Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Model 3' started by insaneoctane, Jun 8, 2017.
Maybe the upgrade will be a 80 KW. Would be a great package.
If Tesla's goal is still to get as many people in EVs as possible, I can't see them overpricing the range option or trying to bundle it into a more expensive package. Offering an affordable EV with range that beats every other non-Tesla EV on the market should be their focus. Based on everything I've seen on these forums, max range seems to be the most desired option, and a large range certainly would factor into getting more and more of the general public to adopt to EV, so keeping that max range option still affordable is key as it will be one of the distinct selling points for the Model 3.
Of course, this opinion might change if the range of the base model comes in significantly higher than 215 miles and beats out the Bolt. Then they can market the bigger battery as a "luxury". But if the larger battery is needed to beat out the competition in range, then I can't see them overpricing it.
Tesla has worked long and hard to get the mass market Model 3 ready. It is up to them not to screw this up by offering the $35,000 version only in a configuration that no one wants (like the black paint only and getting rid of white paint BS that they pulled on the Model S).
If they do it right, the profits will come. If they choose the wrong time (now) to get greedy, the bankruptcy lawyers will come. Don't cheap out on us, Tesla. Success or failure is in your hands!
I can resolve that one for you. Very slim to zero chance.
That's $33k in Model S options. $23.5k for 25 kWh 75-100, minus included air suspension on S, so call it $21.5k for 25 kWh, or $860/kWh times 15 for Model 3 60 to 75, would be $12.9k. Plus $5k dual-motor and $5k EAP. $22.9k at Model S pricing. I agree that we're going to see lower option prices on the 3. So let's cut that in half. $23k / 2 = $11.5k.
That would come to $46.5k. Take out EAP at half price and it's $44k, still a couple k over your estimate.
I can't see them dropping the options by more than half from S pricing with a reservation list hundreds of thousands deep, although I'd be delighted if you're right. A Model 3 75D with EAP is my target config, and if I could lock that in at $42k, I'd config that puppy and sign on the dotted line post-haste.
I was optimistic and voted $7.5 to $10k.
I see that we have some very, very optimistic people on this board.
Interestingly enough, the >$7500 crowd is making a strong comeback....almost 20%.....
Model S pricing is irrelevant because Model 3 is a different market. Demand is high for a vehicle marketed at $35,000. In 2013 Tesla was charging between $366 - $400 / kWh. Since then, costs have decreased significantly and even more so with 2170s.
GM is charging about $200 / kWh for the Bolt battery.
I honestly think the upgrade will be $2000 - 3000. If not, then that means they are trying to make up for losses in the base price of the car itself.
I actually wonder once Tesla adds AWD to the 3 if they will remove the RWD option from the big battery like they have done for the S. That could change the equation on pricing quite a bit for those that wait.
It's hard to figure this since we don't know how big of an upgrade in size the pack would be (55 kWh to 75 kWh perhaps, or 60 kWh to 75 kWh). I also think that a larger battery will come bundled with other premium features, so it would be difficult to separate the price.
I'm clearly in the minority here, but I think they would price a 55 kWh to 75 kWh upgrade alone at $10k. I think someone hoping to configure a version with 75 kWh battery, dual motors, and Autopilot will have to pay $50k+ for that.
Nope. The largest right now is 75kWh
Elon Musk on Twitter
I understand options are high margin and but unless you think that extra 15 kWh is also including a bunch of other stuff, how could you believe that those 15kWh cost more than $7500? That's more than $500 per kWh! Are you trying to say that a model 3 missing only it's battery back should cost less than 5k? That an out of warranty 75 pack would cost $37500?
This is not the $100k car market getting 400,000+ reservations, guys... this is competing in the $30k space (thanks tax credit). In the NW and being originally from Colorado, I think in terms of Subarus: comparing a Forester 2.5 Touring vs an XT touring (a $3,000 upgrade) gets you:
an engine with 50% more power, a stronger, faster transmission, better brakes, a wheel upgrade, upgraded suspension, etc.
Subaru sells way more of the ones without that 3k upgrade.... and you think people are going to be dropping $7500++ for 50 miles of range? Only if you commute more than 230 miles a day with no ability to charge at work.
I'll be thrilled if it's less than $7500. However I voted above $7500. Looking forward to it all coming out soon!
Well going from the 75D to the 100D on the Model S is a $23,000 upgrade, and near as I can tell the only extras included are air suspension and high amperage charger. For the Model X, it's a $17,000 upgrade, and I don't see any other additional equipment.
FWIW, I think the base Model 3 will have a 55 kWh battery, so I'm judging it as a 20 kWh battery upgrade.
This may not be the $100k car market, but it's not the $20k car market, either. Consider it costs $14,450 to upgrade from the BMW 320i to the BMW 340i, $11,000 to upgrade from the Audi A4 Premium to the Audio A4 Prestige, and $12,500 to upgrade from the Mercedes C300 to the AMG C43,
Also note that an analyst thinks that Tesla will be losing money by selling the base Model 3 at $35k, and they'll break even at $41k. Sure, they could be off the mark by quite a bit (I'm certainly skeptical of their methodology), but regardless it should be clear that Tesla will need to make a fair amount of money by selling options on the car.
Trust me, as a Model 3 reservation holder I sincerely hope that the upgrade costs less than $10k. I just think some of the predictions on here are overly optimistic. If I can get the Model 3 with a 75 kWh battery, dual motors, and enhanced autopilot for under $50k I will be thrilled. I'm very doubtful that will be the case, though.
While I understand the challenge of making an affordable long range EV also profitable, I have a hard time thinking the battery upgrade (assuming its 15kWh) is going to be more than $7,500 unless its packaged with other premium upgrades. Battery upgrade alone, I expect the cost to be right at $5K. If they need to charge $7.5-10K for a 15kWh upgrade in order to help offset losses on an unprofitable $35K base model (hypothetically speaking, not suggesting), I would rather them have priced it at $37.5 for the base model from the start.
While this forum is a skewed sample, I dare to say it seems at least > 50% on here would prefer the larger battery. That being said Elon tweeted that the average sales price for the 3 is projected to be ~42K if I remember correctly so I just can't imagine a larger battery costing more that $7500. You have to figure most will want at least EAP. If that pricing remains the same your looking at a $47,500 car with no options except a larger battery and EAP. At any rate when the design studio opens I think there will be more than a few with sticker shock when they start checking boxes.
I predict it will only cost $1,000 and they will throw in a date with Amber Heard. May not be realistic, but neither is most of the pained reasoning why Tesla should forego profit
Making a reasonable amount of money on options is one thing. Screwing us hardcore with their big battery for every little "option" is quite another thing.
That's why I will either wait for a metal roof or have a body shop do something to cover the glass roof, I have already researched it. That's why I will stick with the base radio and spend UNDER $200 to get my own Sirius Satellite Radio and put it in the car.
I do not like the idea of "wrapping" cars, but I might consider it if Tesla charges ridiculous amounts to paint the car anything other than basic black, like that BS they pulled on the Model S/X a while back.
a professionally wrap will cost significantly more than the upgraded paint price.
@timk225, melindav is correct, to completely wrap a car is going to be at least 3 times more than the upgraded paint price. I live in the same area as you and I looked into paint protection film for just the hood, front bumper, and front quarter panels and that is already over $1k.
What people are missing I think here is that the bigger battery will unleash better performance. They will probably use the 335i (now 340i) as a benchmark and try to beat it.
340i starting price: $47,900. 0 to 60 4.8 sec
That would make sense for tesla to charge a big premium for that, especially to not canibalize the model s.. so I think anything under $10k overly optimistic.