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Poll: How much over sticker will the first Model 3's sell for on the open market?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by calisnow, Apr 3, 2016.


How many $ over sticker will the first 6 months of Model 3 deliveries trade at?

  1. $0 - nobody will be willing to pay over sticker despite the long waiting list

    7 vote(s)
  2. $1 - $2500

    2 vote(s)
  3. $2,500 - $5,000

    5 vote(s)
  4. $5,000 - $7,500

    5 vote(s)
  5. $7,500 - $10,000

    5 vote(s)
  6. Over $10,000 markup

    5 vote(s)
  1. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Oct 11, 2014
    Los Angeles
    It is likely that when the first Model 3's ship there will be a 24 month wait list for people reserving at that point. Initial reservations have been far higher than expected, so it seems likely that there will be not enough cars to fill demand in the first year.

    Many times in the past a hot production car has commanded large premiums on the secondary market for people who must "have it now."

    This poll is simply to gauge the community's predictions.

    Keep in mind I believe that "part 2" of the Model 3 reveal is going to have Elon telling the world that this car will ship with hardware capable of Level 4 autonomous driving (even though the software and the law may not have caught up yet) - and that is going to drive demand even further through the roof than it already is.

    So I'm sure I'm biasing the poll results here but I'll say it - I think that in the first 6 months of launch Model 3's will trade at $10K over sticker on the secondary market.
  2. ChadS

    ChadS Last tank of gas: March 2009. EV miles: 233,000

    Jul 16, 2009
    Redmond, WA
    I am sure that for a certain period of time there will be some premium.

    But I also assume there will be other cars available by then, and of course the Model S will still be around, so I think there will definitely be an upper bound on what somebody will pay to just get a 3 given that reasonable options exist. I mean, I'd prefer a smaller car than the S, but a lot of the reason the 3 is in such demand is the price. Raise that too much, and they might as well go to another option.
    • Like x 2
  3. PeteW

    PeteW Member

    Apr 3, 2016
    I don't think it'll be that much. With in-demand cars there's often a premium paid for immediacy, but normally this is on high-cost vehicles. I doubt anyone is going to pay $10k over retail when they could almost get a Model S for that.
  4. SOCALM3

    SOCALM3 Member

    Apr 2, 2016
    Menifee CA
    You've got about 150,000 people who pre-order who were thinking the same this was an iPhone. Anyone paying a premium just to be the first is crazy, unless gas consumption is really killing you there is no need to be the first. Once incentives are gone so will the demand.
  5. ibdb

    ibdb Any excuse for a road trip

    Apr 29, 2015
    Puyallup, WA
    I think there might be too many potential buyers to consider here. The base trim level is unlikely to demand a high premium because that buyer would appear to be highly price sensitive. A fully optioned model might appeal to a different potential buyer and might be able to ask a premium, but that premium is likely to have to keep the S in mind as a ceiling. It's going to depend on what the ≡ has that makes it truly distinctive besides the price and size.

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