying from chronic diseases. this coronavirus wouldn't even be an issue if the population wasn't so metabolically compromised.
 
That sounds like loser talk to me. We can beat this virus with TTI (Test/Trace/Isolate). Let's get to it, like real red-blooded Americans. It's absolutely possible to suppress it so community transmission is no longer an issue.



Influenza is not Influenza is not equal to coronavirus. Coronavirus has RNA proofreading mechanisms in its polymerase, which mean that the mutation rate is much much slower than influenza.

That might be the case, although I was reading an article that pointed out that the mutation effect has already be seen. That they feel there are 20 to 100 different strains developing. No reason to think mutations will stop or slow. I have to wonder if they can make a specific vaccine that is effective on all strains of covid19.
 
That might be the case, although I was reading an article that pointed out that the mutation effect has already be seen. That they feel there are 20 to 100 different strains developing. No reason to think mutations will stop or slow. I have to wonder if they can make a specific vaccine that is effective on all strains of covid19.

I encourage you to really understand the science, rather than just reading articles on mainstream news, and websites. Pick up a high school biology textbook, or a college-level biology textbook, and start going through it and really understanding the basics. There are also excellent resources on Twitter, but you have to be able to apply critical thinking when selecting reliable sources.

It IS possible that mutations will eventually have an effect - in fact it is nearly certain (unless the virus is eliminated from the world). But the RATE is slow, and most mutations are selected against. But, it is possible that a phenotype with different level of transmissibility, etc, could develop. But it's going to be slower than flu.

I didn't say the virus doesn't mutate - it does - but the RATE is slower (by about a factor of 4, it looks like). Here are a couple links which you should read and absorb, based on some of the best science available:

Trevor Bedford at Fred Hutch:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Here's a broad overview of this virus as compared to other viruses from a Caltech (full disclosure: my alma mater!) professor (the antibody resistance & mutation is covered at 37:00):

 
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this virus is simply a wake up call for all the obese/immunity-compromised to get off the carb addiction wagon. why does everyone else have to suffer because you can't keep from stuffing your face with twinkies??? instead of saying ppl are dying of this stupid virus which is barely worse than the yearly flu why not address the real issue in this country. oh i forgot, it's all CICO. lol such fools. come at me.

Ummmm... Well let me just point out that a lot of people with compromised health are not that way because of their own actions. There are lots of people with heart conditions, cancer, organ problems from previous illness, etc. Your "go ahead and spread it, the weak deserve to die" mindset throws those people under the bus as well...
 
...distrust...

The Boy Who Cried Wolf:

1) Tesla is an essential business according to the Federal and also the State of California. There's no legal reason that Tesla cannot operate in Fremont.

2) Tesla is an essential business according to Federal and the State of Nevada. There's no legal reason that Tesla cannot operate its Gigafactory 1 in Nevada.

3) Tesla has been running Gigafactory 2 in New York but to make ventilators only. New York lists essential business includes manufacturing automobiles but I am not sure about solar.

Stop crying wolf!
 
...no one wants to talk about all the people dying from chronic diseases...

Covid-19 is about the speed of death.

Other chronic diseases have the courtesy to take their turns in the queue so they don't all overwhelm the hospital all at once. Yes, they are bad but at least they are not creating crises (except, of course, twice every year when the time changes).

Let's review US Covid-19 speed of how many days before it can double up:

3/17/2020: 110 deaths
2 days later: 3/19/2020: 209 deaths
3 days later: 3/22/2020: 414 deaths
3 days later: 3/25/2020: 1,027 deaths
3 days later: 3/28/2020: 2,200 deaths
3 days later: 3/31/2020: 4,053 deaths
4 days later: 4/4/2020: 8,452 deaths
5 days later: 4/9/2020: 16,691 deaths
6 days later: 4/15/2020: 32,443 deaths
16 days later: 5/01/2020: 65,753 deaths

upload_2020-5-1_23-37-5.png
 
I will say that my Extremely high risk stats is because I have chronic leukemia. I’ve been in great shape and health, but my lymphocytes are crap. So I should be “culled” before my time because I drew a short straw?


Covid-19 is about the speed of death.

Other chronic diseases have the courtesy to take their turns in the queue so they don't all overwhelm the hospital all at once. Yes, they are bad but at least they are not creating crises (except, of course, twice every year when the time changes).

Let's review US Covid-19 speed of how many days before it can double up:

3/17/2020: 110 deaths
2 days later: 3/19/2020: 209 deaths
3 days later: 3/22/2020: 414 deaths
3 days later: 3/25/2020: 1,027 deaths
3 days later: 3/28/2020: 2,200 deaths
3 days later: 3/31/2020: 4,053 deaths
4 days later: 4/4/2020: 8,452 deaths
5 days later: 4/9/2020: 16,691 deaths
6 days later: 4/15/2020: 32,443 deaths
16 days later: 5/01/2020: 65,753 deaths

View attachment 538002

I won’t even get into the specifics as to the common ways COVID kills most people. Lets just say I wouldn’t wish it on my own enemy. It is outrageously horrible - or do you think you just roll over, sleep, and die? Its odd no-one talks about that.

And, if you live through a serious infection, your respiratory system suffers damage - quite often.

Your numbers are accurate: it usually takes COVID 7-14 days to kill you after it gets severe.
 
this virus is simply a wake up call for all the obese/immunity-compromised to get off the carb addiction wagon. why does everyone else have to suffer because you can't keep from stuffing your face with twinkies??? instead of saying ppl are dying of this stupid virus which is barely worse than the yearly flu why not address the real issue in this country. oh i forgot, it's all CICO. lol such fools. come at me.
Nonsense.

First of all there are plenty of immunity compromised people where their illness has nothing to do with their weight or lifestyle.

And there are thousands of otherwise very healthy people who have died. Just in my neighborhood alone there was a 32 year old otherwise perfectly young father who died at home in his sleep after being released from the hospital because he seemed to be on the mend. He died in his sleep. According to his wife he was having trouble breathing and unfortunately made the mistake of deciding to wait until morning to return to the hospital.

Another one of my neighbors was on a ventilator for 17 days and the doctors finally had to make the difficult decision that they could not save him. 48 years old, an avid runner, and otherwise in perfect health. They sneaked his wife into the hospital to say goodbye to him as they disconnected him, and she was there as he tried to take his last breaths. She could not even give him a hug as it was too dangerous. About as gut wrenching as it gets.
 
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