Poll: When is the next Tesla price drop?

[DanCar]

Tesla has made it their mission to expand EV sales and thus take market share from other car companies. They are expanding production enormously.
About U.S. backlog being near zero around end of year:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614991977367625729

 

[StealthP3D]

I found the multiple choices lacking. I think the prices are on a long-term downtrend but will go up from here in the short-term. So I selected they will go up from here.

 

[dhanson865]

I still believe that a SRish Model Y will come back to the configurator as Austin, TX Gigafactory ramps up and think that just plopping a Model Y on the site with a noticeably lower base price counts as a price drop and I expect that soon so I said 3 months on the poll.

I don't care if they call it "Model Y", "Model Y AWD", "Model Y SR+ AWD" or any variation on that. I don't care if it's 200 mile range or 225 or 250 or 275 or anywhere in between. I'm just looking for it to be on the menu and noticeably cheaper than the LR Model Y.

 

[AndrewZ]

Is it reasonable to think that inventory alone could also be used as an indicator of backlog? Because production > orders is vehicles going into inventory, let me know if I’m wrong here.

Portfolio - Matt Jung Photography

Let’s break it down by model, with consideration that it’s still early after the price cuts

• S - Inventory declined, now looks to be stabilizing
• X - Inventory declined hard, now heading up
• 3 - Inventory declined hard and continues declining although at a slower rate
• Y - Inventory declined hard, now looks to be stabilizing

There are two main forecasting factors here that I can think of at the moment:

1. If you listen to the Fed, interest rates are still heading up likely at 0.25% increments and then will be held for some period of time after they peak.
   • Maybe this is too hawkish? Maybe the market is right and rate cuts happen sooner than the Fed claims.
2. The IRA credit, applicable only to the 3 and Y right now, will likely be reduced from $7500 in many cases after March.
   • Maybe the guidance is more beneficial and the $7500 credit continues to be garnered across a high number of 3s and Ys.

If rates stay high and the Treasury guidance does reduce the credit, I can see more price cuts coming in the near future. It might end up being a hodgepodge between the models. S and X are still not moving enough, and the Y LR might get a $3750-7500 discount (rather than MSRP reduction) if the IRA credit is cut in half or reduced to zero.

Right now I think the 3 probably doesn’t need anything further, based on what we’re seeing so far.

This all needs to be combined with the knowledge that production continues increasing and those vehicles need to move.

 

[DanCar]

Electrek says there is a lot of demand.

Tesla (TSLA) is seeing 'unprecedented demand,' stores hitting new records

Tesla (TSLA) is currently experiencing 'unprecedented demand' in the US following the significant price cuts that happened last week.

electrek.co

 

[DanCar]

Inventory slowly rising.

Total New Inventory - Tesla Inventory Charts

This page shows historical data of the total number of new (in existing inventory) Tesla vehicle listings (Model S, 3, X, Y) available (in the United States) on their website. Browse other new inventory charts: Model S – Model 3 – Model X – Model Y – Model 3/Y – Model S/X – All New […]

tesladata.mattjung.net

 

[DanCar]

Mostly tells us what we know, that price cuts are affecting entire car industry.

Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market

The electric-vehicle maker’s decision to reduce prices has reverberated through the industry.

www.wsj.com

Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market - WSJ

archived 22 Jan 2023 13:16:01 UTC

archive.md

Excerpts:
Stanly Tran, a 32-year-old California psychotherapist had been on the waiting list for a Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV, but quickly ditched his reservation and purchased a Model Y after a friend alerted him to the price drop. “‘There’s no way,’” Mr. Tran recalls thinking when he saw Tesla’s new prices. The Model Y offered more battery range at a competitive price to the Mach-E, he said.

Traditional auto makers, which don’t have the EV scale of Tesla, have thin profit margins or lose money on their plug-in models, Bank of America analyst John Murphy said.

The Model Y was the second-most-researched vehicle on Edmunds’ website for the week ended Jan. 15, up from 70th the week prior. The Model 3 moved up 36 spots. Soon after the price cut, applications for financing of Tesla vehicles tripled at Tenet, a New York startup firm that provides financing to EV buyers. The influx of customers has remained elevated, Tenet Chief Executive Alex Liegl said.

 

[DanCar]

Model Y price increased by $500.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617747431751585792

 

[DanCar]

Rumor: Customer order backlog increased from two weeks to two months:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618413888537792512

 

[DanCar]

U.S. treasury revises rules and now Model Y 5 seater is eligible for $7,500. One could theorize that this might make Tesla more interested in a price hike.

U.S. says more Tesla, Ford, GM EVs eligible for tax credits

The U.S. Treasury Department said Friday it will make more Tesla , Ford Motor , General Motors and Volkswagen electric vehicles eligible for up to $7,500 tax credits after it revised its vehicle classification definitions.

www.reuters.com

The Treasury said the revised definition will apply to EV purchases since Jan. 1.

 

[DanCar]

• Model 3 RWD: $43,490 (from $43,990, a 1.1% drop)
• Model 3 P: $53,990 (same)
• Model Y LR: $54,990 (from $53,490, a 2.8% increase)
• Model Y P: $57,990 (from $56,990, a 1.75%increase)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621715943402487808

 

[DanCar]

Tesla opens orders on cheaper $50,000 Model Y with 4680 cells

After a year of selling the vehicle as an “off-the-menu” product, Tesla has finally opened orders on the cheaper Model...

electrek.co

Tesla (TSLA) slashes prices across all its electric vehicles again

Tesla (TSLA) has implemented a new wave of price reductions across its entire lineup of electric vehicles. Prices on some...

electrek.co

 

[DanCar]

No advertising to keep prices affordable.
Tesla does not consider advertising to help keep prices high.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644390825697353728

 

[dhanson865]

I still believe that a SRish Model Y will come back to the configurator as Austin, TX Gigafactory ramps up and think that just plopping a Model Y on the site with a noticeably lower base price counts as a price drop and I expect that soon so I said 3 months on the poll.

I don't care if they call it "Model Y", "Model Y AWD", "Model Y SR+ AWD" or any variation on that. I don't care if it's 200 mile range or 225 or 250 or 275 or anywhere in between. I'm just looking for it to be on the menu and noticeably cheaper than the LR Model Y.

It happened and it happened before 3 months was up.

 

[DanCar]

Model Y now $47K. Long range: $50K. Perf: $54K

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648530671227523074

 

[kopo]

Model Y now $47K. Long range: $50K. Perf: $54K

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648530671227523074

That's insane. Other manufacturers can't compete especially with them losing the $7500 credit.

 

[afadeev]

No advertising to keep prices affordable.
Tesla does not consider advertising to help keep prices high.

That's not accurate.
Tesla has been advertising in China and Europe, regularly.

Until recently, it didn't have to do so in North America.
Now that Supply >> Demand in the US, price cuts and traditional marketing campaigns are all but inevitable.

a

 

[DanCar]

Inventory Levels - Used Model Y - Tesla Inventory Charts

This page shows historical data of the total number of used Tesla Model Y vehicles available in stock (In the U.S.) on their website.Chart via tesladata.mattjung.net by @Mattjungphoto Browse other used inventory charts: Model S – Model 3 – Model X – Model Y – All Used Tesla Models

tesladata.mattjung.net

If we overly price cuts on above chart we see what is obvious. Everytime inventory goes high, price cuts follow. And the converse is likely true, everytime there is no inventory price increases occur.

 

[Hiline]

That's not accurate.
Tesla has been advertising in China and Europe, regularly.

This is interesting. Can you point me to a Europe or China ad by Tesla?

 

[afadeev]

This is interesting. Can you point me to a Europe or China ad by Tesla?

Tesla Commercials

YEah, I know No Advertising but when..... I have a timetable/strategy Tesla should consider. Let the other car makers continue to soften up the ICE demographic into starting to see EV's as the option. And then when it seems right come in with Ads that are 30 seconds long but contain six 5...

teslamotorsclub.com