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POLL: When will AP2 reach AP1 feature parity?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by gearchruncher, Oct 20, 2016.

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POLL: When will AP2 reach AP1 feature parity?

  1. December 2016

    16 vote(s)
    12.8%
  2. January 2017

    9 vote(s)
    7.2%
  3. February 2017

    12 vote(s)
    9.6%
  4. March 2017

    16 vote(s)
    12.8%
  5. Q2 2017

    32 vote(s)
    25.6%
  6. Q3 2017

    17 vote(s)
    13.6%
  7. Q4 2017

    13 vote(s)
    10.4%
  8. 2018+

    10 vote(s)
    8.0%
  1. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    AP2 hardware is being shipped, but with no functions yet. Tesla says it will be "December" before AP1 is turned on with the new hardware. We all know about Tesla time... So what's your guess when AP2 cars will first be able to do what an AP1 car can do today?
     
  2. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    So the wisdom of the crowds says...

    March 10th, 2017.
    70 days after the last day of December 2016
    End of December is 71 days away.

    So the wisdom says it will take exactly twice as long as they say....
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    Uh, oh, been just two more days and we've slipped the schedule to March 21st.

    Like all good engineering projects, we're slipping more than a day per day!
     
    • Disagree x 1
  4. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    I'll quit it now, but we're back to March 10th, 2017. Tesla has 51 days to meet their estimate and 136 days to meet ours. It will be fun to see how close we are once they do release.
     
  5. Vad42

    Vad42 Member

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    The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catchup.
     
  6. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    So we took this poll back in October right after HW2 was announced. Back then, we collectively guessed that HW2 will reach AP1 parity on March 10th, 2017.

    Tesla announced AP2 and said that within 55 days EAP would be active. It took 75 days for them to deliver TACC below 75 MPH, Autosteer on very limited roads below 45 MPH, and forward collision warning. So they missed their deadline by 36% and didn't deliver quite what many people expected.

    Right now, HW2 cars are missing:
    • Autosteer on non limited access highways
    • Autosteer between 45 MPH and 90 MPH
    • TACC between 75 MPH and 90 MPH
    • Side collision warning
    • Automatic emergency braking
    • Summon
    • Auto high beams
    • Auto wipers
    Tesla has 38 days to add all of those to meet our guess. Seems really unlikely. However, Elon is saying that we'll have some Full Self Driving features within 90-180 days...Elon Time!
     
  7. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT Quickish

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    If I had an AP2 car I would be wanting them to take all the time they needed. This is one application you don't want bugs in.
    The good thing for AP2 owners is you have years of genuine improvement ahead of you. Enjoy the ride!
     
    • Like x 2
  8. sorka

    sorka Active Member

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    So basically AP2 cars are still missing everything that actually matters???? :mad:
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. sorka

    sorka Active Member

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    Perhaps they could have not charged for these features until the features were actually downloaded to the cars????? :oops:
     
    • Like x 4
  10. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT Quickish

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    Yeah, funny thing is that Tesla does allow delayed purchase of AP.
    If I were getting a car now I would not include AP, and wait about a year until it was any good before purchasing.
     
    • Informative x 1
  11. Matias

    Matias Active Member

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    "Hubris (/ˈhjuːbrɪs/, also hybris, from ancient Greek ὕβρις) describes a personality quality of extreme or foolish pride or dangerous over-confidence.[1] In its ancient Greek context, it typically describes behavior that defies the norms of behavior or challenges the gods, and which in turn brings about the downfall, or nemesis, of the perpetrator of hubris"

    No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  12. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    Well, here we are. 140 days ago Tesla told us that they'd have AP2 working just like AP1 within 70 days. But we're smarter than that, right? Elon Time! So we took a poll, and we guessed it would take twice that long. We were oh so wrong.

    To meet our estimate of March 10th as AP1 parity for AP2, Tesla needs to do the remaining things in the next 15 hours:
    • Increase highway autosteer speed from 55 MPH to 90 MPH
    • Increase TAAC speed from 70 MPH to 90 MPH
    • Enable automatic lane change with turn signal
    • Enable Blind spot detection
    • Enable Automatic Wipers
    • Enable Automatic High Beams
    • Enable auto emergency braking
    • Enable Summon
    • Fix the crazy wiggling of lane lines on the display
    • Start reading speed limit signs
    Even more insane, Elon actually said on Dec 22nd (78 days ago): "Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week." He also said that we will "definitely" see FSD be different from EAP within 130 days from now.

    Congrats to those of you with the vision to vote Q3 2017 and farther out. You're truly visionaries!
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
    • Love x 1
  13. Snowstorm

    Snowstorm Member

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    Parity to me isn't just about checking check boxes (autosteer at 90mph), but also about the effectiveness of the function. How good does auto-steer work at different situations? The avg number of disengagement (driver take over) required per 100 miles of AP driven on (highway, local roads) due to perceived poor performance at that situation. Those are as if not more important to me than just raising the speed, and oen would think Tesla would be keeping close tabs on those stats.
     
  14. croman

    croman Active Member

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    I marked Q2 2017 but forgot about it. I guess I knew more back then before Elon opened his big fat mouth and promised parity by Dec 31. Given my lack of Tesla ownership, I actually believed him.
     
  15. u00mem9

    u00mem9 Member

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    This!

    While I originally voted Q3 because I expected little issues to delay progress, I didn't really understand just how out of touch Elon is to reality...until now.

    One of the strengths of Steve Jobs' reality distortion field, was that it was bounded by what he could control. Elon controls nothing, and at this point has become a song-and-dance man for his struggling engineers.

    Changed to "2018+" today, and that is anticipating the following scenario:

    -system works poorly at identifying path vector
    -Tesla enables highway speed operation under intense pressure
    -major AP2 accident occurs (blame omitted because it is irrelevant)
    -Feds investigate and realize Tesla AP1 historical results have no bearing on AP2
    -Feds punish Tesla for being less than honest with them
    -Other automakers surpass AP1 function
    -Tesla is forced to re-apply Mobileye or other outside supplier to prevent further delay
     
    • Funny x 1

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