Problem is, it doesn't actually matter at all. what matters is that they must exceed the analysts projections, not their own. This is a no-win situation, because if you set your guidance right on, and get it right, you may not meet what some analyst thought you would do (number they pulled out of thin air) But if you adjust your guidance downward so that you always exceed your own guidance, you might get away with it one or two quarters, but after that the analysts will notice that you always beat by a certain amount, and they'll expect at least that amount in future.
So in short, it doesn't matter how well you do compared to your own guidance, the only way to "win" is to do better than anyone expects, which is hard as you have to do exponentially better each quarter or you'll just be barely meeting expectations.