Poll: Delivery Start for 90D's

[vandacca]

I do not really understand why people would be irked if they have to wait in line. I am not addressing anyone in particular, but we now know that Tesla is delivering P90Ds first. For the Every 4 or 5 P90Ds that Tesla delivers, it can show the same profit of an additional Model X without having had to produce it. Of course it is not only about profit, but also about total number of vehicles delivered with as few problems as possible. I ordered a 90D because I feel I do not need the Performance package. If you go to the store, do you expect to be checked out first if you buy more stuff. It does not work that way. First come first served. If you go to the bank, do you get to jump the line if you have a larger deposit that the other people? No, it does not work that way. First come first served. Tesla never said that they will produce all of the P90Ds first before they start with 90Ds. At some point they have to draw a line and start producing both, because people will continue to order the P90Ds while others have waited for nearly 4 years. I decided in February of 2012 that I wanted a Model X, and that I will get the one with the largest available battery pack, but I did not reserve until a few months later, after I decided not to go with a sig, but just a standard production model. I too sometimes feel like I am getting irked, but the fact of the matter is that we have all waited a long time, and some.

Another point that needs to be made is that Tesla initially built a production line to spit out Signature Xs. It would make logical sense (to me) that once they have that running smoothly, they can start to make alterations to the line to add new options/features. I would imagine that trying to build all combinations from day one would be a recipe for disaster.


---Updated---
Or what jsollender wrote, as he/she beat me to it.

 

[LeonardD]

Tesla does not have to process orders like your bank or the hypothetical store with a single line. They are maximizing profits by producing the most pricey cars first, and perfecting their ramp up by batching production of cars as closely configured as possible. Once they get their ramp up in order without confusing the flow with different model styles, you (and I) will no longer have to wait. Do I mind that someone who first got on the bandwagon less than one month ago and ordered a P90DL gets his vehicle less than 2 months after ordering, while you (2/2012) and me (4/2015) have to wait? Sure it does. But you had no delivery promise on 2/2012, or even when you configured in late 2015. Go ahead and gripe if you like, or cancel. I'm patiently waiting for mid-2016, or later if it turns out that way. I'm not a pacifist, and have a very large obnoxious potential when need be. I just see it as something outside my control and leave it as that. It will be what it will be, so stop complaining. All it makes us look like is a bunch of winey rich folks. Speaking of which, anyone gotta bottle of Papillon 2012 from Orin Swift? Love their wines, but I digress.

I agree with all you are saying. I am just adding that no one really has a right to be irked because of this or that. Tesla can do what they want, as they should. Either way, the longer we wait the better our cars will be, and we do not have to pay a premium to need more SC appointments.

Seems like most people are expecting 90D deliveries to start in May. I am still hoping for April, but we will see.

 

[Colby Boles]

What if they were going by reservation date? [emoji6]

But, I seriously doubt this is the case.

They certainly do not seem to be. I reserved on 8/2/14 (11xxx) but I see VINs being assigned to reservation numbers from 2015. I think if you were able to confirm a P90D within a certain time window it is purely a function of choosing the right options (e.g. premium package) that determine the build order.

 

[EboMike]

They certainly do not seem to be. I reserved on 8/2/14 (11xxx) but I see VINs being assigned to reservation numbers from 2015.

Yep. dwebb66's graph visualizes the correlation between confirmation date and VIN assignment: Production (Non-Sig) Model X Vin #'s now being issued - Page 23

 

[Vizir]

They certainly do not seem to be. I reserved on 8/2/14 (11xxx) but I see VINs being assigned to reservation numbers from 2015. I think if you were able to confirm a P90D within a certain time window it is purely a function of choosing the right options (e.g. premium package) that determine the build order.

Hah. I reserved on 8/1 and also 11xxx. [emoji1] Mines 90D, so I expect mine will be made after the P90Ds, including those who reserved in 2015. I'm guessing you went for the P model? Premium package?

 

[highedu]

The more I think about it, I think TM is well aware of there prior fiascos as it relates to communicating dates and missing them.

If we take this as a base assumption, the estimates for delivery of 90D in mid year is conservative. Couple that with what folks are saying about X's still being produced and sitting for parts, we could see a torrent open up when the parts issue is resolved with all the X's currently in prod or WIP. We will see 90d deliveries in April/May

 

[highedu]

With March VINS it may seem like the April/May predictions could hold up!

 

[LeonardD]

With March VINS it may seem like the April/May predictions could hold up!

I voted for April and hoped for May as far as my own car goes. I may have been wrong on mine, but not on when they deliver the first ones. This is real progress even if only a beginning.

 

[aesculus]

I voted for June but it appears from other like VINs I could be seeing April.

 

[elguapo]

I don't understand. Tesla says you're 5-6 weeks from entering production once you get a VIN. So that puts a 90D squarely in Mid April for production if production isn't slowed. Then, it has to be made, QC'd and shipped. Then the SC has to do an inspection. All of that is at least another 4 weeks, I believe. So a VIN today could mean a Mid May delivery at best. Why do others think April is realistic?

 

[EboMike]

I don't understand. Tesla says you're 5-6 weeks from entering production once you get a VIN. So that puts a 90D squarely in Mid April for production if production isn't slowed. Then, it has to be made, QC'd and shipped. Then the SC has to do an inspection. All of that is at least another 4 weeks, I believe. So a VIN today could mean a Mid May delivery at best. Why do others think April is realistic?

About 1000 VINs were issued over the past 48 hours. That's in addition to all the other cars that already have a VIN but are still waiting for their car.

Over the past few months, Tesla has delivered a few hundred cars (IIRC). It would be a HUGE ramp up in their production if they were able to pump out over a thousand cars in a few week's time.

 

[pvogel]

Which isn't outside the realm of possibility of they've gotten the robots dialed in to be accurately assembling the cars so there's little/no refit required after the car rolls off the line. They did say they expected the ramp to increase dramatically once they got past the early break in of the car on the line.

 

[EboMike]

Which isn't outside the realm of possibility of they've gotten the robots dialed in to be accurately assembling the cars so there's little/no refit required after the car rolls off the line. They did say they expected the ramp to increase dramatically once they got past the early break in of the car on the line.

And I could imagine that, if it wasn't for the large number of QC issues that caused a lot of work at the SCs. Obviously, my "larger number of QC issues" is an extrapolation based off the reports on the forum here, I don't have any actual numbers, so maybe the initial roll-out went pretty smoothly except for a few quirks that have since been fixed.

My DS is asking me to talk to my bank and get preapproved, he seems pretty serious about the April date. Or just eager to get the money

 

[aesculus]

I don't understand. Tesla says you're 5-6 weeks from entering production once you get a VIN. So that puts a 90D squarely in Mid April for production if production isn't slowed. Then, it has to be made, QC'd and shipped. Then the SC has to do an inspection. All of that is at least another 4 weeks, I believe. So a VIN today could mean a Mid May delivery at best. Why do others think April is realistic?

Some are speculating they might be even playing the end of quarter game. And what if at the end of the quarter they don't actually deliver the cars but state they have ~1000 ready to deliver in the next few weeks and are just finishing up minor details? Can they get cred for that?

Note that those that are getting VINS are close to the factory and have substantially the same configs (minus the P) than those that have P VINs have. They may have stockpiled a lot of stuff that would go into P's that got held up for various other reasons (white seats, non premium, onyx wheels, ...) and could apply them to regular 90's, which except for the active spoiler, have the same parts as the P's or use the same chassis as the S90D.

 

[highedu]

Looks like we were generally wrong!

8% (7 people) predicted March delivery accurately

 

[pvogel]

Looks like we were generally wrong!

8% (7 people) predicted March delivery accurately

I'd wait until there is actually a 90D delivery in March before declaring that!

 

[highedu]

I'd wait until there is actually a 90D delivery in March before declaring that!

Looks like 8.5% of us who voted were actually correct. We were generally more pessimistic, and just goes to show group think can be wrong despite all the "analysis" and churn on the forums.

In this case...feels good to be wrong.