TT97
Active Member
Assuming the 193,880 is correct, my guess for June U.S. deliveries is 6,119. (Guessing they will probably keep it closer to 5k for some safe buffer.)
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Assuming the 193,880 is correct, my guess for June U.S. deliveries is 6,119. (Guessing they will probably keep it closer to 5k for some safe buffer.)
I expect Model S and X deliveries to be close to nil this month as they send as many overseas as possible. I've heard many American Model 3 buyers who configured a month or so back suddenly had their delivery estimate slid to early July.
I was a little surprised sales were as big in May as they were. I thought they would be tapering a bit more than they did. The 6250 Model 3 boils down to about 2000 a week when considering the line was shut down for a week. That's a bit on the low side, but they are shipping to Canada too. I haven't seen any sales numbers for Canada for May. It will be interesting to see how many Model 3s were delivered.
I was a little surprised sales were as big in May as they were. I thought they would be tapering a bit more than they did. The 6250 Model 3 boils down to about 2000 a week when considering the line was shut down for a week. That's a bit on the low side, but they are shipping to Canada too. I haven't seen any sales numbers for Canada for May. It will be interesting to see how many Model 3s were delivered.
Zaphod
Galaxy President (former)
I don't believe there were many Canadian deliveries in May, but there will be hundreds if not thousands this month.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I wonder why you all posted in this Q1 or Q2 thread instead of the more relevant Poll: Tesla US 200,000th sale in Q2 or Q3 ???
Is it that you don't think Q3 is a possibility or is it that you don't know the other thread exists?
The number model 3 of June delivery will be around 8K I guess, Tesla has zero motivation to halt delivery, the staffs in the delivery center need to be paid, right? halting delivery means sending them home. It is against Elon's moral.
No kidding, halting deliveries for two weeks means sending staff home or have them sitting idle tapping their phone? Can Elon be tolerated that?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
He has tremendous motivation.
An entire additional quarter of full tax credit to buyers, at a time when his production rate is going to finally be quite high.
Which means likely a significantly higher % of buyers taking extra options since it's offset somewhat by the higher credit.
That's why you're seeing large #s of deliveries to Canada right now, and why you saw a slew of "your delivery will be later than planned" emails a little while back.
No one said completely stop, dial down the delivery pace to catch some breath before the gate is unleashed in July.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Here is the updated data for May for US deliveries ... All Tesla models S, X & 3 = 9,220 Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Based on the Total US deliveries reported through April 184,801 + May 9,220 = 194,021
The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
Therefore, Tesla must deliver less than 6,000 (5,979) vehicles in June to stay under the 200,000 federal limit
It's going to be very close ... Tesla delivered 6,200 Model S & X vehicles in the last month (March) of the previous quarter.
1.Tesla – 184,801 (estimated, including Tesla Roadster)
I've posted over there, but replying to a post in this thread over on another thread is just confusing.
Most people at Tesla wear multiple hats. The people who deliver cars don't just deliver cars. If they did, they would be doing nothing about half the time while Tesla is exporting most of their production (the first six weeks of every quarter have much fewer US deliveries than the last six weeks). There will no doubt be plenty of work to do this month even if they aren't doing many deliveries.
For one thing, with Model 3 ramp going on, the delivery centers are having to deal with larger volumes of cars arriving. All those cars need to be prepped for delivery. If they are just slow walking delivery, the staff can do all the prep work necessary for delivery which involves removing shipping materials (all Model S/X and at least some Model 3 are shipped with self adhesive plastic over portions of the car and there are usually things like seat protectors and such that need to be removed). Additionally there is a final inspection for things missed at the factory and/or shipping damage as well as any possible field changes that have to be made before delivery. Tesla makes production line changes so often there are times when cars get delivered to delivery centers that need some part changed out before delivery. Or the part gets changed on a service visit later. If the cars are sitting there for a couple of weeks, they can make any changes before delivery making the delivery experience that much smoother.
When I bought my Model S, Tesla was going through ramp hell on the Model X. They had moved the delivery center down the street because the service center needed more room. The delivery center was in a small business park with industrial shop storefronts. Tesla had taken over about 2/3 of the park and had Model Xs parked everywhere going through extra inspections and corrections.
Slow walking delivery might be a good thing for initial Model 3 quality. The people doing the final inspections will have more time and will likely find more problems before the customer does. They will also need to do all their homework up front because most delivery centers are going to be mob scenes the first weeks of July as Tesla delivers more cars in a few weeks than they did a quarter only a year or two back.
And even if there are some people who would otherwise be idle, Tesla could encourage them to take some vacation time in June.
Ultimately the pay off of this strategy comes in the second half of 2018 when lots of people who were on the fence come out of the woodwork to get the full tax incentive before it's gone. Having 6 months of full incentive will sell a lot more cars than 3 months.
My count from adding up all of the InsideEVs numbers going back to 2012 comes to 193,021.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Flatsix is likely including the Roadsters, so his total is high. We don't have a proper count of how many roadsters were US delivered after the tax credit count started on Jan 1 2010?. It is likely a 3 digit number but we don't know if it is low, middle, or high 3 digits.
Troy guesses 590, I say 200 but I don't think there is any accuracy in either guess.
oh and the ? after Jan 1 2010 is about the number of US roadsters after that date. There is no question that Jan 1 2010 is the start date of the counting.
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Correct ... according to Electrek for Tesla – 184,801 (estimated, including Tesla Roadster)
Based on the Total US deliveries reported through April 184,801 + May 9,220 = 194,021
The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
OK so update that to
- insideevs says 1000
- troy says 590
- I say 200 (playfully, to be devils advocate)
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
How many Roadsters were sold under the incentives is murky. They sold about 1800 in the US from 2008, but the incentive started in 2010. Due to a regulatory thing, no Roadsters could be sold in the US new after the end of 2011. The last Roadsters were all sold overseas in 2012. It may have been as many as 1000, but it could also have been a lot fewer. About the worst case scenario for Tesla is they are sitting at around 6000 cars left. Because some of the Roadsters were sold before the incentive program began, it's probably more than that, but we can't be sure how much. It probably is somewhere between 6000 and 7000.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I think that is a fair summary. I'll be glad when this is in the rear view mirror so there won't be any more hand wringing and guessing left.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
I think Tesla is going to have to get the information out pretty quickly once they know for sure which quarter it will land in... if they are manipulating deliveries in order to extend the credit then this is already something they know and I'm not sure why they would keep the information internal.
A lot of people at this point are basing their decision to configure/order based on what portion of the tax credit will still remain in Q3/Q4.
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