[POLL] How much will the 75kWh upgrade cost?

[insaneoctane]

NOTE : If you think that the upgrade will be bundled, then please remove your opinion of the price/value of those upgrades and isolate the battery upgrade cost.

I posted some of this in my other thread, but I wanted to get poll results... What is the current speculation on 75kWh upgrade price? I know that Elon is on the record in stating that they were already below $190/kWh, but won't specify exactly how below. That means Tesla cost for 15 kWh is below $2,850. I strongly suspect that they will make this a high margin upgrade, unlike their most recent 60 kWh to 75 kWh MS upgrade ($2k or $133/kWh) or 70 kWh to 75 kWh MS upgrade ($500 or $100/kWh). At 75% margin, the 75 kWh upgrade could be offered for $5k.

 

[JoaoD]

I'm not sure about the price, but you have to remember that the $2k upgrade from 60kWh to 75kWh in the Model S cost Tesla $0 in hardware since the battery cells were already there and it was a software update.
In the case of the Model 3 there will most probably be two different physical packs, so if the cost and the margin were the same it would end up at about 4850$ using your numbers ($2850 for the cells themselves + $2k for the upgrade).

 

[JeffK]

We know is was < $190 / kWh and they were going to shortly achieve a 35% improvement in costs, meaning < $123 / kWh. We know the ultimate aim was < $100 / kWh
These new packs have fewer cells and far lower labor costs.

The actual cost is going to be far, far, lower than $5k. What matters most is how much tesla wants to charge (pun not intended).

 

[mrkymarc]

Yeah, I think anything less than $8k is unlikely and $10k-$12k range is more likely. Current Model S 75D to 100D upgrade is $23k for 25kWh. That includes air suspension and high amp charger so true cost is more like $20k. Using the same $/kWh the upgrade would cost $16k if it's 55->75 and $12k if it's 60->75. I don't expect Tesla to cut the $/kWh upgrade cost by more than half and the default assumption probably should be that it'll be the same as the S. Adding in the gigafactory and the lower base cost I think they'll lower the ratio a bit, though, so I'll predict $10k if its a 15kWh upgrade and $12k if it's a 20kWh upgrade.

 

[viperboy]

I think we're close to 10k. However, if they're only producing one battery and unlocking via software (a la 60 -> 75 for a while) it will be way cheaper.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I think 5k is most likely, but if base pack is 60 it could/should be lower.

 

[Big-T]

Personally, if it's over 5k I won't be upgrading to the larger battery pack. I'd rather spend it on other upgrades (assuming they're available)

 

[pkalhan]

@Big-T, I am with you. I do think it will be over $5k and closer to $10k. If the base battery gets me 250 miles of range though, I would be happy with the smaller battery.

 

[insaneoctane]

By the numbers of MS Battery upgrades, the extra kWh give you between 2.2mi/kWh and 2.7mi/kWh for the added battery capacity. That means an extra 30 to 40 miles from the upgrade. I, personally, can't justify anywhere near $10k for that.

 

[Polly Wog]

Four years ago, the cost to upgrade from the Model S 60 (original 60) to the 85 was $10K. That was a roughly 25 kWh upgrade. There is no way Tesla is going to charge $10K for a 15 kWh upgrade on the Model 3. It will likely be right around $5k, maybe even a little lower.

 

[gregincal]

Four years ago, the cost to upgrade from the Model S 60 (original 60) to the 85 was $10K. That was a roughly 25 kWh upgrade. There is no way Tesla is going to charge $10K for a 15 kWh upgrade on the Model 3. It will likely be right around $5k, maybe even a little lower.

Despite the fact that they charge $13K for the 15kWh upgrade from the Model S 75D to the 90D?

 

[JeffK]

Four years ago, the cost to upgrade from the Model S 60 (original 60) to the 85 was $10K. That was a roughly 25 kWh upgrade. There is no way Tesla is going to charge $10K for a 15 kWh upgrade on the Model 3. It will likely be right around $5k, maybe even a little lower.

The current markup per kwh is insane, it's more than double what it used to be. While rich people can afford that, Model 3 buyers cannot and should not.

If they used their old pricing at $400 / kWh and factored in their Gigafactory cost savings of 35% you'd have $260 / kWh or just under $4000 for the upgrade. This would still be huge margins as likely the extra 15 kWh costs less than $2000 to manufacture. At one time there was an upgrade that amounted to $366 / kWh

Right now that are charging between $750-920 / kWh for comparison.

 

[gregincal]

The current markup per kwh is insane, it's more than double what it used to be. While rich people can afford that, Model 3 buyers cannot and should not.

If they used their old pricing at $400 / kWh and factored in their Gigafactory cost savings of 35% you'd have $260 / kWh or just under $4000 for the upgrade. This would still be huge margins as likely the extra 15 kWh costs less than $2000 to manufacture. At one time there was an upgrade that amounted to $366 / kWh

Right now that are charging between $750-920 / kWh for comparison.

I agree that the current prices are insane, but how can they justify charging so much for the S upgrades and then make the 3 way cheaper, since batteries are batteries? They seem to have a general strategy right now of discouraging battery upgrades via pricing that may carry over to the 3. Elon's projected ASP of 42K would indicate he expects very few people to get the upgraded battery.

 

[Sonny Daze]

I suspect we will never know because it will be bundled with other items, like the air suspension and upgraded charger are now with the S100D.

 

[JeffK]

how can they justify charging so much for the S upgrades and then make the 3 way cheaper, since batteries are batteries?

This is a great time, because 2170s are not 18650s and the Gigafactory is supposed to bring down costs. They can use that as a justification. (See how great our Gigafactory is! )

I'm guessing when Model 3 comes out Model S prices will come down, especially when they transition to 2170s themselves.

 

[PRSIST]

I think you should have also asked how much we would have been willing to spend on the 75kWh upgrade. In my cost spreadsheet that I built to determine what I would or could afford to pay for the Model 3, I have the 75kWh upgrade at $6,500. I gleaned that amount from numerous sources on the Web. If it turns out to be more than that, I will very reluctantly have to stay with the lower pack. NOT what I want to do!

 

[insaneoctane]

The price will determine if I get the upgrade. Anyone think we could retro a bigger pack 5 years later? If so the price should have dropped even more....

 

[timk225]

The 60 to 75 upgrade better be a whole hell of a lot less than $5000! This isn't the luxury Tesla S or X for people who have more money than brains!

But in the same way that S and X battery upgrades got cheaper over time, I am half thinking to get the small battery now in hopes of a cheaper upgrade price later.

 

[gregincal]

The 60 to 75 upgrade better be a whole hell of a lot less than $5000! This isn't the luxury Tesla S or X for people who have more money than brains!

But in the same way that S and X battery upgrades got cheaper over time, I am half thinking to get the small battery now in hopes of a cheaper upgrade price later.

There's no way it's going to be a lot less than $5000. If you don't think it's worth it, then don't get it. Other EVs don't even offer you the choice.

 

[bonnie]

The 60 to 75 upgrade better be a whole hell of a lot less than $5000! This isn't the luxury Tesla S or X for people who have more money than brains!

But in the same way that S and X battery upgrades got cheaper over time, I am half thinking to get the small battery now in hopes of a cheaper upgrade price later.

You realize you just insulted a large number of forum members. Awesome!