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Changed mine just shy of four years old just because. Didn't have any problems with it but I was going on a long-ish trip and didn't want any problems in that area. I think I had about 20K miles on the car at the time.
I replaced mine last year (on my 2018 model 3P). I dont know how long it will last, but its relatively cheap enough that I considered it a disposable item. There is another thread here asking, basically, "should we preemptively replace the 12v in model 3s with lead acid batteries" and the general consensus was "yes because its cheap", although not everyone feels that way.