Poll: Model S/X owners with Model 3 Reservation

[Reciprocity]

There isn't a poll answer for my situation. I had an S, reserved for a 3 just in case. Never sure about it, just wanted to loan the company the $1000, add a vote of confidence and wait and see if it was worth getting. I cancelled my 3 reservation and got a model X. I am not sure how many of us there are, but I was never really serious about my 3 reservation and kind of always planned on cancelling it. Tesla is not harmed by this, but there are probably a few of us.

The reason why I did the poll the way I did was to exclude people who are taking actions that Tesla would not be concerned by. Someone who cancels a model 3 for an X is what they want. If they could sell half a million S/X they wouldn't be coming out with the 3. My goal is try to figure out what Tesla is concerned about as it relates to the 3 coming out. Looking at the results so far 28.4% either will be dumping their S/X for a 3 or are undecided. Now I wish I knew how many reservation holders or current owners. That number of undecided is very high. By the end of the year there will be about 280,000 S/X owners, if half have reservations that would be 140,000 which I think would be on the high end and would equate to almost 8000 new CPO coming into the market over the next 18 months or so, which is 444 a month world wide. Which is not that bad, but if you look at the undecided and break it into thirds. One third trade, one third keep their car and drop their reservation and one third keep their S/X and buy the 3(s). That's another 588 cars a month into the pre-owned market or about 1100 total. This is a pretty high estimate based on half of current owners having reservations, but I guess its possible, especially considering 150,000+ of those owners will be owners where the purchased happened after the model 3s initial reveal and at most, midway through their initial lease.

I think the group we want to look at are those who bought 3 years ago, 3 Years old in 2018:
Q1-2015 - ~10,000 ~3.3K a month
Q2-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month
Q3-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month
Q4-2015 - ~17,000 ~5.5K a month

When you put this into context, that is less then 1/3 of the 3 year old S/X being traded in or coming off leases, so that's not completely out of line when you think about 1100 pre-owned cars coming into the market, that might have happened without the 3 coming out with cars just coming off leases. Its important to think about these numbers as World wide so the impact in the US would be a little more then half half that total with 120 stores in the US and over 200 total world wide, that is 5.5 used cars per store..

I think the biggest concern that Tesla has with the 3 coming is a flood of S/X owners trading down to the 3 and the glut of used vehicles also impacting the growth of the S/X models going forward. What you would assume is that people coming of an S lease would buy and S/X not a 3. Could you see some people buying 2-3's instead of or in exchange for an S? Someone here posted a 3 for 1 so yes, that would be decent result for Tesla.

The number of undecided is the most concerning for Tesla, that number could flood the market with S/X or buy a ton of 3's. My hope is that they are just waiting for 3P75D at least, that should spread them out enough to lighten the impact on the used market and put them into a high margin 3.

At the end of the day, Demand seems high enough to soak up all cars Tesla can build and all the pre-owned cars that come into the market and with the Tax credit most likely expiring throughout 2018, that will drive a tremendous amount of demand for S/X because there will still be a long waiting list for Model 3.

 

[rcarpen22]

I chose undecided, but I will likely keep my Model S and cancel my Model 3 reservation. I personally just don't like the changes they have made since the initial reveal. I hate the new soft front end and the lack of awd is a deal breaker. I love my car and I'm not seeing anything to make me want a Model 3.

 

[Reciprocity]

I chose undecided, but I will likely keep my Model S and cancel my Model 3 reservation. I personally just don't like the changes they have made since the initial reveal. I hate the new soft front end and the lack of awd is a deal breaker. I love my car and I'm not seeing anything to make me want a Model 3.

Keeping your S and getting another S in the future when you hit 200k miles?

 

[brkaus]

I doubt a large number of S owners are going to instantly trade down. Once you have taken the "drive it off the lot" depreciation and have to pay taxes again, it really doesn't out that much money in your pocket. Especially since the first model is similar to the s60/70 without D or P.

I will say, if the 3 was out, I likely, at the time, would have purchased a 3 and a small SUV instead of dropping $100k on a large sedan. Not because I dislike the S, but I stepped up a great deal to get the S because of lack of interesting (to me) cars on the market.

 

[Reciprocity]

I doubt a large number of S owners are going to instantly trade down. Once you have taken the "drive it off the lot" depreciation and have to pay taxes again, it really doesn't out that much money in your pocket. Especially since the first model is similar to the s60/70 without D or P.

I will say, if the 3 was out, I likely, at the time, would have purchased a 3 and a small SUV instead of dropping $100k on a large sedan. Not because I dislike the S, but I stepped up a great deal to get the S because of lack of interesting (to me) cars on the market.

I like where this is trending in terms of folks who would like 2 Tesla's vs 1, even if it means 2 3's or a 3 and a Y instead of a single Tesla S/X. I cant afford 2x 100k cars so I going one X and one 3. But we are also looking at the Pacifica mini van because my wife only drives about 900 miles a month. She probably wouldn't fill her tank more then 3-4 times a year. Solar coming next month as well.

 

[rcarpen22]

Keeping your S and getting another S in the future when you hit 200k miles?

Possibly. I may even get a 3 eventually (when awd and P models become available). If I do cancel my reservation, it won't be until I've had a chance to experience the 3 in person.

 

[RayCzar]

I'm undecided though mostly because I really like hatchbacks and the Model 3's fixed trunk is a bit of a downer. Still, the 3 would be my wife's city car so it may not be that big of an issue for her but we'll cross that bridge when the design studio system is actually open to us. By that time, I'll know about what the car will offer, what it will cost and if it's worth it for us or if we're going to wait.

 

[wwu123]

I'm not really sure that Elon's concern is that existing Model S owners are planning to "trade down" to a Model 3, and as the poll results already suggest, most Model S owners are planning to keep their existing car AND get a Model 3.

I think the Osborning effect is that potential first-time Model S purchasers in the next two years are among the 500,000 who have put down a Model 3 reservation thinking they'll get one of those in the same timeframe. I mean, how many households have a need (not desire) to purchase 2 brand-new cars within the same 1-2 year period, let alone two EVs/sedans from the same manufacturer?

A lot of folks on this forum seem to either trade up every few years, or are in a position to lease a different new car every three years, but I'm guessing the vast majority of households are more like mine, and only have a need to buy one new/used vehicle every five years or so, regardless of price. That said, as a new Model S owner, I do have a Model 3 reservation as well, and might be compelled to sell/trade in the other ICE car ahead of my usual cadence - that car will likely be 11-12 years old by the time my Model 3 reservation comes up - I'm guessing in late 2018 to sometime in 2019.,..

 

[dgpcolorado]

I am leaning toward canceling my Model 3 reservation and either keeping my Model S60 or trading it in for another CPO Model S with a bigger battery (for faster Supercharging). I don't care for the Model 3 dash (lack of an instrument cluster is a major fail for me; I don't care at all about AP or FSD because they are useless where I live so I want instruments), the lack of a lift back, and the greatly reduced storage space (no putting my bicycle in the 3, which would mean the nuisance and drag of a hitch-mount bike rack). I just like the Model S much more than what I know of the 3, so far, and the large size of the S isn't a problem with only one car in a two car garage.

 

[Shock-On-T]

The reason why I did the poll the way I did was to exclude people who are taking actions that Tesla would not be concerned by. Someone who cancels a model 3 for an X is what they want. If they could sell half a million S/X they wouldn't be coming out with the 3. My goal is try to figure out what Tesla is concerned about as it relates to the 3 coming out. Looking at the results so far 28.4% either will be dumping their S/X for a 3 or are undecided. Now I wish I knew how many reservation holders or current owners. That number of undecided is very high. By the end of the year there will be about 280,000 S/X owners, if half have reservations that would be 140,000 which I think would be on the high end and would equate to almost 8000 new CPO coming into the market over the next 18 months or so, which is 444 a month world wide. Which is not that bad, but if you look at the undecided and break it into thirds. One third trade, one third keep their car and drop their reservation and one third keep their S/X and buy the 3(s). That's another 588 cars a month into the pre-owned market or about 1100 total. This is a pretty high estimate based on half of current owners having reservations, but I guess its possible, especially considering 150,000+ of those owners will be owners where the purchased happened after the model 3s initial reveal and at most, midway through their initial lease.

I think the group we want to look at are those who bought 3 years ago, 3 Years old in 2018:
Q1-2015 - ~10,000 ~3.3K a month
Q2-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month
Q3-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month
Q4-2015 - ~17,000 ~5.5K a month

When you put this into context, that is less then 1/3 of the 3 year old S/X being traded in or coming off leases, so that's not completely out of line when you think about 1100 pre-owned cars coming into the market, that might have happened without the 3 coming out with cars just coming off leases. Its important to think about these numbers as World wide so the impact in the US would be a little more then half half that total with 120 stores in the US and over 200 total world wide, that is 5.5 used cars per store..

I think the biggest concern that Tesla has with the 3 coming is a flood of S/X owners trading down to the 3 and the glut of used vehicles also impacting the growth of the S/X models going forward. What you would assume is that people coming of an S lease would buy and S/X not a 3. Could you see some people buying 2-3's instead of or in exchange for an S? Someone here posted a 3 for 1 so yes, that would be decent result for Tesla.

The number of undecided is the most concerning for Tesla, that number could flood the market with S/X or buy a ton of 3's. My hope is that they are just waiting for 3P75D at least, that should spread them out enough to lighten the impact on the used market and put them into a high margin 3.

At the end of the day, Demand seems high enough to soak up all cars Tesla can build and all the pre-owned cars that come into the market and with the Tax credit most likely expiring throughout 2018, that will drive a tremendous amount of demand for S/X because there will still be a long waiting list for Model 3.

Don't forget you're polling a self-selected group, ie. those that sit reading a Tesla forum.
I'd say the Model S/X owners reading (and typing like me) on this forum care more about Tesla and the Model 3 than those owners who are just driving around.

 

[Reciprocity]

Don't forget you're polling a self-selected group, ie. those that sit reading a Tesla forum.
I'd say the Model S/X owners reading (and typing like me) on this forum care more about Tesla and the Model 3 than those owners who are just driving around.

I understand that and agree, but that is a very high number of undecideds for a group that is hyper focused on the subject. Almost have to do another poll to try to figure out what they are waiting to see to pull the trigger.

 

[oktane]

I'm turning my one $155,000 P100D into 4 $40,000 Model 3's. They will all have FSD and do my bidding via smartphone app. It will be my personal army of cars.