Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Poll: FSD Beta V9.1, how close is it to release (i.e. out of beta)?

What do you estimate the unsupervised accident rate (> 12mph) of V9.1 of FSD beta is?


  • Total voters
    30
  • Poll closed .

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
The stated goal for FSD is to be twice as safe as human drivers when used unsupervised. Tesla's safety data shows an accident rate of 1 per 2 million miles without Autopilot enabled (Tesla Vehicle Safety Report). They define an accident as "all crashes in which the crash alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated."

I thought it would interesting to see how people estimate the unsupervised accident rate based on watching FSD beta videos (FSD beta users should also chime in and comment!). Make sure you consider the fact that only a fraction of disengagements we see would actually result in a collision (other drivers might take evasive action, car might stop, etc.).
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,811
4,041
VB
But, how many unprotected lefts are there per mile driven?

I bet 2 accidents for every 3 unprotected lefts.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
This poll is dumb. Fsd beta 9.1 isn’t meant to be used unsupervised. And your pool doesn’t match your topic.
Yeah just like every other beta autonomous vehicle... the only way you get to unsupervised is to test it supervised until you get the level of safety desired.
What do you mean? obviously Tesla could do wide release of FSD beta but that’s a completely different question (I already did a poll about that. People were really bad a predicting that).
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,164
2,642
Orange County, CA
I thought it would interesting to see how people estimate the unsupervised accident rate based on watching FSD beta videos (FSD beta users should also chime in and comment!). Make sure you consider the fact that only a fraction of disengagements we see would actually result in a collision (other drivers might take evasive action, car might stop, etc.).
And zero reports of actual accidents with FSD beta, unless you have data to the contrary. Agree this poll is meaningless, because you're asking people to opine about accidents that did not happen.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
And zero reports of actual accidents with FSD beta, unless you have data to the contrary. Agree this poll is meaningless, because you're asking people to opine about accidents that did not happen.
Well, I don't think it would be ethical to find out the real answer! Of course it requires speculation.
The question of how safe FSD beta is when supervised is a completely different question. I think that is actually even more difficult to determine from watching FSD beta videos.

I do wonder if the people voting 100k-1M miles and 1-3 miles understood the question...
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
Of which you are full of, interestingly the majority being negative towards Tesla. Why is that?
I don't think I'm that negative towards Tesla. If my car were destroyed today I would buy another Tesla. Admittedly I would get it without FSD.
The great thing about FSD beta is that allows us to see the progress that Tesla is making. I was just curious how people would quantify that progress.
I was hoping for a much tighter distribution of votes. It's interesting that people can come to such wildly different conclusions from watching the FSD beta videos.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KrenGrl

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,164
2,642
Orange County, CA
I think you have to throw out the ridiculously low selections, leaving a clear majority of responses in the 100K-1M miles category, which seems to be a reasonable guess given you did not specify the severity or nature (personal injury/death, fender bender) of the accident. And "unsupervised" is not how Tesla FSD works. And you know this. So that 100K-1M miles would be using FSD according to instructions like being ready to take over and being responsible as the driver.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
you did not specify the severity or nature (personal injury/death, fender bender) of the accident.
I did, I used Tesla's definition!
And "unsupervised" is not how Tesla FSD works.
It is absolutely how it will work when (if?) it's out of beta. The whole point of a beta is to determine if a product is ready for release.
From the last earnings call: "I'm highly confident that the cars will be capable of full self-driving if they have a full self-driving computer and the cameras I'm confident that they will be able to drive themselves with the safety levels substantially greater than that of the average person"
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,164
2,642
Orange County, CA
I did, I used Tesla's definition!

It is absolutely how it will work when (if?) it's out of beta. The whole point of a beta is to determine if a product is ready for release.
"I'm highly confident that the cars will be capable of full self-driving if they have a full self-driving computer and the cameras I'm confident that they will be able to drive themselves with the safety levels substantially greater than that of the average person"
Um, no. Your quote omits the critical word AUTONOMOUSLY. (As in, no human driver needed. Doesn't say that at all.)

You're reading it how you want it. Yes, the puffery in 2019 and earlier suggested L5 functionality, but given that no one has anything approaching this and none on the immediate horizon, let's adjust our expectations to the car "driving itself" while we pay attention and be ready to take over. In other words, L2. L3 is a larger jump, but perhaps is attainable and usable on clear roadways with HW3. I'm not frankly expecting more than NoA anywhere.

Those holding the bar at L4 or L5 for Tesla with existing hardware are artifically expecting blood from a turnip.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
Um, no. Your quote omits the critical word AUTONOMOUSLY. (As in, no human driver needed. Doesn't say that at all.)

You're reading it how you want it. Yes, the puffery in 2019 and earlier suggested L5 functionality, but given that no one has anything approaching this and none on the immediate horizon, let's adjust our expectations to the car "driving itself" while we pay attention and be ready to take over. In other words, L2. L3 is a larger jump, but perhaps is attainable and usable on clear roadways with HW3. I'm not frankly expecting more than NoA anywhere.

Those holding the bar at L4 or L5 for Tesla are artifically expecting blood from a turnip.
And I'm the one being negative towards Tesla? That's a ridiculous interpretation.
Obviously I think it's very unlikely but it's clearly the stated goal.
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,811
4,041
VB
You created a topic that asked a question about fsd beta that is useless. How many miles will the car drive unsupervised. The answer is who cares? Fsd beta 9.1 is not meant for unsupervised driving and there isn’t anything on the horizon at scale that is, Tesla or otherwise. Why ask a question we all know the answer to? It’s going to be low miles per accident because that’s not what beta 9.1 is designed to do. If you took a waymo car and plopped it down into a random city you’d likely get simular/worse results then fsd beta 9.1
 
  • Love
Reactions: rxlawdude

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
You created a topic that asked a question about fsd beta that is useless. How many miles will the car drive unsupervised. The answer is who cares? Fsd beta 9.1 is not meant for unsupervised driving and there isn’t anything on the horizon at scale that is, Tesla or otherwise. Why ask a question we all know the answer to? It’s going to be low miles per accident because that’s not what beta 9.1 is designed to do. If you took a waymo car and plopped it down into a random city you’d likely get simular/worse results then fsd beta 9.1
If I had a Waymo car I would absolutely do that (with a safety driver!).

Clearly we don't know the answer since the range of responses is so wide. I think FSD beta is a prototype robotaxi and many of the beta testers agree with me. I think a lot of people care about how close FSD is to being out of beta especially since it's possible that FSD beta will never have a wide release.
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
3,164
2,642
Orange County, CA
I think FSD beta is a prototype robotaxi and many of the beta testers agree with me. I think ... it's possible that FSD beta will never have a wide release.
You think wrong, at least as far as current hardware and software development are concerned. When Tesla offers the model with no steering wheel, I'll come back here to tell you you're right. ;)

Further evidence: the inside camera of Ys, 3s and newer MS/MYs is intended to monitor the driver. When the camera was first discussed, people jumped to the conclusion it was to monitor the cabin while the car is a robotaxi.
 

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,743
6,897
Snohomish, WA
I think a lot of people care about how close FSD is to being out of beta especially since it's possible that FSD beta will never have a wide release.

FSD Beta as we know it won't have a wide release.

FSD Beta V10 will differ from FSD Beta V9.1 enough that the conversation changes.

The last beta FSD before a general release will likely differ enough from what's in the beta that it will be considered lesser. Like I could easily see them pulling things like uncontrolled left turns or forcing the driver to confirm.

Personally I think the odds are higher of a nerfed version of FSD Beta versus a non-release.

As to FSD being out of beta (as in an L4/L5 release) I don't expect to see that happen with HW3.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,068
10,534
San Diego
FSD Beta as we know it won't have a wide release.

FSD Beta V10 will differ from FSD Beta V9.1 enough that the conversation changes.

The last beta FSD before a general release will likely differ enough from what's in the beta that it will be considered lesser. Like I could easily see them pulling things like uncontrolled left turns or forcing the driver to confirm.

Personally I think the odds are higher of a nerfed version of FSD Beta versus a non-release.

As to FSD being out of beta (as in an L4/L5 release) I don't expect to see that happen with HW3.
I agree, I think that a wide release FSD Beta will be closer to "autosteer on city streets" (what they're actually selling now).
What people are testing today is basically the "robotaxi build" and not a driver assist system in my opinion. Maybe they're just doing this beta to figure out which features to put in the wide release and after that the robotaxi development will go back to being done by employees only.
On the other hand I thought they would never release Smart Summon and Elon clearly wants to release FSD Beta to everyone...
 
  • Like
Reactions: AlanSubie4Life

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,743
6,897
Snohomish, WA
On the other hand I thought they would never release Smart Summon
I have feeling like everyone at Tesla regrets releasing Smart Summon so I don't think we'll see a premature release like that. Like the traffic light/sign response was a very slow gradual rollout, and it still doesn't so what its really supposed to do.

My expectation is a release once they get Tesla vision working with AP/NoA on freeways. Probably won't see it till the fall.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top