[Poll] Given the Trade-offs, What's the Minimum Acceptable Range for a Tesla?

[FutureShock]

Looks like GM has weighed in on what they think is minimum-acceptable EV range going forward... and they're sayin', '300+ miles'.

GM's Electric Future - 300 Miles Of Range, Desirable And Affordable

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[FutureShock]

Can I drive to Grandma's house two states away with only 200 miles range? Yes I can, using superchargers.

As long as they keep building more superchargers I think people will get more and more comfortable with reasonably "medium" EV ranges like 200. I did.

Quite true, at least for most ppl in most parts of the country.

But I think the problem comes in with the marketing and eventual increased EV competition.

If Tesla made a bunch of 200 mile range cars, it would be fairly easy for VW, GM, BMW, Porsche, Lucid, etc. to eventually steal significant sales away by trumpeting their upcoming 300 or 400 mile range EVs when they arrive... Tesla supercharger network or no. Mainstream buyers have range anxiety. Mainstream buyers look at the numbers and go, "300 is a lot more than 200... I like that. And 400 is better still."

Even if they really might not need it. Look at the gazillion ppl who bought SUVs in part for their 'ruggedness' and 'offroad ability'... even though 90% plus of SUVs never get driven off-pavement.

GM's EV battle plan in the post previous is just a reflection of that marketing reality.

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[NewTMSMan]

Honestly this poll generally just reflects people's expectations based on ICE experience and not some analysis of what they actually would need. Most ICE cars have the fuel tank designed to provide between 300 and 350 miles of range, and that is what everyone is generally used to (albeit there are a number of exceptions including;

Toyota Prius – 12 gallon tank, 50 mpg = 600 miles
Honda Civic Hybrid – 12 gallon tank, 40 mpg = 480 miles
Ford Fusion – 17 gallon tank, 36 mpg = 600 miles
Volkswagen Golf – 14 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 490 miles
Chevy Cruze – 13 gallon tank, 35 mpg = 455 miles

Most people are used to around 300 miles as the minimum ICE range and I contend all they are doing is reflecting that in this poll.

 

[chadcristi]

These numbers remind me of the old megapixel myth for digital cameras. Sure, 12MP is going to take superior pictures compared with a 6MP. But, if 12MP is good, 24MP must be spectacular. Unfortunately, these megapixel numbers are only useful is you plan on printing poster-sized prints. Who does that?

In reality, I believe most people would benefit from their upper average daily driving range plus 35% for conditions that are less than ideal (ie. cold weather, hard accelerations and charging less than 100% to maintain battery health). What is your average daily drive? 100 miles? Let's do the math...100 miles + 35 miles for poor conditions = 135 miles. Now, let's figure a 90% charge which would mean your pack would need a capacity of 150 miles. A more simple way to calculate this would be 1.5 times what your average daily travel distances are.

Extended ranges are great for ICE cars. That means less frequent visits to the gas station. Remember what those are? But, with a plug-in electric vehicle, plugging in takes just a few seconds and the car is always ready to go every single morning.

When I bought my Tesla, I thought I needed the fastest charging capabilities (dual on-board chargers charging at 58 miles per hour) with the highest capacity batteries available (90KWh at the time with a 260+ mile range). Well, two years later and I haven't even come close to needing that capacity or charging speed. My annual average mileage is around 14,000 miles. Superchargers are close enough together that long-distance travel hasn't even been an issue for our December and January trips across the country. For around town, I seldom if ever go more than 100 miles in a day.

Manufacturers have to compete on something consumers can relate to. It goes back to that old belief (that is not necessarily true), "If a little is good, a lot must be better."

 

[Skotty]

200=sufficient (minimum acceptable?)
300=preferred
400=ideal
500=luxury
600=plaid

 

[FutureShock]

Honestly this poll generally just reflects people's expectations based on ICE experience and not some analysis of what they actually would need. Most ICE cars have the fuel tank designed to provide between 300 and 350 miles of range, and that is what everyone is generally used to...

Most people are used to around 300 miles as the minimum ICE range and I contend all they are doing is reflecting that in this poll.

Not sure I fully agree. 'Cuz of two things, mainly:

1) It is a *Tesla* forum, after all. One would expect that a great many ppl here are EV owners or soon-to-be EV owners, and have already wrapped their head around the 'EV range paradigm'. They are not mentally fully in 'ICE world', as it were.

2) Average ICE range is 300 to 400 miles. And yet, in the poll, only 29% of ppl so far voted an option that was 300 miles or more as being minimum-acceptable EV range. Only 12% chose an option that was 350 miles or more. And only 6% chose an option that was 400 miles or more. IOW, these don't look like heavily ICE-influenced numbers.

Though, that said, I would agree with you that 'ICE expectations' do play some sort of role... just not an overriding one, not on a Tesla forum, judging by the poll results and generally more 'EV-oriented' mentality.

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[FutureShock]

In reality, I believe most people would benefit from their upper average daily driving range plus 35% for conditions that are less than ideal (ie. cold weather, hard accelerations and charging less than 100% to maintain battery health). What is your average daily drive? 100 miles? Let's do the math...100 miles + 35 miles for poor conditions = 135 miles.

Now, let's figure a 90% charge which would mean your pack would need a capacity of 150 miles. A more simple way to calculate this would be 1.5 times what your average daily travel distances are.

I think it depends on what 'role' you want your EV to play. Is it your family's 'second car', the 'around town' car that never really has to take a long road trip? In that case, a 150 mile range is certainly sufficient, yes.

The problem comes in when you want your EV to be your 'do anything' car, and/or your only car. In which case, that 150 mile range definitely becomes quite the handicap on longer road trips, supercharger network or no.

For example, I occasionally take 400 mile (800 mile roundtrip) road trips, from the SF Bay Area to Southern Oregon, or to Los Angeles.

With an ICE, I have one fueling stop, which I probably combine with a meal. So, like 30 minutes of downtime on my trip, which, all told, takes around 6 1/2 hours (6 hours of driving time).

With a 150 mile range EV, I'd have to make 3-4 charger stops along the way (certainly 4 with cold and/or bad weather). After all, I'm charging back to only 80%, if I'm being time-efficient, and chargers are not usually perfectly and/or evenly spaced.

So, that's what, 2 to 4+ hours of downtime on that trip, depending if I'm supercharger or chademo/CCS or a mix? My 6 1/2 hour trip becomes 8 to 10 hours. That is seriously tedious, to say the least, and many ppl wouldn't find it acceptable.

But with a 300 mile EV, I make ONE supercharger stop, combine it with a meal, and have maybe 40 minutes of downtime... pretty much the ICE 'gas up and have a meal' driving experience. And even with a non-Tesla EV and 50kW Chademo or CCS charging, a 10% –> 80% charge takes maybe a bit more than an hour during that *one* stop. Still fairly close to ICE driving time, overall.

So, it's all in the role you want your EV to play. 'Second car' or 'metro car'... yes, 150 miles will cover it. 'Long range car', 'do-it-all car'... not so much.

And a significant number of ppl do seem to want a 'do-it-all' EV... Tesla's entire approach has been built around that, and has been very successful. Not that there's not a market for short-range EVs too, as we see with the BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf.

But at the end of the day, if you want EVs to COMPLETELY replace ICE cars, you kinda do need long-range EVs. Even if they're not the entire EV market.

Manufacturers have to compete on something consumers can relate to. It goes back to that old belief (that is not necessarily true), "If a little is good, a lot must be better."

I think you hit the marketing angle right on the head. GM certainly seems to think so, hence the '300 miles or more' standard they're adopting for all their upcoming EV models.

And I'm pretty sure the upcoming Porsche Mission E (311 miles) and Lucid Air 'Launch Edition' (400 miles) will try to trade heavily on their range advantages. No doubt other automakers will try to follow the same angle.

After all, it's one of the few ways that a 'Johnny-come-lately' automaker can try to compete with Tesla in this space... unless or until Tesla decides to match or beat anything they do, across the entire line-up, range-wise.

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[RAW84]

After owning my P85D for 3 years now, I feel comfortable saying I'd "accept" 150 miles for car with the same performance and less than half the cost. Getting by in metro Boston would be a breeze with that range. I could find another way (rent a car, Amtrak, fly) to go on the few longer trips I took this year.

Still, when I buy my next one, I'm getting the maximum range I can afford. Hopefully over 500 miles. It's such a nice ride, I'd love to take it on longer trips but I'm not taking what would be a 15-18 hour trip in an ICE if it'll turn into a 24+ hour trip thanks to charging.

 

[FutureShock]

More on GM... they're not only going for 300+ miles of range on all their upcoming EVs, but have also done an about-face on supercharging as well. Which, as one of the three largest automakers in the world, should help pull other, competing car makers into the 'long range EV + supercharging' fold that Tesla originated.

Range anxiety, eat hot lead.


...The new platform allows a larger footprint and lower height, with improved DC fast charging (likely 150 kW or higher) planned.

...About-Face on Fast-Charger Support

[CEO Mary] Barra’s presentation also marked an abrupt change in direction for the company’s approach to DC fast charging, which can restore most of a battery charge in well under an hour. While in the past GM has seen this technology as ancillary and shrugged off any plan to build charging stations—a position nearly the polar opposite of what other automakers (such as Tesla with its Supercharger network) have pursued—Barra delivered quite a different position while laying out the company’s EV push.

“We are going to commit and play a role in accelerating the rollout of additional DC fast chargers, and we will work to look at what is the right EV charging infrastructure across the country and in other countries. We will either partner, incentivize, or invest to make sure that this customer pain point is removed,” she said. “Because it’s a customer issue, it’s an issue that General Motors will address.”

GM CEO Barra: Profitable, Affordable 300-Mile Electric Vehicles by 2021

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