TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

POLL: When will Tesla pass VW to become the 2nd most valuable auto manufacturer?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jkirkwood001, Jan 7, 2020.

?

When will TSLA ctach VW (VOW) in market cap?

  1. 2020-Jan-10 (<3 days)

  2. 2020-Jan-14 (1 week)

  3. 2020-Jan-21 (2 weeks)

  4. 2020-Jan-28 (3 weeks)

  5. 2020-Feb (1 month)

  6. 2020-Apr (3 months)

  7. 2020 (1 year)

  8. Not in the foreseeable future (never)

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    #1 jkirkwood001, Jan 7, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2020
    I've been blown away by the rapid rise in Tesla's market capitalization since June 1, 2018, especially in comparison to the other global auto manufacturers. I have posted regular updates in this forum.

    As of today Jan 7th, Tesla (TSLA) is worth $84.7 B. VW (VOW), the second most valuable auto manufacturer, is worth $87.6 B, only $3.1 B (3.5%) more.

    Back in June, Tesla was worth $39 B less than VW and was at most the 8th most valuable auto manufacturer. Today, they are third. When will Tesla become the second most valuable auto manufacturer?

    upload_2020-1-7_14-39-9.png
     
  2. MichaelP90DL

    MichaelP90DL Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,525
    Location:
    Lancaster, CA
    Assuming Tesla reports strong earnings for 2019 Q4, the stock will jump and that $3.1B gap will suddenly close.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  3. Sudre

    Sudre Active Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,012
    Short (covering) term or long term?
    At this rate TSLA will be worth more than Toyota if the shorts actually ever cover. What we don't know is where it will average out at again once that happens. I'm thinking between $400-$500... At least until the non-auto stuff starts to show huge profits.
     
    • Like x 2
  4. Doit

    Doit Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2017
    Messages:
    82
    Location:
    NC
    Is that $87.6 B VW market cap in Euro? From iPhone Stocks app, VWAGY has 97.09 at close of Tue.
     
  5. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    I use the GOOGLEFINANCE() function [ =GOOGLEFINANCE("VOW","marketcap") ]. I assume by default it returns in $US, not the source currency Euros, nor $CA since I'm in Canada. The live Google function aligns with the posted marketcap:

    upload_2020-1-8_9-10-40.png
     

    Attached Files:

    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  6. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    1,155
    Location:
    Newark, OH, USA
    I believe all figures are returned in the same currency, and that's EUR for VOW. Try =GOOGLEFINANCE("VOW","currency") - I believe that will spit out EUR.

    (I just changed my vote in light of that.)
     
  7. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    #7 jkirkwood001, Jan 8, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
    Whoops.

    Thanks so much for pushing me on this, @bhtooefr . I've been calculating wrong all this time, even though I knew that the German quotes were coming from Stuttgart. So my chart's have been off ~11% for VW, Daimler, and BMW all along. :confused: I'm going to have to post a retraction in the main thread. :(

    So Tesla HAS already passed Volkswagen to become the second most valuable auto manufacturer. I estimate this took place on the 19th of December.

    upload_2020-1-8_13-12-14.png

    FYI I've updated my spreadsheet to include the EURUSD exchange rate of the given day:

    upload_2020-1-8_13-14-10.png

    n.b. I routinely use a ISFORMULA() conditional format to grey-out / avoid cells with formulas.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    1,155
    Location:
    Newark, OH, USA
    I think you did the EUR->USD conversion backwards - 1 EUR is 1.11 USD. Which means Volkswagen is worth more, not less, in USD, than you had them originally.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    I think you're right. Grr. Will re-re-update later today.

    Thanks.

    PS I notice the sweet Miata in your avatar, @bhtooefr . I sold my cherished 2007 Miata last fall (also had a 1990 model years ago) - I just couldn't justify owning two fun cars to drive and got rid of the one that spews carbon! :)

    upload_2020-1-9_10-3-37.png
     
    • Like x 1
  10. MichaelP90DL

    MichaelP90DL Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,525
    Location:
    Lancaster, CA
    I've always thought the Miata was a sexy little car. :)
     
  11. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    Thanks to @bhtooefr , it's clear I messed up again on the currency conversion of the German makers. So the facts are as follows (yikes, I hope I'm right this time!):
    • VW: US$100.2 B
    • Tesla: US$86.6 B
    • Gap between 3rd and 2nd: US$13.4 B (15.5%)
    • Comparison to US manufacturers stay as previously posted, i.e. Tesla now more valuable than GM and Ford together
    So feel free to change your vote!

    Sorry for the error, all.

    upload_2020-1-9_23-55-21.png
     
    • Like x 1
  12. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    So last week I screwed up on the conversion for shares traded in Euros (VW, Daimler and BMW - see corrections above). It made the timeline for this post way too optimistic.

    ... or did it?

    With Tesla rising another 10% so far today, the race is back on. TSLA is "only" US$8.8 B (9%) away from passing VW as the second most valuable auto manufacturer stock:

    upload_2020-1-13_15-52-5.png

    Care to update your vote on when TSLA will pass VOW?
     
  13. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    Only $5.4 B to go...

    upload_2020-1-14_17-5-8.png
     
  14. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    1,155
    Location:
    Newark, OH, USA
    If my post-market calculations are correct, it's ~US$210M of market cap away from happening.

    Which means my (revised in light of the errors in the original graph) vote wasn't it... but it may well happen tomorrow premarket, as more covering happens.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    Messages:
    1,155
    Location:
    Newark, OH, USA
    Boom. It's done. TSLA has exceeded VOW's market cap.

    (I'm seeing 90.08B EUR (or 99.92B USD) for VOW:FRA, and TSLA is 563.50 USD in premarket, putting the market cap at 101.57B USD.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  16. AudubonB

    AudubonB One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    7,869
    Although speling misteaks are a Forbidden Topic in TMC, I just looked at your thread’s title and saw that you badly misspelled “Toyota”.
     
    • Funny x 2
  17. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2018
    Messages:
    934
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC