Poll: When will Model 3 deliveries overtake Bolt sales?

[Adm]

With the production and deliveries clearly ramping up it's a matter of time before Model 3 deliveries will overtake Bolt monthly sales. Question remains: When? Will Tesla be able to do it in January already?
Don't be shy! Speculate away.

 

[Zythryn]

Given GM's production estimates, and the 'new year slump', I expect the Bolt to sell 3000 max in Jan and again in Feb.
Tesla will produce more than 3000 in January, but I am not sure they will be able to deliver them. My guess is January, but February should be a lock.

 

[SageBrush]

In the blink of an eye.
Stay focused, or you will miss the blink

 

[Bad Horse]

February is the correct answer

 

[BerTX]

I agree with @Zythryn that Bolt sales will be about 3000 max for January. Tesla will be up to 4000 a WEEK if not there already. Why isn't December on the list? I put January, best answer available.

Although there is the delivered vs. sales issue, but since the deliveries are mostly in California, I think they can do it.

 

[Zythryn]

I agree with @Zythryn that Bolt sales will be about 3000 max for January. Tesla will be up to 4000 a WEEK if not there already. Why isn't December on the list? I put January, best answer available.

Although there is the delivered vs. sales issue, but since the deliveries are mostly in California, I think they can do it.

I can’t see Tesla delivering 4000 in December. I expect the Bolt to sell that many at a minimum with the typical end of year surge.
While highly variable, my guess is a 1000/week production rate in January for the Model 3.

 

[Pricee2]

I interpreted the question as total sales since the beginning of Bolt sales, not just the current sales. So The "Ides of March.

My bad, I just read Adm's post, but i"m stickin' to my predication for the total sales.

 

[TaoJones]

I still don't consider the Bolt to be in the same class as the 3. Unless and until there's some kind of proliferation of CCS chargers - and in more than onesie configurations.

Rather I consider the Bolt to be in the same class as that other poorly-designed sneaker, the i3. Throw in the Leaf and soon to be a half-dozen other contenders and that segment will indeed be crowded. But decidedly local and short-range in nature. See the well-received eGolf as an example.

Range limitations and more importantly, infrastructure limitations aside, the Model 3 should eclipse the Bolt in Q1. The irony being that people will still buy the sneakers and their ilk because they don't want to wait for a 3.

One has to wonder how the soon-to-be very attractively-priced Model S off-lease and similar inventory will play into people's buying decisions.

 

[Tforme]

I bought a Bolt, instead of a model three, to go along with my MS ownership. After a few months, I’m completely convinced it was the correct decision. Bolt is smaller, lighter, simpler. It has better visibility, easier egress/ingress and is much easier to maneuver in most situations. Nearly the same range as my S85 but way less than half the price and it’s reliability has so far been stellar. My S85 has required quite a lot of warranty repairs. It has been refreshing to buy a new Bolt, drive it six months, and never go back to the dealership for any reason.

If you only have one car, want an EV, and expect to take road trips - then the Tesla is the way to go. On the other hand, the Bolt will fulfill the needs of 90 percent of the people 90 percent of the time. I know mine is actually getting more daily use and more miles than the Tesla. But for the one or two road trips per year I take, the Tesla is the only choice - until and unless the public charging infrastructure improves a lot.

No doubt the model three sales will overtake the Bolt sometime soon. The real question is - what level of reliability will the model three provide? I have accepted the 12 unscheduled warranty repairs in four years on my MS mostly because it is a relatively early production vehicle. But I am not so sure early model three owners will be happy with this sort of repair record.

 

[Clomer]

I bought a Bolt, instead of a model three, to go along with my MS ownership. After a few months, I’m completely convinced it was the correct decision. Bolt is smaller, lighter, simpler. It has better visibility, easier egress/ingress and is much easier to maneuver in most situations. Nearly the same range as my S85 but way less than half the price and it’s reliability has so far been stellar. My S85 has required quite a lot of warranty repairs. It has been refreshing to buy a new Bolt, drive it six months, and never go back to the dealership for any reason.

If you only have one car, want an EV, and expect to take road trips - then the Tesla is the way to go. On the other hand, the Bolt will fulfill the needs of 90 percent of the people 90 percent of the time. I know mine is actually getting more daily use and more miles than the Tesla. But for the one or two road trips per year I take, the Tesla is the only choice - until and unless the public charging infrastructure improves a lot.

No doubt the model three sales will overtake the Bolt sometime soon. The real question is - what level of reliability will the model three provide? I have accepted the 12 unscheduled warranty repairs in four years on my MS mostly because it is a relatively early production vehicle. But I am not so sure early model three owners will be happy with this sort of repair record.

So you have a 2013 Model S, correct? While it is too early to tell for sure, it is likely that a 2017 Model S is, on average, much more reliable than a 2013 model. This is simply a result of Tesla getting more experience at making cars. Is it as good as a 2018 Bolt in that regard? Maybe. We'll know for sure in a few years.

My speculation is that a 2017 Model 3 will take a dip in reliability when compared to a 2017 Model S simply because it is a brand new model, and Tesla is still figuring out how to build it. That said, the reliability should ramp up much faster than it did with the Model S. This is part of why I'm in no huge hurry to get my own - I would prefer that others deal with the early production issues that are bound to crop up. My current plan is to wait until it gets to the same point as the Model S order-wise - place an order and have it delivered in a month or two. I expect this to take about 2 to 5 years.

 

[Tforme]

Yes, my MS is a Dec ‘13 build car. Not real early as they had been in production a year and a half by then. I’m pretty sure these newer build MS cars are more reliable.

Tesla has so rushed the M3 into production I’m just skeptical of its initial reliability -based on my own experience. True, it’s a simpler car and they now have more experience, so these things should help.

Just my estimation, but I don’t think your wait for the M3 will be anywhere near as long as you’ve stated. The Model X supposedly had a 2.5 year waiting list when introduced and, in spite of a slow start, less than a year later there were plenty available in teslas inventory.

 

[Darren Donovan]

I bought a Bolt, instead of a model three, to go along with my MS ownership. After a few months, I’m completely convinced it was the correct decision. Bolt is smaller, lighter, simpler. It has better visibility, easier egress/ingress and is much easier to maneuver in most situations. Nearly the same range as my S85 but way less than half the price and it’s reliability has so far been stellar. My S85 has required quite a lot of warranty repairs. It has been refreshing to buy a new Bolt, drive it six months, and never go back to the dealership for any reason.

If you only have one car, want an EV, and expect to take road trips - then the Tesla is the way to go. On the other hand, the Bolt will fulfill the needs of 90 percent of the people 90 percent of the time. I know mine is actually getting more daily use and more miles than the Tesla. But for the one or two road trips per year I take, the Tesla is the only choice - until and unless the public charging infrastructure improves a lot.

No doubt the model three sales will overtake the Bolt sometime soon. The real question is - what level of reliability will the model three provide? I have accepted the 12 unscheduled warranty repairs in four years on my MS mostly because it is a relatively early production vehicle. But I am not so sure early model three owners will be happy with this sort of repair record.

My sentiment exactly. The Bolt has been excellent, top notch reliability. Comfortable, plenty of tech and comfort features. For our family road trips, an ICE SUV is the way to go. No headache with random issues, long lines at SC locations.

 

[n00bie]

I see a lot of Bolts and a few Model 3 around here. I don't think they are in the same class. The Bolt is a small urban (mini) electric car. It actually looks kinda nice in person (simpler and cuter unlike the orange prototype). Tesla needs a whole new smart urban car to target the same audience.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

On the other hand, the Bolt will fulfill the needs of 90 percent of the people 90 percent of the time.

Sure, but then so will the LEAF, for $7500 less, have a nicer interior, and with 2-3x the production.

Glad you like the Bolt, but it has benefited from being first to market. That benefit is completely gone in January.

 

[voip-ninja]

So you have a 2013 Model S, correct? While it is too early to tell for sure, it is likely that a 2017 Model S is, on average, much more reliable than a 2013 model. This is simply a result of Tesla getting more experience at making cars. Is it as good as a 2018 Bolt in that regard? Maybe. We'll know for sure in a few years.

My speculation is that a 2017 Model 3 will take a dip in reliability when compared to a 2017 Model S simply because it is a brand new model, and Tesla is still figuring out how to build it. That said, the reliability should ramp up much faster than it did with the Model S. This is part of why I'm in no huge hurry to get my own - I would prefer that others deal with the early production issues that are bound to crop up. My current plan is to wait until it gets to the same point as the Model S order-wise - place an order and have it delivered in a month or two. I expect this to take about 2 to 5 years.

Even automakers with many decades of manufacturing experience have problems during the first full 1-2 years of production of a new model. Some of this is down to changes in new models that can only be vetted in the field and some of it is down to issues when suppliers are asked to produce new parts.

I expect Tesla 3 will suffer from both of these issues and Tesla will have more problems than say GM/Toyota/BMW/Mercedes would have with a new model year car.

Only time will tell. Now that the tax credit is back in play for pretty much all of 2018 (even if it's down to 25% at the end) I am possibly going to delay my M3 delivery until I must take it, to give Tesla as much time as possible to iron bugs out.

If initial reliability is reported by owners to be truly terrible then I'll be buying or leasing something else.

 

[DarthPierce]

Only time will tell. Now that the tax credit is back in play for pretty much all of 2018 (even if it's down to 25% at the end) I am possibly going to delay my M3 delivery until I must take it, to give Tesla as much time as possible to iron bugs out.

Unless there is another change to tax policy, all of '18 will be at at least 50% credit.
The quickest possible phase out is if they hit 200k in Q1. Then full credit for Q2 and 1/2 credit for Q3 and 4. Q1 and 2 of 2019 at 25%.

The other possibility is if the ramp is slow enough/ they hold in transit enough/ enough Sand X are international such that 200k US deliveries is achieved in (early) Q2, then all of Q2 and Q3 are 100% and Q4 and Q1-19 are 50% and the 25% lasts through Q3-19.

 

[Skidmark]

The Bolt is not capable of enhanced autopilot features, and that's what makes it a non-starter for me.

 

[Tforme]

After just spending a couple of days in a brand new 100d loaner while my older (non AP) S85 was serviced, I’m quite happy I don’t have the “advanced AP”. It’s even scarier than the original Mobileye based AP. Aggravating, useless and even dangerous in its current configuration. Maybe sometime off in the future with lots more development - but right now, no thanks.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

After just spending a couple of days in a brand new 100d loaner while my older (non AP) S85 was serviced, I’m quite happy I don’t have the “advanced AP”. It’s even scarier than the original Mobileye based AP. Aggravating, useless and even dangerous in its current configuration. Maybe sometime off in the future with lots more development - but right now, no thanks.

I have found EAP to be quite capable. *shrugs*

 

[ElecFan]

After just spending a couple of days in a brand new 100d loaner while my older (non AP) S85 was serviced, I’m quite happy I don’t have the “advanced AP”. It’s even scarier than the original Mobileye based AP. Aggravating, useless and even dangerous in its current configuration. Maybe sometime off in the future with lots more development - but right now, no thanks.

This EAP looks okay to me:

As is the lane change version: