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POLL: Q3 2013 ER Sentiment and Play
- Thread starter RobotGrease
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- TSLA
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
A lot of tech companies have been rising into earnings, getting the results of earnings, and heading downhill. If tesla rallies through 180, which i doubt it will do, I'll be taking some money off the table.
However, I think it's much more likely we see the 157-159 side of things and stall there for the rest of the week. The lower tesla is, the more likely a pop will occur, so I'll prob keep my 190 strike dec options and shares through earnings. I'm sitting on a loss on the 190's, but I think that it's possible to hedge them out after a successful earnings with 220 contracts and come out profitable. In fact, I'll prob butterfly them and sell off twice as many 220-240 contracts if we get an earnings beat and pop.
I don't find the poll answers sufficient. I'm extremely long/bullish on TSLA but Q3? Meh, too short term for me to worry about. I think guidance will be revised upwards, and the news will be generally good to great. But I'm already all in. I'm more interested in Q3 2016, Q3 2019 than Q3 2013.
So, "Very bullish, but sitting this one out" would be my choice if it was available.
So, "Very bullish, but sitting this one out" would be my choice if it was available.
No one ever does :wink:. its hard to get the perfect options. "Very bullish, but sitting this one out" is essentially the second option as it is implied that you are very bullish if you are holding onto your core holdings through a big ER like this one. But I do agree, the second option should start with the word Bullish and the second to last should start with the word Bearish, not with "Unsure".
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I'm not sure what we are going to learn from this poll other than the fact that everyone on the tesla forum is bullish?
In the past, I probably would have agreed with you. However, this time around, I believe there is a large divergence of sentiment and expectations, even on TMC. The general theme and long-term outlook might be bullish for most TMC members, but we are just trying to gauge this ER specifically (as implied in the title of the thread, the first post, and the poll question).
I'll agree that lately it seems many have developed a more cautious short term outlook. Given the recent price action that is completely understandable. Based off your poll though, it appears we are still confident about whats to come. Hopefully this all pans out the way it should.
I think many of the regular forum members have sold TSLA altogether or large parts of their portfolios. A few have said so plainly, many are quiet about it. I would say the sentiment is not good right now. Longer term bull.
I didn't answer the poll but here is an explanation of my sentiment and play going into earnings.
I was stopped out of my long stock position today as a defensive play to protect the profit made since May. I would have gotten out earlier but didn't because I thought TSLA would recover and edge up to the 180s+ by now. But since it didn't and we're in a massive downtrend, I made the play that I made and looking to buy back in before earnings to play the swing.
Based on the technicals that I'm seeing, I'm hoping to re-enter with a long stock position at 155 or lower. Knowing myself, I just might wait until the few minutes before the market closes next Tuesday and if TSLA is taking a beating, I'm all in. If TSLA is up in a massive way that day, I might just sit on the sidelines for Q3 earnings. In short I have two buy in points, ~155 or any price the day of earnings so long as it isn't rocketing that day before the close.
With all that said, regardless of what plays I make the next week, I'm very bullish about TSLA as long as the price stays at these levels or lower going into earnings. At 178 and higher on earnings day, all bets are off and it can go in either direction.
I was stopped out of my long stock position today as a defensive play to protect the profit made since May. I would have gotten out earlier but didn't because I thought TSLA would recover and edge up to the 180s+ by now. But since it didn't and we're in a massive downtrend, I made the play that I made and looking to buy back in before earnings to play the swing.
Based on the technicals that I'm seeing, I'm hoping to re-enter with a long stock position at 155 or lower. Knowing myself, I just might wait until the few minutes before the market closes next Tuesday and if TSLA is taking a beating, I'm all in. If TSLA is up in a massive way that day, I might just sit on the sidelines for Q3 earnings. In short I have two buy in points, ~155 or any price the day of earnings so long as it isn't rocketing that day before the close.
With all that said, regardless of what plays I make the next week, I'm very bullish about TSLA as long as the price stays at these levels or lower going into earnings. At 178 and higher on earnings day, all bets are off and it can go in either direction.
LOL, I don't know how I did that. If you are wondering who is holding core bearish positions that is me except I really meant to say I am holding core bullish positions. Is there any way to change my vote?
Zzzz...
Member
ROFL at you!
I think current valuation is based on a long term vision that Tesla is on the road to produce 300k cars a year and will produce them with good gross and operating margins. So $3.7 billion gross profit in 2018 or around, $2.3 billion earnings, ~$15 EPS. Apply 15 to 30 P/E to that earnings, depends how you think Tesla would grow from that point and you will get fair valuation in 2018.
In this context Tesla's Q3'13 report is contributing primarily by retiring risks that Tesla potentially facing on that road to abovementioned EPS.
Main short term question: have Tesla archived ~20% automotive gross margins excluding ZEV in Q3? In Q2 they had almost 14%(13.9% IIRC) GM. Tesla guidance for Q4 is "at least 25%". If Tesla got 20+%, good, Mister Market reaction would be slightly positive one.
Second big risk is a demand. First, have sales of Model S grew in Q3? What about guidance for Q4? And if TM could reinforce or even increase 35k units guidance for the year 2014, that would add some upward pressure too. But not much - some risks would not be answered by Q3 or Q4 reports. Like would Tesla be able to to start production of Gen3 in time, what would be demand for it, what gross margins will Gen3 have. And will demand for S and X combined reach 70k units worldwide eventually etc and so on.
I personally expect either slightly positive market reaction or neutral one. Add high TSLA volatility on top, and who knows which way price will swing the day after report will be released. But each good news is slowly but surely gets us closer to $300-$400 TSLA price range.
That's funny. Sorry, no way to change it that I know of. Mods?
Looking for more poll responses. So far, its interesting to see so many bulls on the fence about Q3.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
seeing this makes me think we're all -everyone on this board-going to get wiped out on the one earnings time when elon doesn't throw us a bone and blow out results.
Does anyone here worry about confirmation bias with so many people who are long/long with options only seeing the rosy side of tesla?
I don't think its that we all see only the rosy side of Tesla, but rather the TRUTH about Tesla. We follow this company so closely its ridiculous. If the bottom line changed, I'm sure so would the opinion of many here.
Zzzz...
Member
Hey, no options here. Do not see a point of gambling with this volatility and valuation. Even Musk said couple times that valuation market gives TSLA is a generous one for right now. So I'm long. For very long term.
We got that delusional Realist guy around
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