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Poll: How Many Model 3s Will Be Reserved In The First 24 Hours?

How many Model 3s will be reserved in the first 24 hours?

  • 0 to 10,000

    Votes: 34 16.1%
  • 10,001 to 20,000

    Votes: 37 17.5%
  • 20,001 to 30,000

    Votes: 38 18.0%
  • 30,001 to 40,000

    Votes: 20 9.5%
  • 40,001 to 50,000

    Votes: 24 11.4%
  • 50,001 to 100,000

    Votes: 40 19.0%
  • Greater then 100,000

    Votes: 18 8.5%

  • Total voters
    211
  • Poll closed .

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
16,529
38,766
Oregon
Hard to estimate. I can certainly see a crafty person with $50,000 making 50 separate reservations, with the scheme of selling off the reservation slots to others for a tidy profit.
Perhaps enough to allow him to keep the 50th reservation for himself.
(I guess I should check my credit limit.)

Reservations aren't transferrable. The only way that would work would be if that person bought the 50 cars and then re-sold them at a mark-up. But I think that would be hard since so many things go out the window on a "used" car. (Loan rates, ability to buy ESA, ability to buy pre-paid services, etc.)
 

Max*

Charging
Apr 8, 2015
6,672
3,835
NoVa
I vote 10k online and instores in the first 24 hours.


I know the forums here love Tesla, but a lot of outsiders are looking to see how Tesla does before buying one, even at a $35k barebones price.

In the US every year about 7.2million cars are sold. EVs have about a 1% marketshare (72k EV's per year, and growing). Let's assuming the Model 3 surges the EV takers just on release, so that's ~120k EV's sold per year. Considering there are 12 months in a year, if it were linear it'd be 10k in a MONTH (yeah yeah, car sales aren't linear). So I'll vote 10k in the first 24 hours.
 

eloder

Active Member
Mar 12, 2015
1,214
1,427
Ohio, USA
A good point brought up in another thread--

Is it hard to believe that there's at least one friend, family member, or coworker that wants to reserve a Model 3, of current Model S owners? 100k cars owners' one friend/coworker/family member = +1 Model 3 reservation.

I expect well over 100k before release, though in the first 24 hours I don't think it'll get to 50k.
 

Sudre

Active Member
May 30, 2012
1,065
6,981
There is no reason to rush with reservation on the first day and then wait xxx days for delivery

All I know is my (now 3 friends) and I that are reserving at the store will definitely be collecting on the 7500 tax credit while anyone else who puts off reserving is risking it running out because Tesla will produce over the 200K mark very shortly after the Model 3 comes out.

At only $1000 there is no reason to wait at all. You can get a refund and can defer the build as long as you want once production starts. If you know you are getting one why not get in line.

The 50,001 - 100,000 does not automatically mean the 18% (currently voted) think 100K but lets do a little math.
200 stores world wide.
24 hours.
That's 21 orders an hour for 100K but only 11 orders an hour for 50K+ which seems pretty doable. Will it happen.... well we shall see.
 

Max*

Charging
Apr 8, 2015
6,672
3,835
NoVa
All I know is my (now 3 friends) and I that are reserving at the store will definitely be collecting on the 7500 tax credit while anyone else who puts off reserving is risking it running out because Tesla will produce over the 200K mark very shortly after the Model 3 comes out.

At only $1000 there is no reason to wait at all. You can get a refund and can defer the build as long as you want once production starts. If you know you are getting one why not get in line.

The 50,001 - 100,000 does not automatically mean the 18% (currently voted) think 100K but lets do a little math.
200 stores world wide.
24 hours.
That's 21 orders an hour for 100K but only 11 orders an hour for 50K+ which seems pretty doable. Will it happen.... well we shall see.

You can't know that for sure. Also that means you so need to configure fully loaded cars, otherwise even with an early reservation number, you're going to get a later build.
 

Thora

Member
Jul 19, 2014
50
126
citi
All I know is my (now 3 friends) and I that are reserving at the store will definitely be collecting on the 7500 tax credit while anyone else who puts off reserving is risking it running out because Tesla will produce over the 200K mark very shortly after the Model 3 comes out.

At only $1000 there is no reason to wait at all. You can get a refund and can defer the build as long as you want once production starts. If you know you are getting one why not get in line.

The 50,001 - 100,000 does not automatically mean the 18% (currently voted) think 100K but lets do a little math.
200 stores world wide.
24 hours.
That's 21 orders an hour for 100K but only 11 orders an hour for 50K+ which seems pretty doable. Will it happen.... well we shall see.

You're right, ordering might turn into a race for a tax credit. There is no rush for a car, but there is a motivation to be eligible for a tax credit and hence need to be early.
 

Max*

Charging
Apr 8, 2015
6,672
3,835
NoVa
I could agree with that. Including my state rebate, that's the difference between $35,000 and $24,500.

Except that if you're ordering the $35k model, it will be build last, and even if you reserve early on, you might miss the rebate.

A more accurate statement would be the difference between $55k and $44500, or something
 

hdgmedic

Member
Sep 29, 2015
59
40
US
Just a heads up in case you're in MD, since I know of a $3k credit there, it expires mid-2017. So I'm not counting on that :(
Hopefully, it gets renewed like they've been doing. Also, when they've been renewing it, they've been increasing the rebate amount. It was much less in 2013.
 

Max*

Charging
Apr 8, 2015
6,672
3,835
NoVa
Most people are talking of at least TWO reservations in a family, proxy reservations for friends , neighbors and relatives are being discussed , I think 100,000 k will be reserved.

I think you have an extra "k", unless you mean 100 million cars reserved?

- - - Updated - - -

If you buy two cars in MD in the same year, can you get two $3k rebates? What about the $7.5k (twice)? My wife and I both plan on buying a loaded M3.

I don't recall on a limit on the number of times you can use the $7,500 rebate, as long as you paid $7,500*N in federal taxes that year.

<-not.a.cpa
 

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