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POLL: What will be the average sales price of the Model 3?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by aronth5, Jan 31, 2015.

?

What will the Average Sale Price be?

  1. $35,000 to $39,999

    5.9%
  2. $40,000 to $44,999

    18.5%
  3. $45,000 to $49,999

    31.9%
  4. $50,000 to $54,999

    28.1%
  5. $55,000 to $59,999

    12.6%
  6. $60,000 to $64,999

    0.7%
  7. Over $65,000

    2.2%
  1. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    There has been much discussion about the cost of the Model 3. I suspect the average price will be much higher than the general public expects with the media focus on the $35k price "target".
    Personally, I believe Elon would have been much better off just saying the Model 3 will cost approximately half the cost of the Model S.
    When pricing for the Model S came out, the base model was $57,499 which created a lot of interest especially when the tax credit was factored in. A Model S for $49,999! Well we all know all that played out.
    So with the ASP of the Model S well over $90k now what will the ASP of the Model 3 be?
     
  2. Mr X

    Mr X Future Owner

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    I'm sure it's going to be around that price completely bare.


    Like the CLA's advertised starting price, $29,900, sounds appealing but thats stock, very few people get a car with no options. Model 3 will definitely be over 40k with the right options. And that's still a great price for what the car will be.
     
  3. TomServo

    TomServo Member

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    They may get away with listing it for $34,999 but that will be after the $7500 federal rebate, of course that assume Tesla still be able to get the federal tax credits? When do folks think they will sell their 200K car?

    So like the MS I highly doubt they can bring it in at $35K
     
  4. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Actually Elon has stated specifically that the $35K Model 3 price target is without any government credits or rebates.
     
  5. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Instead of thinking of Model 3 as "$35k", I prefer to think it's going to be "about 1/2 the price of Model S". That provides us with a range of $35k - $65k.

    In the context of this poll, I expect ASP on Model 3 to be in the $50k range (I'm taking the over rather than the under on that # too). Model S has been up in the low $100k range, and cutting that in half gets me to the $52-55k ish range.

    I further expect that to be a longer run average, with the early Model 3 shipments (Signature series - that sort of thing), to be more like $60-70k, as the early cars will be a richer mix of options, bigger battery options, more performance models - the same sorts of choices and optimizations that we've seen happening regularly with Model S.
     
  6. davewill

    davewill Member

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    I would really like the price to me after incenctives to end up in the low $30k range, but I'm not expecting it. I voted $50-55K.
     
  7. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    I'm hoping I can get a decently-equipped model for around $45k.
     
  8. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    The belief that after 200k cars are sold ends the federal tax credit. Not completely there is a phase out period.

    http://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB/ar09.html


    Section 2. BACKGROUND


    Section 30D provides for a credit for certain new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles. The credit is equal to the sum of: (1) $2,500, plus (2) for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. Under § 30D(b)(3), that portion of the credit determined by battery capacity cannot exceed $5,000. Therefore, the total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500. The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period. After December 31, 2009, a vehicle that qualifies for a credit under § 30 does not qualify for the credit under § 30D
     
  9. wallet.dat

    wallet.dat Member

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    But that's in 2013-2014 dollars, not factoring inflation into it, so it may be a wash.
     
  10. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    The first year every car will be a maxed out Signature version and maxed out versions. It will be the tail end of the second year before they even start on the lower priced versions. I can't imagine that there won't be a larger pack (250+ mile range) and a smaller pack version (200 mile range). I expect a years worth of larger pack versions rolling off the line before the smaller pack version shows up. Anyone think they won't have over 100K maxed Model 3's reserved? I do.
     
  11. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    No, it was $30k in (2012?-)2013 dollars. No such disclaimer on the $35k price.
     
  12. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    43% so far believe the ASP will be over $50k. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the future.
     
  13. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Of course the Model 3 ASP will be well over the base price, just as few BMWs are sold as "base" cars, and most cars on dealers lots are loaded with options.

    The important thing is that the base Model 3 be a usable vehicle as a primary car: that it have at least 200 EPA range miles, a high safety rating, seats 5, and a solid set of basic features including advanced safety features like collision avoidance, TACC, and rear view camera. Things like Auto Pilot, pano roof, fancy retracting door handles, dual motors, a higher powered rear motor, leather seats, are options that many will order but many won't.
     
  14. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    If you have collision avoidance, I find it hard to argue that TACC is a safety feature. It's an add on convenience feature if I ever saw one. It's not even standard in the Model S right now (requires the tech package), so I really doubt it would be standard on the base Model 3.
     
  15. MarkR

    MarkR Member

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    My guess is that a huge percentage of early adopter MS85 owners will opt for all of the technology that will be then available, but wasn't when ours arrived in 2012 & 2013. I'm guessing and hoping that current owners will be first in line for the new cars. The new safety features and auto-drive ought to bring down the cost of insurance since most accidents are from driver error, but we are apt to pay dearly for the advanced technology.
     
  16. physicsfita

    physicsfita Member

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    ...and really I hope that isn't the case -- my Prius will have around 500,000 miles by the time the Model 3 comes out. I don't know if it could survive waiting another year or two (and another 40,000-80,000 miles) for current owners standing in line in front of me -- that would just about guarantee that I would end up getting a Volt instead!
     
  17. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    While I would expect Tesla to offer a small group of existing owners to be first in line for the Model 3 I would be very disappointed if it included the number of owners who would fit your criteria. At least you've had the good fortune to own a Tesla and to have been able to enjoy a great car. For many the wait will be in excess of 5 years for a car they can finally afford.
     
  18. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Member

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    Agreed. I don't mind if a small handful of existing Model S or Roadster owners are given a chance to get the first say, 500 Model 3s, but being as this is supposed to be Tesla's "mass-market" car, I'm hoping production and availability will be accessible to a wider audience. If you can afford a Model S, you don't "need" a Model 3. Frankly, neither does anyone. But, I feel it should be more accessible to the average workin' Joe.
     
  19. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure there will be a Model 3 reservation system open to everyone equally, like the X. Which is as it should be.
     
  20. Trev Page

    Trev Page Member

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    I've always run my numbers on Model 3 with the expectation of a $50k price tag for a well appointed car. Tesla is aiming for the BMW 3 series so it's a pretty safe bet to expect prices very close to what those sell for.
    In any case, I fear that Tesla will do the limited sig series and offer them to existing owners first and Model 3 won't be in any kind of volume production runs for at least a year for those wanting to buy a "normal" version. For me it might mean buying a used S85 as used cars should end up being in that price range in a couple of years.
     

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