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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Thomas Edison, May 6, 2018.
Figured we need an updated poll
I expect a big announcement on Mon July 2nd 2018 either way. Bigger if they make the Q3 trigger, quieter if they trigger in Q2, but either way I'd expect twitter and blog and website updates.
at this rate feels like Q3.
Has there been any invites since the big 4/18 batch?
I don’t see any threads on it.
Unless they start shipping to Europe I don't see how they can do it. There aren't enough Canadian service centers. Wouldn't they need to deliver fewer cars than they delivered in Q1?
Hoping it's Q3 so I'll be sure to get the rebate on the dual motor (maybe even performance!).
They can deliver just as many US cars in May and June as they did in April and still not go over. They can even increase the output to the US vs April and still not go over.
April 2018 from for the US is 6,150 for S, 3, X combined, 16,199 / 2 = 8099.5 per month which is more than they did in April would put them right at 200,000.
Keep in mind US deliveries of Model 3 for March and April were both around 3800 (3820 and 3875). Assuming a similar ratio for 3 to S/X there is room to increase Model 3 deliveries by almost 2,000 a month before you send any to Canada.
Any Canadian deliveries would be on top of what they do for the US and don't count towards the 200,000 but allow them to produce and deliver.
As to your Q1 question, they can deliver way more than they did in Q1 and not go over. The Q1 figure for Model 3 was 8,180. For Q2 they've already delivered 3875 and have room for over 5,000 Model 3 a month for May and June in the US (plus thousands of S and thousands of X each month as well). They could literally deliver more than twice as many Model 3 in the US in Q2 than they did in Q1, not reduce Model S or Model X deliveries to the US and still not hit 200,000.
The total allowed for US delivery in Q2 would be 22,349. 6,150 of that was used in April, Leaving 8099 for May, and 8100 for June or some other combination that is less than 22,349 for Q2.
So I don't see how it's even an issue. They don't have to reduce the production, in fact they can increase it substantially and still be fine.
For some reason they deliver way more Model S and Xs towards the end of the quarter. They delivered 9,800 S/X in Q1. If they match that and deliver 3,875 3s a month that makes it 21,425 so I guess it's possible. But 3,875 is only 1k cars a week when they claim to be ramping up to 5k a week by the end of the quarter.
Does anyone have any idea how many are being delivered to Canada?
Anecdotally they're getting delivered at rate of about one a week to my office parking lot in San Diego. haha
They should be able to do 2,000 a week or better in May (ramping towards 3,000), and over 3,000 a week in early/mid June (ramping towards 4,000). The goal is to be able to hit 5,000 a week on the June 30th/July 1st cusp not to actually produce 5,000 a week before that.
If they can, they just turn the rate up to max come June 22th or so (giving time to finish and ship cars that won't be delivered until after July 1st) and hope its over 4,500 a week at that point. If they hit 5,000+ on a week it'll be a nice surprise but I'm betting they won't freak if its 4,569 or 4,982 instead (any number over 4,000 a week would be an improvement they'd tout).
Keep in mind there may be a week somewhere in that mix that is a 0 or sub 2,000 if they have a shutdown to expand a portion of the line. You don't ramp from 2,000 a week to 5,000 a week without issues in between.
As Tesla reports sales (deliveries) on a quarterly bases, they always make a big push at quarter end to maximize their deliveries for the quarter (also, they tend to ship international sales early in the quarter to get them in by quarter end which also leads to lower deliveries early in the quarter vs quarter end).
As part of the 200k delay tactic, I feel that Tesla will delay the S & X deliveries in June to July (either by delay the U.S. delivery or shipping a higher number internationally). Tesla June deliveries for S & X will look bad but their Q3 deliveries should be considerably higher.
Why would they delay S/X when they can delay 3 instead?
They sell S&X in more markets so they can shift US sales to those markets (the same way they are shifting 3 sales to Canada). As far as domestic sales, I think they will only delay their typical quarter end push to beginning of July.
For the last few years they build foreign destined S and X in the first part of a quarter, then switch over to domestic for the second part. The Inside EVs numbers are US deliveries only, but they deliver a lot of international cars late in a quarter too because of shipping time.
They can do several things to push the threshold back. Shipping Model 3s to Canada is one of them. Another thing they could do is make Model 3s for all the showrooms. Most Tesla stores do not have Model 3s yet. They could burn up at least a week's production making inventory cars that go to stores.
Finally they can stockpile cars at the end of the quarter. Service/delivery centers around the US can be filled up with cars awaiting delivery and they could park the extra in various places. Satellite images show a large area cleared near the GigaFactory that happened a couple of weeks ago. Rumor says it will be the new employee parking lot, which is probably true, but they could park a heck of a lot of production cars there for a few weeks before opening it up for employees.
Stashing cars in Nevada would add costs for shipping. The cars would have to be shipped twice, but they would be stored in a secure lot and it would make Tesla money in the backend. Their Q2 profits would be down, but Q3 and Q4 would be massively profitable as Model 3 production cranks up and a lot of people try to jump in before the incentive expires.
I think all Canadians will have a chance to get their Model 3 this year.
from the Q1'18 Update Letter (see ir.tesla.com) in the Outlook section they stated:
"We are in the process of changing the quarterly production pattern of Model S and X vehicles for the various worldwide regions
to ensure a more linear flow of deliveries through the quarter."
That sounded to me like US deliveries would not necessarily be packed for the end of the quarter.
With the recent shut downs of the model 3 line, including the one scheduled for the end of this month for 6 days, it looks more and more like it's going to be Q3.
I don't think Tesla wants it in Q2. Elon tweeted that they would adjust timing to maximize rebates if it was practical, and it sure looks like they'll be able to put the 200k car in the first week of July pretty easily.
I think you are right even though only a month ago I voted the other way.
What's interesting is that six months ago virtually nobody thought they'd be able to stretch it out to Q3 for the beginning of the phaseout, even with their early production hurdles... now it is looking increasingly like it is going to be a certainty.
The pessimistic side of me also wonders if they are doing this because they know that without the tax credit they will have a much harder time selling the $50K trim level of the car once the $35K short range version is available.... and the profit margin on the $35K version might be zero or negative.
They could also build up a small fleet of loaner M3's for when customers cars are in the service center, which is happening a lot.
I'd agree it's a contributing factor. For people who count money and compromise on options to fit the car into their budget it will be a lot harder to justify higher costs w/ reduced tax credit and $35k version available. So, this benefits majority - higher # of buyers and Tesla (although not those waiting for the base model).
In 2019 Q1 profits should be lower as remaining U.S. $35k orders are delivered. Although they'll be chugging along international orders at that point, so it definitely won't be 100% of $35k configurations. Once there's no line anymore, it'd be interesting to see what's the real percentage of the higher trims. It might be lower on average and they may need to improve on efficiency and lower costs to remain profitable.
Or they can actually deliver 5,000 of interior and exterior upgrades to justify the price.
A glass roof, better stereo and vinyl don’t justify the $5K in my opinion.
Power-everything and heated seats also count for something. "Better materials" - we have not yet seen what will they use in non-PUP. Maybe it will change people's opinion about PUP drastically
Alcantara is likely not a deciding factor for most even if they were to add it back to PUP...
Not sure what else they can add...heated steering wheel is probably not a high priority item.