[Poll] - Are you ordering Model Y?

[ggnykk]

Tesla drastically improved navigation energy estimates with a firmware update in April 2018. They still assume mild weather, so the initial estimate may be off -- you generally charge to a higher buffer level in winter conditions or when facing a strong headwind. However, the estimate of battery percentage will update in real time as you drive, based on actual energy use. If the battery percentage at the destination falls too low, navigation will suggest slowing down or finding additional charging.

The best strategy when this happens is to slow down a little right away, rather than slowing down a lot nearer the destination. You can speed up again once you know you have it made or if the battery percentage at the destination starts rising again.

Yes, the estimated Supercharging times will be too short. So what? Charge to the buffer level appropriate for the driving conditions.

This stuff isn't that difficult to learn or do. Perhaps Tesla should include a tutorial in the manual on how best to use the navigation energy estimate, but how many people would actually read it? Most of us figure it out for ourselves. The point is that the tool is there if you want to use it. Or you can do what I've seen some first-Tesla-road-trip drivers do: charge to near full at each stop. Not very time efficient, to put it mildly, but it helps them overcome range anxiety.

One caveat when using navigation to a destination just on the other side of a high mountain pass: be sure to have enough energy to get to the top of the pass! The energy plot is helpful for this, as you can see from this recent example of a route to the Poncha Springs, Colorado, Supercharger Station via Monarch Pass (11,312 feet, 3448 meters):

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thanks for explaining! I actually never understand why Tesla's trip planner initial estimate is always off and assume mild weather during initial calculation. Why not just use the efficiency in the last 50 or 100 miles let say and use that as one of the baseline factor to calculate the estimate for your next destination? It is really just high school math, not rocket science.

The current situation where you charge until let's say 15% of battery remaining at destination. You unplug from supercharger, and start driving. 15 mins later, the trip planner revised the new estimate and say it is now at 3% for battery at destination. Yes, you can slow down the car to bring % back up. But why all these inconvenience? And you never know if the initial estimate is off by 5%, or 10% or 20%. I remember seeing video on Youtube with estimate as far off as 35%. Why not just use the last 50 or 100 miles of driving as the baseline for initial estimate?

 

[ggnykk]

No, maybe closer to 200 miles if the weather is in the 40s continuously. Our situation with the colder-than-usual 170-180 round trips was that the battery was cold-soaked in teens (F) temperatures for at least an hour after completion of overnight charging, the car was driven on snow/ice for a bit, then with limited regen down the mountain where the temperatures were in the 30s in the morning, and then on a freeway round-trip where the temperatures gradually rose to the low 50s, then back up the mountain into sub-freezing temperatures.

And yes, 18” wheels with aero covers.

170 miles from 80% down to 10% of battery is not bad in 30s temperature.

 

[abasile]

All things considered, I think Tesla is already doing a great job of route energy prediction. There will always be room for improvement.

Why not just use the last 50 or 100 miles of driving as the baseline for initial estimate?

Making predictions based on past driving patterns is a good idea, but to do this well without causing confusion may require more data than Tesla is currently collecting and some real smarts. Weather and road conditions can vary considerably from one drive to the next. Wind speed/direction and air temperature can change rapidly by time and location.

To pick a simple example, what if you drove to your friend's house with a tailwind, spent a few hours there, then drove back home into a headwind?

In the future, Tesla could leverage data from other Tesla vehicles that just drove the same road segments. There's also the issue of multiple drivers using the same car, but Tesla could "learn" the behavior typically associated with each driver profile.

 

[ggnykk]

All things considered, I think Tesla is already doing a great job of route energy prediction. There will always be room for improvement.


Making predictions based on past driving patterns is a good idea, but to do this well without causing confusion may require more data than Tesla is currently collecting and some real smarts. Weather and road conditions can vary considerably from one drive to the next. Wind speed/direction and air temperature can change rapidly by time and location.

To pick a simple example, what if you drove to your friend's house with a tailwind, spent a few hours there, then drove back home into a headwind?

In the future, Tesla could leverage data from other Tesla vehicles that just drove the same road segments. There's also the issue of multiple drivers using the same car, but Tesla could "learn" the behavior typically associated with each driver profile.

The Tesla trip planner should simply look at the consumption in the last 50, 100, 200 miles. Then pick the worst consumption number out of the three. Then use that worst consumption number add like 5% margin of safety on top of it. Use this number as the baseline of the initial estimate. Whatever extra battery you have at the end will just be a bonus, or you can drive at higher speed to burn that extra battery.

This method is MUCH MUCH better than the current estimation which just throw out a best case theoretical consumption number that can only be achieved in summer in ideal road condition. So basically Tesla has never fixed this stupid issue for like 5 years now. It is quite hard to believe. This is just a high school math problem!!

 

[Beryl]

Ordered. This exactly what I need to replace my S. It provides more storage, improved egress/ingress, better battery technology, slimmer profile for easier parking and navigation through construction zones, yet doesn’t sacrifice comfort (based on model 3 experience).

Tesla will need to step up their game on the model S over the next year because I believe a LOT of people will see this vehicle as I do — the best of the lot.

 

[ggnykk]

Ordered. This exactly what I need to replace my S. It provides more storage, improved egress/ingress, better battery technology, slimmer profile for easier parking and navigation through construction zones, yet doesn’t sacrifice comfort (based on model 3 experience).

Tesla will need to step up their game on the model S over the next year because I believe a LOT of people will see this vehicle as I do — the best of the lot.

Maybe Model S refresh is coming late this year or early next year.

 

[abasile]

This method is MUCH MUCH better than the current estimation which just throw out a best case theoretical consumption number that can only be achieved in summer in ideal road condition. So basically Tesla has never fixed this stupid issue for like 5 years now. It is quite hard to believe.

It's not a "best case" number. I usually come quite close to the Tesla consumption estimates, and I'm by no means a slowpoke. Quite often, I beat those estimates. You just have to allow some wiggle room in extreme conditions, high winds, etc.

This is just a high school math problem!!

Famous last words! Problems like this are rarely as simple as one might initially think.

 

[abasile]

Another thing I'll add is that, in 8 years and 150K+ miles of driving EVs, I've never run out of charge. If things don't work out as expected, it's easy to either slow down or stop somewhere else, even if it means a bit of slower Level 2 charging to get to the next Supercharger. Having the PlugShare app is great as a safety blanket, particularly for new EV drivers who might not be as confident about their car's capabilities. Particularly in California and in the Northeast, there are many, many places where one can stop for an "emergency" boost if needed.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The Tesla trip planner should simply look at the consumption in the last 50, 100, 200 miles. Then pick the worst consumption number out of the three. Then use that worst consumption number add like 5% margin of safety on top of it. Use this number as the baseline of the initial estimate. Whatever extra battery you have at the end will just be a bonus, or you can drive at higher speed to burn that extra battery.

For me this plan would have navigation saying I couldn't make trip legs that I know, from experience, that I can make. A few days ago I did a trip that included twenty miles on white ice, dozens of miles on slushy roads, miles in a long line of cars, at 30 mph in a 55 zone, following snowplows removing the snow from the roads, then thirty miles with a strong crosswind and windblown snow across the mostly clear, dry road, then thirty miles of a strong tailwind before the next Supercharger stop. And you want it to use the worst case estimate? Which segment? Driving on slush? The crosswind? The tailwind? As it happened, the next trip leg was mostly clear dry roads over an 11,000 foot pass and was much easier than the previous leg, as I knew from checking road reports. Using an estimate from the most difficult parts of the previous trip leg, navigation would have just told me that I couldn't make it. I don't see how that is helpful.

This method is MUCH MUCH better than the current estimation which just throw out a best case theoretical consumption number that can only be achieved in summer in ideal road condition. So basically Tesla has never fixed this stupid issue for like 5 years now. It is quite hard to believe. This is just a high school math problem!!

I disagree. Tesla drastically improved navigation estimates in April of last year. Before that it did tend to underestimate the energy required for a trip leg at high freeway speeds. Since the April update I usually match or exceed the estimate in mild weather, same as abasile said above.They aren't hard to achieve "ideal" condition estimates. They are pretty typical summer season road trip estimates and, unlike the previous nav version, accurately allow for speed limits of 75 and 80 mph, which are common in much of the country. (Before, they seemed to be set for no more than 65-70 mph, regardless of the actual speed limit.)

The problem with your suggestion is that it would give inconsistent results based on "black box" factors that would be hard to discern. With Tesla's current system, the estimates are fairly reliable and consistent in mild weather and the driver can add some extra buffer for cold or otherwise difficult weather conditions. The assumption that the next trip leg will be in similar weather conditions as the previous one is not reasonable IME.

 

[ggnykk]

For me this plan would have navigation saying I couldn't make trip legs that I know, from experience, that I can make. A few days ago I did a trip that included twenty miles on white ice, dozens of miles on slushy roads, miles in a long line of cars, at 30 mph in a 55 zone, following snowplows removing the snow from the roads, then thirty miles with a strong crosswind and windblown snow across the mostly clear, dry road, then thirty miles of a strong tailwind before the next Supercharger stop. And you want it to use the worst case estimate? Which segment? Driving on slush? The crosswind? The tailwind? As it happened, the next trip leg was mostly clear dry roads over an 11,000 foot pass and was much easier than the previous leg, as I knew from checking road reports. Using an estimate from the most difficult parts of the previous trip leg, navigation would have just told me that I couldn't make it. I don't see how that is helpful.

To avoid this kind of situation, I think the computer can just extend the previous mileage used. Instead of previous 50, 100, 200 miles and use the worst case, the computer can use last 300, 600, 1200 miles for example, and then pick the worst case number. So this would basically eliminate any chances that difficult driving condition in only part of the trip would screw the overall consumption.

 

[ggnykk]

I disagree. Tesla drastically improved navigation estimates in April of last year. Before that it did tend to underestimate the energy required for a trip leg at high freeway speeds. Since the April update I usually match or exceed the estimate in mild weather, same as abasile said above.They aren't hard to achieve "ideal" condition estimates. They are pretty typical summer season road trip estimates and, unlike the previous nav version, accurately allow for speed limits of 75 and 80 mph, which are common in much of the country. (Before, they seemed to be set for no more than 65-70 mph, regardless of the actual speed limit.)

The problem with your suggestion is that it would give inconsistent results based on "black box" factors that would be hard to discern. With Tesla's current system, the estimates are fairly reliable and consistent in mild weather and the driver can add some extra buffer for cold or otherwise difficult weather conditions. The assumption that the next trip leg will be in similar weather conditions as the previous one is not reasonable IME.

I am glad that the fix from last year has improved the accuracy by a lot. But how accurate is it in extreme cold weather though? Like if the trip planner say you will have 25% battery remaining at destination, is it common to still get let's say 3% left in reality once u reach the destination? (this kind of wildly inaccurate estimate used to be very common, not sure if it is still the case in winter and driving higher than speed limit)

 

[ggnykk]

By the way, per the poll result, the % of people ordering the Model Y after unveiling are now at 25%. A surprising low % considering this poll is conducted in a Tesla forum. What would the percentage be in the overall general public? like 2% of car buyer?

 

[BULLSHARK]

Order placed, but I still have concern about the actual cargo space, will see

 

[abasile]

By the way, per the poll result, the % of people ordering the Model Y after unveiling are now at 25%. A surprising low % considering this poll is conducted in a Tesla forum. What would the percentage be in the overall general public? like 2% of car buyer?

I don't find this surprising at all. The main benefit of ordering the Model Y now is getting to be one of the first to take delivery if ordering a high trim version that'll make it into production early. Showing support for Tesla and its mission will also be a factor for some ordering now. There's probably no real financial incentive to order early, unlike with Model 3 reservations where people in the US wanted to secure a place in line in order to hopefully be able to claim the full $7500 federal tax credit. There was also a great deal of excitement about the Model 3 being the first relatively affordable Tesla, sex appeal and Superchargers and all.

The Model Y is more incremental in nature and represents Tesla's maturation into a major automaker (besides its energy business). The Y is a great offering and it may well outsell all of the other Tesla vehicles combined. However, the vast majority of consumers are not going to want to put down $2500 on a vehicle that will not be available for at least 18 months. At this point, to best manage the expectations of consumers as well as investors, I think Tesla is smart to be taking "orders" and not "reservations".

What will the take rate be among the general population? We certainly won't find out until well after the vehicle is in full production. I think many middle-class people will end up stretching a bit to afford Teslas; we already see this with the Model 3, and the Model Y is better aligned with what people want to buy nowadays. While the complete phase-out of the US federal EV credit is a headwind, the 3 and the Y will remain well positioned relative to legacy luxury brands such as Lexus, Acura, BMW, etc., and state/provincial/utility EV rebates will still help Tesla to be price competitive with mass market nameplates in many markets. Another headwind is that many people will continue to be reluctant to embrace EVs for long distance travel, but V3 Superchargers should help significantly.

 

[abasile]

Order placed, but I still have concern about the actual cargo space, will see

The cargo space is supposed to be about the same as our 2012 Model S with its extra large frunk. We take our Model S on family camping trips and it carries all of our gear with room to spare. A full size SUV it is not, but I don't think you'll be disappointed.

 

[kem2112]

After seeing the Y at the reveal event last week, I immediately ordered an AWD 5 seater. We have an X 75D on lease until mid-2020 and I bought a 3 AWD in Q3'18 - but I don't want to replace my 3 with the Y, as I love driving my 3. We have 4 cars in our family with our boys in their 20's. The decision in 2020 will be to replace the X with the Y or add the Y to the fleet and take out an ICE ... the right thing to do is take out an ICE, but I'll need to see what cash flow looks like. My wife loves her X and would like to lease an X 100D ... I am trying to get her into the Y since it's a good form factor and more efficient. Great problems to have for sure ... we will be all EV in the future!

 

[Lhshockey24]

After seeing the Y at the reveal event last week, I immediately ordered an AWD 5 seater. We have an X 75D on lease until mid-2020 and I bought a 3 AWD in Q3'18 - but I don't want to replace my 3 with the Y, as I love driving my 3. We have 4 cars in our family with our boys in their 20's. The decision in 2020 will be to replace the X with the Y or add the Y to the fleet and take out an ICE ... the right thing to do is take out an ICE, but I'll need to see what cash flow looks like. My wife loves her X and would like to lease an X 100D ... I am trying to get her into the Y since it's a good form factor and more efficient. Great problems to have for sure ... we will be all EV in the future!
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Looks like you were standing right next to my wife and I at the reveal. She loves her X, but the Y form factor and cargo space is perfect to replace an S with going forward.

 

[ggnykk]

I don't find this surprising at all. The main benefit of ordering the Model Y now is getting to be one of the first to take delivery if ordering a high trim version that'll make it into production early. Showing support for Tesla and its mission will also be a factor for some ordering now. There's probably no real financial incentive to order early, unlike with Model 3 reservations where people in the US wanted to secure a place in line in order to hopefully be able to claim the full $7500 federal tax credit. There was also a great deal of excitement about the Model 3 being the first relatively affordable Tesla, sex appeal and Superchargers and all.

The Model Y is more incremental in nature and represents Tesla's maturation into a major automaker (besides its energy business). The Y is a great offering and it may well outsell all of the other Tesla vehicles combined. However, the vast majority of consumers are not going to want to put down $2500 on a vehicle that will not be available for at least 18 months. At this point, to best manage the expectations of consumers as well as investors, I think Tesla is smart to be taking "orders" and not "reservations".

What will the take rate be among the general population? We certainly won't find out until well after the vehicle is in full production. I think many middle-class people will end up stretching a bit to afford Teslas; we already see this with the Model 3, and the Model Y is better aligned with what people want to buy nowadays. While the complete phase-out of the US federal EV credit is a headwind, the 3 and the Y will remain well positioned relative to legacy luxury brands such as Lexus, Acura, BMW, etc., and state/provincial/utility EV rebates will still help Tesla to be price competitive with mass market nameplates in many markets. Another headwind is that many people will continue to be reluctant to embrace EVs for long distance travel, but V3 Superchargers should help significantly.

All great points there. But I also think that SUV being the most popular segment would help cancel out all those negative factors you mentioned. I guess only time will tell.
Tesla now should be more worried about whether Model 3 demand can be sustained at a high level.

 

[ggnykk]

After seeing the Y at the reveal event last week, I immediately ordered an AWD 5 seater. We have an X 75D on lease until mid-2020 and I bought a 3 AWD in Q3'18 - but I don't want to replace my 3 with the Y, as I love driving my 3. We have 4 cars in our family with our boys in their 20's. The decision in 2020 will be to replace the X with the Y or add the Y to the fleet and take out an ICE ... the right thing to do is take out an ICE, but I'll need to see what cash flow looks like. My wife loves her X and would like to lease an X 100D ... I am trying to get her into the Y since it's a good form factor and more efficient. Great problems to have for sure ... we will be all EV in the future!
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Wouldn't that be cool to be the first family in the world to have 4 Tesla? haha

 

[abasile]

Tesla now should be more worried about whether Model 3 demand can be sustained at a high level.

Assuming there is more demand for the Model Y than the Model 3, Tesla just has to be able to keep selling the Model 3 at volume until the Model Y is in full production. Here are some points to keep in mind:

1. Tesla just started selling higher-trim versions of the Model 3 in two large markets, China and continental Europe.
2. They haven't even started selling the cheaper versions of the 3 in those markets.
3. Tesla hasn't yet produced the left-hand-drive variant, nor have they started selling the Model 3 in a number of significant countries.
4. The car sells itself and new demand is constantly being generated organically.
5. Tesla hasn't yet offered Model 3 leasing in the US.

None of this guarantees that Tesla will be able to rapidly sell every Model 3 that they make, and even Elon Musk can only roughly estimate demand. But I think there is reason for optimism.