POLL: When will Tesla pass VW to become the 2nd most valuable auto manufacturer?

[jkirkwood001]

I've been blown away by the rapid rise in Tesla's market capitalization since June 1, 2018, especially in comparison to the other global auto manufacturers. I have posted regular updates in this forum.

As of today Jan 7th, Tesla (TSLA) is worth $84.7 B. VW (VOW), the second most valuable auto manufacturer, is worth $87.6 B, only $3.1 B (3.5%) more.

Back in June, Tesla was worth $39 B less than VW and was at most the 8th most valuable auto manufacturer. Today, they are third. When will Tesla become the second most valuable auto manufacturer?

 

[MichaelP90DL]

Assuming Tesla reports strong earnings for 2019 Q4, the stock will jump and that $3.1B gap will suddenly close.

 

[Sudre]

Short (covering) term or long term?
At this rate TSLA will be worth more than Toyota if the shorts actually ever cover. What we don't know is where it will average out at again once that happens. I'm thinking between $400-$500... At least until the non-auto stuff starts to show huge profits.

 

[Doit]

Is that $87.6 B VW market cap in Euro? From iPhone Stocks app, VWAGY has 97.09 at close of Tue.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Is that $87.6 B VW market cap in Euro? From iPhone Stocks app, VWAGY has 97.09 at close of Tue.

I use the GOOGLEFINANCE() function [ =GOOGLEFINANCE("VOW","marketcap") ]. I assume by default it returns in $US, not the source currency Euros, nor $CA since I'm in Canada. The live Google function aligns with the posted marketcap:

 

[bhtooefr]

I believe all figures are returned in the same currency, and that's EUR for VOW. Try =GOOGLEFINANCE("VOW","currency") - I believe that will spit out EUR.

(I just changed my vote in light of that.)

 

[jkirkwood001]

I believe all figures are returned in the same currency, and that's EUR for VOW. Try =GOOGLEFINANCE("VOW","currency") - I believe that will spit out EUR.

(I just changed my vote in light of that.)

Whoops.

Thanks so much for pushing me on this, @bhtooefr . I've been calculating wrong all this time, even though I knew that the German quotes were coming from Stuttgart. So my chart's have been off ~11% for VW, Daimler, and BMW all along. I'm going to have to post a retraction in the main thread.

So Tesla HAS already passed Volkswagen to become the second most valuable auto manufacturer. I estimate this took place on the 19th of December.

FYI I've updated my spreadsheet to include the EURUSD exchange rate of the given day:

n.b. I routinely use a ISFORMULA() conditional format to grey-out / avoid cells with formulas.

 

[bhtooefr]

I think you did the EUR->USD conversion backwards - 1 EUR is 1.11 USD. Which means Volkswagen is worth more, not less, in USD, than you had them originally.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I think you did the EUR->USD conversion backwards - 1 EUR is 1.11 USD. Which means Volkswagen is worth more, not less, in USD, than you had them originally.

I think you're right. Grr. Will re-re-update later today.

Thanks.

PS I notice the sweet Miata in your avatar, @bhtooefr . I sold my cherished 2007 Miata last fall (also had a 1990 model years ago) - I just couldn't justify owning two fun cars to drive and got rid of the one that spews carbon!

 

[MichaelP90DL]

I think you're right. Grr. Will re-re-update later today.

Thanks.

PS I notice the sweet Miata in your avatar, @bhtooefr . I sold my cherished 2007 Miata last fall (also had a 1990 model years ago) - I just couldn't justify owning two fun cars to drive and got rid of the one that spews carbon!

View attachment 498225

I've always thought the Miata was a sexy little car.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Thanks to @bhtooefr , it's clear I messed up again on the currency conversion of the German makers. So the facts are as follows (yikes, I hope I'm right this time!):

• VW: US$100.2 B
• Tesla: US$86.6 B
• Gap between 3rd and 2nd: US$13.4 B (15.5%)
• Comparison to US manufacturers stay as previously posted, i.e. Tesla now more valuable than GM and Ford together

So feel free to change your vote!

Sorry for the error, all.

 

[jkirkwood001]

So last week I screwed up on the conversion for shares traded in Euros (VW, Daimler and BMW - see corrections above). It made the timeline for this post way too optimistic.

... or did it?

With Tesla rising another 10% so far today, the race is back on. TSLA is "only" US$8.8 B (9%) away from passing VW as the second most valuable auto manufacturer stock:

Care to update your vote on when TSLA will pass VOW?

 

[jkirkwood001]

Only $5.4 B to go...

 

[bhtooefr]

If my post-market calculations are correct, it's ~US$210M of market cap away from happening.

Which means my (revised in light of the errors in the original graph) vote wasn't it... but it may well happen tomorrow premarket, as more covering happens.

 

[bhtooefr]

Boom. It's done. TSLA has exceeded VOW's market cap.

(I'm seeing 90.08B EUR (or 99.92B USD) for VOW:FRA, and TSLA is 563.50 USD in premarket, putting the market cap at 101.57B USD.

 

[AudubonB]

Although speling misteaks are a Forbidden Topic in TMC, I just looked at your thread’s title and saw that you badly misspelled “Toyota”.

 

[jkirkwood001]

You're right, @bhtooefr !