I think Q4 2021. I hope it happens sooner of course. But we know it will take at least a few months of testing in beta and then it might need a couple more months to fix bugs. So I figured Q4 2021 was a pretty safe bet. Also safer for the entire public for it to be tested thoroughly. I hope they don't rush it cause I want a good and safe product without to much problems. It looks like a very cool item. Once perfected it will be a life changer for some.
My guess is that the “careful drivers” who have been selected are people who have used present FSD extensively and shown their interest in working with a beta product safely. I am unlikely to be selected as I find Navigate on Autopilot to be more trouble than it is worth. I have to pay more attention to it due to it making poor choices and repeatedly trying to do those choices even when I indicate not to. I would like FSD to be an actual driver aid, and it looks like the new FSD release requires a lot of work by the driver. Those who enjoy that sort of thing are the right people to get that release. I will not want it until it requires less work by me than if I were not using it.
What it needs to do what? This question is about when (if?) beta FSD will be released to the HW3 fleet in the US. Tesla could release it today if they wanted to.