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POLL: No, ME first!: A question on priority

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by ELRev, Mar 23, 2016.

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Who do you think will receive their Model 3 first?

  1. Customer A: Current Tesla owner living on the US East Coast orders xxD Model 3

    6 vote(s)
    11.5%
  2. Customer B: Non-Tesla owner/employee living on the US West Coast orders XXD Model 3

    23 vote(s)
    44.2%
  3. Customer C: Non-Tesla owner/employee living on the US East Coast orders PXXD Model 3

    23 vote(s)
    44.2%
  1. ELRev

    ELRev Member

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    It's clear that everyone is anxiously contemplating where they'll fall on the priority list after placing a reservation for their future Model 3 next week. So, let's start with what we know. We know that Tesla has explicitly stated that the following three factors will impact the eventual manufacturing and delivery dates of each Model 3 purchased:

    -Current Tesla Owners/Employees
    -Price Point (Highest-optioned cars made first)
    -Location (West to East, starting in the US)

    Starting with lessons from Tesla's history, does anyone have any concept of the hierarchical relationship between theses three factors as they pertained to sales of the Model S/X?

    Additionally, to incite some dialogue on this subject, what would you expect, or what do you hope, to be the eventual relationship between these three factors? Which will hold more weight? You can vote in the poll or simply comment sharing your thoughts. I myself am as-of-yet undecided, but I hope history suggests one way or another, and if not, I'd love to be convinced.

    (For simplicity, lower-case 'xx' symbolizes the smaller battery option, while 'XX' symbolizes the larger battery option)

    Also, the poll is a rough sketch of something I thought would make sense. If anyone has any option/alteration suggestions, I'm open to hearing them.
     
  2. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    Selfishly, I hope it's West Coast non-owners first. I'm sure West Coast current owners with high-spec options will be the very first. I'm perfectly happy hanging on to my current car for the next 18-24 months, so I'm not in a particular hurry.
     
  3. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    I doubt they will have any none-PxxD in production initially, so the east coaster who orders a PxxD will get theirs before a west coast non-P order.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. Sp4rky

    Sp4rky Member

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    #4 Sp4rky, Mar 23, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2016
    I think you forgot this option:
    Non-Tesla owner/employee living on the US WEST Coast orders PXXD Model 3, as that will be me.;)

    I believe Model X production was something like finalized configuration order, location (region), then vehicle type.

    I think it all comes down this:
    Configuration (not reservation) submission time -> Most highly configured cars -> Region -> Employee\Owner\Non-owner status

    Reservation does matter as let say #'s 1-1000 would get their invitations to configure first. Tesla has sent out batches of these emails for the Model X. However, if you sit on your invitation to configure, whoever behind you that confirms their configuration before you would be seeing their Model 3 first.

    So a P70D Model 3 configured within 60 seconds of the config email being sent out for a current owner that lives on the west coast will be receiving their Model 3 first. If someone living on the east coast (non-owner) orders a P70D Model 3 and configures within 60 seconds, they will get their car before the west-coast owner ordering a 70D (or whatever the base model is, for example 60).

    Hope that makes sense!
     
  5. ELRev

    ELRev Member

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    Didn't forget! I think we all know the answer if that's an option :) You're in a great position. Yes, anyone who's a Tesla employee/owner on the West Coast or non-Tesla owner on the West Coast ordering a PXXD will get their car before anyone in any of the scenarios above. My question is which aspect weighs more heavily.

    Relevant to you, the question that add to mine would be: Do you get your car before a Tesla employee ordering a PXXD on the East Coast?
     
  6. BrianC

    BrianC Member

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    I just hope they have a 3 tier car ordering system that are 35k -> 40k -> 50k in price (or something in the lines) and go away from the fully custom every order one like they have for the S and X. It slows production down and really sucks reselling/finding a "good price" for 2nd owners. When you need to see what options the five cars you're looking at and what they cost sticker compared to what is being offered it really makes it hard to find good values
     
  7. Sp4rky

    Sp4rky Member

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    Sorry, it took me a while to get my thoughts out. See my revised post.
    I would imagine I would be getting my PXXD before the employee on the East coast if I'm in the first batch of configuration invites. Again, that makes a HUGE difference.
     
  8. ELRev

    ELRev Member

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    I believe it does. So that adds an additional layer to it in that you're suggesting batches of West Coast-ers will be seeing configuration emails before ANYONE on the East Coast. The question, then, is will they send out Design Studio invites (i.e. configuration emails) to EVERYONE on the West Coast first before moving East? What's the time frame on one group receiving invites before the next? And if people on the West Coast configure their cars before people on the East Coast even receive their email, will they also receive their car first? Or do West Coast-ers who don't configure a PXXD model automatically get pushed back in line until they have all (let's say U.S.) configurations? If the above is untrue, then where do they draw the line and start sending config. emails to East Coast-ers after they've started filling West Coast orders?

    Lots of questions, but this is actually a really complicated concept. I have no idea how specifically they break down their manufacturing and delivery process as these details are concerned, but I find it really interesting. One particular decision one way or another could potentially affect a Model 3 customer's spot in line by thousands of people.
     
  9. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    My guess is that they will start by sending invites to the west coast and work east (although the layering of current versus non current owners I'm not sure about). However, people who don't configure higher end versions will get pushed back and an east coaster ordering the highest version will get their car before a west coaster ordering a lower version.

    My reasoning is that more revenue from higher spec cars is more important to Tesla than batching by geography. The owner perk is just about configuring somewhat earlier, but I think they're expecting more higher end configs from existing owners and if you configure low you get dumped down in priority.
     
  10. Sudre

    Sudre Member

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    I think there is going to be a really large numbers of existing customers in California reserving cars so I don't think they will get to the non-customer in California for quite some time. If they send out configure e-mails to the first 10,000 people per region starting in California then that won't get anywhere near the non-customers in California.... much less WA, OR, NV

    I think East coast will also see a lot of existing customers reserving Model 3 but not as many as West. That means a few East coast non-customers might get their cars before they get thru the volume on the West coast. Maybe on the second round of configures.

    The Midwest non-customers might actually have a good chance to see cars before East or West coast non-customers because there are fewer existing customers in the head of the line. Texas can throw a wrench in it because there are a lot of existing owners there.

    Mountain time zone just might be the best option. Any big Tesla owning states in the Mountain time zone?

    The catch I find to this process that makes it more difficult to figure out is the 'fairness' Tesla is trying to throw in the mix. Completely changes the whole S & X roll out.
     
  11. Sp4rky

    Sp4rky Member

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    Im not a 100% on this, but using past info and making Tesla the most profit, this is how I would do it:

    Now, I'm not sure about the order of the configuration emails now that they've changed the reservation time to localize to each area. If I were to make an educated guess, I would say they would then send out invites to each region at the same time (again, let's use the #1-1000) logic). If that is indeed the case, then those thousand people should configure ASAP.

    Then, Tesla would sit down and extract the PXXD models out of those configurations (with perhaps another $5k in options or what not). They would then say, ok, these PXXD models placed in area # 1 (west coast) are going to be delivered first. Now, the owner versus non-owner comes into play. Owners would get their PXXD models first, followed by non-owners in that area. Everybody ordering anything less than a PXXD in area #1 is pushed to the back of the line. Area #2 (Rocky Mountain region for example) is up next. PXXD's for that region are delivered to owners then non-owners, and so on for the rest of the US.

    After ALL of the PXXD models are delivered, Tesla repeats the process with the lesser models. This maximizes profit by delivering the most expensive Model 3's first.

    Again, I want to stress this is one gigantic educated guess, but this is how Tesla makes the most profit off of the Model 3 initially.
     
    • Informative x 1
  12. raysspl

    raysspl Member

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    Current Tesla owners in the West Coast are first going to receive their cars. I think it's going to run in parallel with Tesla employees, too.
     
  13. ELRev

    ELRev Member

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    I considered this idea. I'm not sure if Tesla cares about reigning in expectations by not sending Design Studio invites too early, i.e. to East Coast people at the same time as West Coast-ers. I suppose they could just get everyone's order at once and prioritize from there. Another question I'd have is, by the time they start delivering PXXDs on the East Coast, will they have received configs from every single person who has reserved one? Or once they've delivered the entirety of the first batch of PXXDs nationwide, will they send more Design Studio invites, will they start on the XXDs, or will they ship PXXDs abroad? I understand your idea of "rinse and repeat" with the lesser models, but this is kind of a "chicken and egg" question.
     
  14. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I'm not sure they even know the answers to all these questions, and if past rollouts is any indication we'll still be guessing at the answers even after the cars have shipped. Reserve as soon as you can, finalize as soon as you can, and you'll get your car when you get it. Generally the wait is agony, but once you get the car you forget about it.
     

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