POLL: What happens to Model S resale prices with Model 3 release?

[Troy]

Elon wouldn't talk about a 75 kWh if they were not going to have a 75 kWh Model 3 otherwise people would just wait until it's released. Elon has been very clever about these details. For example, he tweeted 3 times that they don't have any plans for a Model S battery larger than 100 kWh. Therefore 75 kWh should be considered confirmed.

 

[Reciprocity]

A couple of big factors not considered:

1) If you dont have a reservation from a year ago, you wont get the Model 3 for a very long time still. This will actually drive demand and prices up over the next 12 months or so.
2) Coinciding with 1 above, Tax incentives phase out on Tesla cars which should help the relative value used S/X as you wont be able to buy a discounted S/X nor a Discounted Model 3. A model 3 with all of the features most would want, would more expensive then a used Model S with more features.

There will certainly be a hit to used values with more availability of the model 3 in 2019, but I dont expect much of a negative over the next 12-18 months. It will really depend on how quickly Tesla can ramp the TM3 production and how much the options cost. Remember that a used S/X can be stripped of options by Tesla and sold as base units that can then be upgraded by the new owner. I also think that with an FSD feature active, any AP2 cars will hold their value and actually improve their value as fleet owners buy us as many as they can find. Without a real FSD feature though, that wont happen. If there is significant progress over the next 18 months, you could see fleet owners acquiring cars in anticipation, but the progress must be significant, say Level 3 with a target date for Level 4. I think regulatory hurdles will be cleared quickly once someone can show that the system is 10x safer then a human over billions of miles of ghost mode driving. Examples would be showing how FSD would have stopped a car blowing through a stop light and causing a major accident.

 

[croman]

Some say like BMW 7 vs. 3 or MB S vs. C, that Model S and 3 are not in the same market. I don't think these are valid comparisons and that Model S and 3 are much more in the same market compared to the large vs. small German cars.

I totally agree that BMW 7 and MB S are not in the same market as the BMW 3 or MB C. The smaller German cars are meant to be sports sedans, particularly the 3 series which historically has been the measuring stick of the sports sedan. The large German cars are luxury barges, with the MB S as the measuring stick of any luxury vehicle. The buyers of these vehicles are in different markets, with different priorities and looking for completely different qualities in their cars.

The Model S is not a luxury vehicle. It is a technology vehicle. Instead of oozing luxury (it does not), it oozes technology. And amazingly, it drives like a BMW! The Model 3 essentially has the same technology and is significantly lighter. So it will be equal tech wise but better in terms of driving dynamics! Even if it accelerates slower at each level, it will still drive better just because of the of lighter weight.

Basically unless you must have that space or if the Model 3 turns out to ride like a Toyota Camry (highly unlikely), Model S doesn't really do anything better than a Model 3. Moreover, range is king! And with the same battery, the Model 3 has more range. So you get more range for less money...

In no way is any of this accurate. Elon has spent months dispelling the myth that the 3 is merely a smaller S. The 3 does not and will never have the tech, apart from AP2, that an S has. The comparisons between other auto manufacturers are valid.

Your only point that seems somewhat accurate is that the S isn't in the same "luxury" class as an S-class or 7 series but the 3 won't have the same finish or luxury features as a BMW 3 or MB C-class either. The 3 won't even have the luxury appointments of the S. Though it does have door pockets and maybe a lit vanity?

The 3 is not going to be what people think. It will be better in a lot ways but its not going to eat the S's lunch in any way. Tesla won't let that happen.

 

[jelloslug]

Exactly. At least 18 months, because while they burn through the current reservation list, new reservations will be accumulating. Plenty of time for Tesla to enhance the S product line, both in terms of capabilities and manufacturing cost / consumer pricing. As is standard in the automotive industry, new features will appear first at the top end (S/X), and only eventually (if at all) migrate down to the midrange (3/Y).

It's a bit more challenging for Tesla than for gasoline automakers, of course, because 3 is more efficient due to its smaller size and lower drag coefficient. So the batteries that they put in the S won't go as far per unit mass, and don't get as much range per hour on a given charger. They're in a bind because to make the S more valuable, they need it to be roomier, can't afford to sacrifice any style for aero, and yet want more range on it. But they seem to be working to counteract this problem very large pack sizes and rolling out the V3 superchargers, which could even charge a Semi quickly

Still, it'll be hard for them to maintain a range distinction without deliberately hindering the Model 3's range. I think they're eventually going to have to give up on the concept of maintaining a range distinction (after all, gasoline cars don't do that) and simply focus on space and luxury features.

My opinion is that as the Model 3 becomes more available, the Model S will move up in the market not only feature wise but minimum range also. There is already speculation that 75 battery is going to be replaced with a 14 module version of the 100 that could be a new 85. That would put the base range of the Model S at over 290 miles. I also think that the Model S is going to get an interior overhaul in the very near future, possibly with new features that are not available on any current model (Model 3 included).

 

[KarenRei]

My opinion is that as the Model 3 becomes more available, the Model S will move up in the market not only feature wise but minimum range also. There is already speculation that 75 battery is going to be replaced with a 14 module version of the 100 that could be a new 85. That would put the base range of the Model S at over 290 miles. I also think that the Model S is going to get an interior overhaul in the very near future, possibly with new features that are not available on any current model (Model 3 included).

Neither of those changes would surprise me in the least.

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon wouldn't talk about a 75 kWh if they were not going to have a 75 kWh Model 3 otherwise people would just wait until it's released. Elon has been very clever about these details. For example, he tweeted 3 times that they don't have any plans for a Model S battery larger than a 100 kWh. Therefore 75 kWh should be considered confirmed.

There arnt any plans until their are. Either way, Elon isn't going to tell us about a 120KWh battery until its already out because he doesn't want people putting off purchases for 100Ds. To be fair, Elon never confirmed that it would be 75KWh, just that there was room:

"The shorter wheelbase only allows for a 75 kWh pack in Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities"

I think there is still an outside chance that we get 55 and 70. I know there was some confirmation of a 70KWh pack in one of the alphas, which by no means is proof that they intend that size for the Beta/RCs and could have even been 18650 cells back then. What I think they will do is purposely keep range above Bolt at the base and under 300 miles with the 3-70. They might even try to keep 3-70D under 300, but I think we could see 280ish and 295ish range for 70/70D configurations. Maybe they dont care about the psychological numbers of over 238 and under 300, and if that is the case then it probably will be 60/75 and around 316 miles of range for the bigger battery. But one thing that would make me second guess that is wouldnt that put the 3-75D over 330 miles of range? Do we really think they want to attack the S100D like that and if they did, could that then mean a S120D is coming soon? Which goes back to my original point. There is no plan until their is a plan and we wont know until it has already happened.. as in Elon will tweet that S120D is now available for ordering and SP120DL is coming soon.

 

[zer0cool]

In no way is any of this accurate. Elon has spent months dispelling the myth that the 3 is merely a smaller S. The 3 does not and will never have the tech, apart from AP2, that an S has. The comparisons between other auto manufacturers are valid.

Your only point that seems somewhat accurate is that the S isn't in the same "luxury" class as an S-class or 7 series but the 3 won't have the same finish or luxury features as a BMW 3 or MB C-class either. The 3 won't even have the luxury appointments of the S. Though it does have door pockets and maybe a lit vanity?

The 3 is not going to be what people think. It will be better in a lot ways but its not going to eat the S's lunch in any way. Tesla won't let that happen.

Yes Elon has talked multiple times about how the 3 is not just a smaller S. However those are just Elon marketing. The questions is, what tech, specifically, will the S have while the 3 won't? AP is THE tech that distinguishes Tesla from all other cars and the 3 will have that. Will Tesla intentionally design 2nd version of the UI/OS that is intentionally shittier so that nav is harder to use, or radio is harder to tune? That would be utterly stupid. Tesla's tech advantage over all car brands are primarily in its AP and its large screen and associated UI. The Model 3 has all of those. What other important tech is there? I don't see any.

In terms of interior quality, from what we have seen so far, the Model 3 interior looks pretty much the same quality as Model S interior, just smaller. Of course will have to sit in it to really know. I mean unless Model 3 drives like a Toyota, I just don't see much at all separating the two cars.

 

[KarenRei]

Yes Elon has talked multiple times about how the 3 is not just a smaller S. However those are just Elon marketing. The questions is, what tech, specifically, will the S have while the 3 won't?

Um, how about an all-aluminum body, smart air suspension, 21" wheels, HEPA filtration system, auto-presenting handles, 0-60mph/100kph in 2,3 seconds, longer range, 2 displays, and 1500+ configurations? Not to mention more passenger space and double the cargo space...

All listed in the above. And that's just the current status. I fully expect an S and X refresh coming up in the pipeline.[/quote]

AP is THE tech that distinguishes Tesla from all other cars

Says you. I don't plan to buy it, at least not until it's far better. I've seen the sort of situations that fool it and I think it's rather embarrassing that it's not more mature than it is. Wintery weather can obscure our lane lines for a third of a year, and it certainly doesn't know how to follow road side markers. Doesn't work on gravel. Doesn't like ridges and sharp curves. Not particularly useful for me.

Will Tesla intentionally design 2nd version of the UI/OS that is intentionally shittier so that nav is harder to use, or radio is harder to tune?

Of course not. But it is having to be condensed onto one, cheaper screen, which will turn off some customers.

 

[croman]

Actually AP2 works great in winter with snow on the ground. It sees the tire tread tracks created by other cars and somehow is able to accurately follow it. I've tested it throughout a winter and I assume, though that is fraught as AP2 is two steps forward, one step backward, that it will continue to improve but I otherwise agree whole heartedly.

S is different in a lot of ways and I think interior finishes will be another realm where the S is better than the 3. Though I could careless about that.

The tech features will be coming to the S and X first and then the 3. We know that. So if a HUD actually comes to Teslaland, it won't be in the 3 at first. Whatever tech is available in Teslaland right now, the 3 won't have it all. We know that. The above-stated list is pretty comprehensive. BWD mode is awesome. I've gotten no tailpipe fumes or bad smells or anything in my S. Its remarkable actually. You can't force another car on me because I'm spoiled.

Bottom line: I expect the 3 to be a great value but don't think it somehow is a smaller S. It will still be a great car though.

 

[NYEVDriver]

I've mostly driven German cars (BMW and Audi) prior to purchasing our current vehicles. IMHO the Model S will definitely see a change (battery & interior wise) within the next year to help differentiate it from the Model 3. I equate the Model 3 and Model S to the BMW 3 Series & 5 Series. I agree that you can get various versions of each car (from 328/528 RWD/AWD all the way to BMW M3/M5 for performance) but they are still considered different markets. Overall individuals will purchase what they feel is best for them. You may notice that the introduction of a new 3 Series does not affect the value of a used 5 Series. As for the current environment the Model 3 will more than likely affect the value of older Model S's (especially those that do not have (AP1 or AP2) or that may be RWD only) but I also feel that individuals that are interested in the Model 3 either like the Model 3 more than the Model S, feel that the Model 3 is just a smaller Model S (which may cause many reservation holders to be disappointed) or purely chose the Model 3 for financial reasons. Either way any affect that the Model 3 has on the Model S will be short lived as Tesla improves the technology that they offer with their vehicles over time. It's great over all for the EV market but take it from me when I say I see many more Audi A4's on the road than I see Audi A7's. And If I had to chose between the two (even if were an fully loaded S4 vs a premium plus (Middle Package) A7) I would chose the A7 all day every day.

 

[KarenRei]

Actually AP2 works great in winter with snow on the ground. It sees the tire tread tracks created by other cars and somehow is able to accurately follow it.

Haha, if only our winter roads had nice tire tracks to follow They have streaky lines resembling road lines.

iceland road winter - Google leit

I've seen lots of videos of AP2 falling for things a lot more subtle than that. There's actually a lot of skill to driving in these conditions - for example, it's very common to drive down the middle, not in your lane. The road conditions in the middle tend to be better, and if (or should I say, when) you slide, you have more room to recover.

As I drive along sometimes I stop and think, "how is my brain knowing how to position my car"? And I realize that it's far, far more complicated than just following lines. Following line being something that AP2 even doesn't seem to fully understand the concept of - for example, its tendency to cross lanes when cresting ridges on curving roads rather than assuming that the curve continues, and so forth. AP2 should have an advantage over a human, being able to incorporate map knowledge, GPS and radar into its decisionmaking process - yet it makes such rudimentary mistakes. Meanwhile in the real world, our brain looks at colour changes in the road to see if there's going to be a surface change, or if the line markers aren't corresponding to where we perceive the edge of the road to be. We look at poles/markers/signs on the side to give us a sense of positioning. We detect upcoming curves by "scenery changes" in the background in front of us that suggest that the road won't be able to continue in that direction. There's so many things that we do, and I don't get the sense that AP2 does hardly any of them. And around here, if you drive off the road, you're liable to end up in the bottom of a ravine, in the ocean, or plowing into lava.

I'd like to like AP. But as it stands, it's not worth $3k to me. If it ever gets to a state where I feel it can actually handle roads in my area, then I might pay $4k for an over-the-air update. But it's certainly not "THE tech", and I know I'm not alone in this. I want an efficient, fun, fast-charging electric car from a company that's working to revolutionize the industry, and that's why I'm on the list for a Model 3 And these power consumption figures, if accurate, only confirm my conviction that this is the right car for me.

 

[Troy]

Um, how about ...

1. an all-aluminum body,
Model 3 body panels are expected to be aluminum as well. The frame is expected to be steel.

2. smart air suspension,
This will be available before the Model 3 P75D starts production.

3. 21" wheels,
This is a misleading statement. If we believe that then the Model S is less premium than the Model X because the Model X has 22" wheels but the Model S doesn't. The correct way to phrase it would be "larger wheel upgrade". This will be available in the Model 3 as well.

4. HEPA filtration system,
Eventually, this will be available in the Model 3 as well. This is needed in China.

5. auto-presenting handles,
Not worth ~$29,000 difference

6. 0-60mph/100kph in 2,3 seconds,
This is a misleading statement.
The Model 3 75 is expected to have better performance than Model S or X 75.
The Model 3 75D is expected to have better performance than Model S or X 75D.

7. longer range,
Totally the opposite.
The Model 3 75 will have more range than Model S or X 75.
The Model 3 75D will have more range than Model S or X 75D.

8. 2 displays,
Not worth ~$29,000 difference

9. 1500+ configurations?
Marketing mambo jumbo

10. Not to mention more passenger space
Most people don't need this.

11. double the cargo space...
This is the only advantage worth mentioning but fades out when you think about all the advantages Model 3 has.

Here is my take on Model 3 vs Model S:
1. Model 3 75D is expected to have 300 miles EPA rated range versus 259 in the Model S 75D.
2. Model 3 will cost ~16% less to charge because it will be ~16% more efficient than the Model S.
3. Model 3 75/75D supercharge sessions will take 16% less time than Model S 75/75D because the Model 3 is ~16% more efficient and needs less charge to drive the same distance.
4. Model 3 75/75D will have 16% slower battery degradation than Model S 75/75D because the same mileage equals to fewer charge cycles. For example, 10,000 miles in a car with 300 miles range equals to 10,000/300= 33.3 charge cycles. However, 10,000 miles in a car with 259 miles range equals to 10,000/259= 38.6 charge cycles.
5. Model 3 75/75D is expected to have better performance than the Model S 75/75D.
6. Model 3 has the newer 2170 cells with improved chemistry while the Model S/X will continue with the old 18650 cells for the foreseeable future. Therefore buying a Model S/X is less attractive because when S/X switch to 2170 cells as well, the current S/X cars will become the old version. It's likely that people who have Model S/X cars with 18650 cells won't be able to upgrade to 2170 packs.
7. The Model 3 has a lower drag coefficient than the Model S. Therefore at highway speeds, the Model 3 loses less range.
8. The Model 3 75D is expected to start at $49,000 vs Model S 75D that starts at $77,800. The Model 3 is $28,800 cheaper.
9. Elon confirmed here that the Model 3 production line is more automated. This means it's easier for Tesla to hit better profit margins on the Model 3 than the Model S. Therefore, Tesla's focus will shift from Model S/X to Model 3. They won't care if the 75 kWh Model S sales decline. They will just discontinue it. They have already confirmed discontinuing the Model S 75. I predicted this would happen. See my messages here and here.

 

[croman]

@Troy

Wow, such rose colored glasses. I don't disagree with it all though.

1. Sure, probably 316 vs. 259 (right now). But now the min S battery is 85kwh (290 miles). By the time the S75D (or whatever it is) comes out, Tesla would've moved the S base up further (and likely upped the top end to 125kwh 2170 packs).

2. S is free SC and obviously bigger cars cost marginally more to operate (that is mostly the difference in the purported 237wh/mi vs. 289). Most large car buyers implicitly understand that fact. So most buyers won't care -- they will only care about range vs. efficiency.

3. No, while the voltage of the M3 pack is unknown, I suspect it will be 350v making it slower than any future S (400V battery seems to be standard now). Plus the 3 will have taper issues being a smaller pack. HVAC will also steal a much higher part of that efficiency. This will affect the real range greatly.

4. See 1&3. We know nothing of the 2170 longevity since it is new.

5. ? I can't even respond to that. I'd say it was Insane but I'm sure its Ludicrous.

6. There is nothing that shows the 2170 is more desirable than the tried and true (and proven and iteratively improved 18650). It might well be though. We don't know. Tesla's 18650 packs themselves have been vastly improved through iterative improvements. It is likely the alpha 3s being released will need to be significantly improved.

7. That is factored into the range already. You're also forgetting the 3 is smaller and lighter (there is a discussion about the precise aero benefit in another thread).

I like the enthusiasm. I had before I actually bought my Tesla. Then you get the Tesla Tarnish. Then after you drive your car you forget all about that. They are beautiful machines.

 

[Troy]

6. There is nothing that shows the 2170 is more desirable

Except this: When Model S/X switch to 2170 cells, Tesla will most likely redesign the battery pack. Therefore in the future, people who have 18650 packs won't be able to upgrade to 2170 packs. They will be stuck with the current and more expensive ($22,000) packs. On the other hand, the Model 3 doesn't have this problem. It is more future proof.

7. That is factored into the range already.

No. EPA tests are performed at 32.1 mph average speed which is pretty low. Therefore EPA rated range doesn't show the advantages of the Model 3 well enough. For example, the Model 3 55 with 218 mi EPA has more range than the Bolt with 238 mi EPA at any speed over 54 mph.

Air drag increases with the square of speed. Therefore at higher speeds, the 0.21 drag coefficient of the Model 3 becomes a bigger advantage and Bolt's 0.32 drag coefficient becomes a bigger problem. Similarly, the Model 3 75D's range is closing in on the Model S 100D at highway speeds and its advantage over Model S 75D increases.

 

[jelloslug]

Except this: When Model S/X switch to 2170 cells, Tesla will most likely redesign the battery pack. Therefore in the future, people who have 18650 packs won't be able to upgrade to 2170 packs. They will be stuck with the current and more expensive ($22,000) packs. On the other hand, the Model 3 doesn't have this problem. It is more future proof.



No, you don't understand. At highway speeds, the Model 3 75D's range is closing in on the Model S 100D. EPA tests are performed at 32.1 mph average speed. Therefore EPA rated range doesn't show the advantages of the Model 3 well enough.

For example, the Model 3 55 with 218 mi EPA has more range than the Bolt with 238 mi EPA at any speed over 54 mph.

It's highly unlikely that there will ever be an "upgrade pack" for any Model S, X or 3.

 

[Troy]

It's highly unlikely that there will ever be an "upgrade pack" for any Model S, X or 3.

Elon talked about this last month during the shareholder meeting. He said they will offer battery upgrades. You can watch it here after 13:30.

 

[jelloslug]

Elon talked about this last month during the shareholder meeting. He said they will offer battery upgrades. You can watch it here after 13:30.

Until it happens, it's just talk.

 

[croman]

Until it happens, it's just talk.

This is the cold reality of Tesla.