The reason why I did the poll the way I did was to exclude people who are taking actions that Tesla would not be concerned by. Someone who cancels a model 3 for an X is what they want. If they could sell half a million S/X they wouldn't be coming out with the 3. My goal is try to figure out what Tesla is concerned about as it relates to the 3 coming out. Looking at the results so far 28.4% either will be dumping their S/X for a 3 or are undecided. Now I wish I knew how many reservation holders or current owners. That number of undecided is very high. By the end of the year there will be about 280,000 S/X owners, if half have reservations that would be 140,000 which I think would be on the high end and would equate to almost 8000 new CPO coming into the market over the next 18 months or so, which is 444 a month world wide. Which is not that bad, but if you look at the undecided and break it into thirds. One third trade, one third keep their car and drop their reservation and one third keep their S/X and buy the 3(s). That's another 588 cars a month into the pre-owned market or about 1100 total. This is a pretty high estimate based on half of current owners having reservations, but I guess its possible, especially considering 150,000+ of those owners will be owners where the purchased happened after the model 3s initial reveal and at most, midway through their initial lease. I think the group we want to look at are those who bought 3 years ago, 3 Years old in 2018: Q1-2015 - ~10,000 ~3.3K a month Q2-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month Q3-2015 - ~12,000 ~4K a month Q4-2015 - ~17,000 ~5.5K a month When you put this into context, that is less then 1/3 of the 3 year old S/X being traded in or coming off leases, so that's not completely out of line when you think about 1100 pre-owned cars coming into the market, that might have happened without the 3 coming out with cars just coming off leases. Its important to think about these numbers as World wide so the impact in the US would be a little more then half half that total with 120 stores in the US and over 200 total world wide, that is 5.5 used cars per store.. I think the biggest concern that Tesla has with the 3 coming is a flood of S/X owners trading down to the 3 and the glut of used vehicles also impacting the growth of the S/X models going forward. What you would assume is that people coming of an S lease would buy and S/X not a 3. Could you see some people buying 2-3's instead of or in exchange for an S? Someone here posted a 3 for 1 so yes, that would be decent result for Tesla. The number of undecided is the most concerning for Tesla, that number could flood the market with S/X or buy a ton of 3's. My hope is that they are just waiting for 3P75D at least, that should spread them out enough to lighten the impact on the used market and put them into a high margin 3. At the end of the day, Demand seems high enough to soak up all cars Tesla can build and all the pre-owned cars that come into the market and with the Tax credit most likely expiring throughout 2018, that will drive a tremendous amount of demand for S/X because there will still be a long waiting list for Model 3.