[POLL] Best use of $9k Long Range vs TSLA

[insaneoctane]

Of course past gains are no indication of future results...I know, I know....
Anyway, this is a fun question (in my mind). What's the better choice? Part of me is wondering if I should NOT choose the LR model and just buy stock instead, then use the (hopefully) proceeds to buy a better 2nd gen Model 3! Weigh in your opinion on the future of Tesla stock vs buying the $9K long range upgrade.

Choice 1:

• Buy Long range model for $44K
• Sell vehicle in 10 years
• Assume standard 12K/yr to make things easy

Choice 2:

• Buy Base model for $35K
• Buy $9K worth of TSLA
• Sell both in 5 years
• Buy new comparably equipped gen Model 3 (with NO $7,500 Federal Tax credit!)
• Sell vehicle in 5 years
• Assume standard 12K/yr to make things easy

Which of these 2 options has least total cost of ownership after 10 years? Obviously the TSLA has more "upside", but what's YOUR guess?

PS - Please avoid the standard derogatory comments about how cars aren't investments, etc.

 

[JeffK]

It's simple... if you don't need the range or added acceleration there's no reason to get the long range.

If you need that range then you need that range, it's not really a choice.

 

[ChadS]

I partly agree, but there are other considerations. Longevity (lease or buy?), better warranty, faster charging, more flexible charging.

There are enough Superchargers and 2-car families (and people that don't take trips, or fly, or can rent a car) that the vast majority won't NEED the big battery. But there are several significant benefits if you get it.

And for the range bump you get, it's less than half the cost of optioning up an S or X. And nobody else offers it. So if you enjoy road trips and can afford it...go big.

 

[Twiglett]

I partly agree, but there are other considerations. Longevity (lease or buy?), better warranty, faster charging, more flexible charging.

There are enough Superchargers and 2-car families (and people that don't take trips, or fly, or can rent a car) that the vast majority won't NEED the big battery. But there are several significant benefits if you get it.

And for the range bump, it's less than half the cost of optioning up an S or X. And nobody else offers it. So if you enjoy road trips and can afford it...go big.

Least of which is you get your car 4-6 months earlier

 

[JonathanD]

I'm not sure it's a fair comparison -- shouldn't choice two be that you purchase a used Model 3 with extended range 5 years from now after you sell the first one and the stock?

 

[insaneoctane]

The underlying question is will $9K invested in TSLA today appreciate MORE the expiring $7,500 Fed Tax credit PLUS the cost creep of the Model 3 five years from now. Let's say a base model M3 costs $42K in 2022:
$7,500 + $7,000 = $14.5K
That means the TSLA stock has to more than double and be worth $23.5K in 2022 and that doesn't even include the sales tax of 2 cars sales vs one.....
I do highly suspect that in 2022, the base M3 will have >300 range and other goodies we don't know we need yet.

 

[MP3Mike]

How about choice 3: Invest $9k in Tesla now and sell it to buy your long range Model 3 in late next year when you can get it.

 

[Foxhound199]

Here's why I think the bigger battery is a good investment: My number one fear is that some day, the battery will have degraded or technology will have advanced to the point where a smaller battery would have me itching for a new car. I typically keep my cars for well over a decade, so having a car with capabilities that aren't likely to bother me down the road is pretty important. If I was planning on getting a new car in 5 years, I'd go with the smaller battery.

 

[JeffK]

Supposedly in the future you will be able to swap your battery for a new one. Not sure if that'll be in the next decade though.

 

[insaneoctane]

Supposedly in the future you will be able to swap your battery for a new one. Not sure if that'll be in the next decade though.

Seems unlikely. Tesla can't even retrofit AP on their model S vehicles. Changing battery packs would require either matching the weight of original or changing suspension components. I sure wish it were a possibility, but I am not counting on it.

 

[RayW]

Invest the $9K in a basket of lithium miners, then wait for it to grow into a nice down payment for your Model 3

 

[JeffK]

Seems unlikely. Tesla can't even retrofit AP on their model S vehicles. Changing battery packs would require either matching the weight of original or changing suspension components. I sure wish it were a possibility, but I am not counting on it.

Higher energy density packs will allow more capacity for the same weight. Elon has mentioned that this "*will* happen" for the Model S

 

[insaneoctane]

Higher energy density packs will allow more capacity for the same weight. Elon has mentioned that this "*will* happen" for the Model S

Source?

 

[JeffK]

Source?

no one ever believes me

 

[insaneoctane]

no one ever believes me

On the contrary, just want to know how much to believe you
Googling around shows that tweet to be around 3 years old. The roadster has a battery pack available now, but it is *gulp* $29,000!

 

[sports4eva115]

no one ever believes me

nahh it's about backing up your claim and shutting down naysayers dat feelin doe

 

[JeffK]

On the contrary, just want to know how much to believe you
Googling around shows that tweet to be around 3 years old. The roadster has a battery pack available now, but it is *gulp* $29,000!

It'll be more of a factor when cars start outlasting the batteries due to degradation. So far that hasn't happened.

 

[calisnow]

Which of these 2 options has least total cost of ownership after 10 years? Obviously the TSLA has more "upside", but what's YOUR guess?

PS - Please avoid the standard derogatory comments about how cars aren't investments, etc.

If you want to not get slammed with the comment that consumer consumption is not an investment then DON'T CALL IT AN INVESTMENT. If you want to increase your wealth buy stocks - if you want to decrease it buy consumer goods.

 

[kzod]

Least total cost of ownership would be a Smartcar EV. $99/month lease.

There seems to be much confusion these days but a car is not an investment. It's a consumable resource. Buy it. Use it. Enjoy it. Sell it for pennies on the dollar later. An investment would be stocks, or bonds, Gic's etc. You invest with the hope that the investment will appreciate. With a car the only question is how much more will I enjoy it vs another car.

 

[TehDoak]

This is silly. Car upgrades are horrible investments. 9k in an index fund (rather than TSLA stock) would crush it the minute you drive it off the lot. Let alone over 10 years.

It's better to have the car longer as the depreciation curve slopes quicker at the beginning. The quicker you sell a car, the more you'll lose to depreciation.

If your looking at pure investment advise. If you have 44k to spend and a reliable car:

Put 44k in an index fund. Whatever car you have, keep it for 3-4 more years.

Go buy a used model 3 in 3-4 years for 22k. A long range one. Keep the 22k you invested in that same index fund. Drive the Model 3 for 6-7 years and take care of it.

New cars are awful investments. New car "upgrades" are even worse.