So we took this poll back in October right after HW2 was announced. Back then, we collectively guessed that HW2 will reach AP1 parity on March 10th, 2017.
Tesla announced AP2 and said that within 55 days EAP would be active. It took 75 days for them to deliver TACC below 75 MPH, Autosteer on very limited roads below 45 MPH, and forward collision warning. So they missed their deadline by 36% and didn't deliver quite what many people expected.
Right now, HW2 cars are missing:
- Autosteer on non limited access highways
- Autosteer between 45 MPH and 90 MPH
- TACC between 75 MPH and 90 MPH
- Side collision warning
- Automatic emergency braking
- Summon
- Auto high beams
- Auto wipers
Tesla has 38 days to add all of those to meet our guess. Seems really unlikely. However, Elon is saying that we'll have some Full Self Driving features within 90-180 days...Elon Time!