Poll : When will Tesla release FSD Beta 11 ?

[EVNow]

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now.

When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ?
See this thread for details on 11.

FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN. From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included. - Object permanence both...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[whoosierdaddy]

May

 

[diplomat33]

I voted Feb 2022. That is probably way too optimistic. But the reason for it is that we have seen pretty regular updates to FSD Beta every 2 weeks and we are at 10.8. Also, we know that 11 is in alpha and Elon said they almost released it last year. So it is close. It is conceivable we see 10.9 in 2 weeks, maybe 10.9.1 a week later, maybe 11 three weeks after that. So Feb is not completely impossible if Tesla keeps to a ~2-3 week release schedule.

 

[Twiglett]

I'm guessing we will see at least 10.15, maybe higher before we get to V11
At least I'm hoping that is the case.
Don't fancy driving highways with an updated 10.8 in control

 

[EVNow]

Looks like I’m more pessimistic than most of the votes. Let me just say, I’d ecstatic if we get it in Q1.

 

[hamoneaster]

Yeah, I think it'll be mid to late 2022 and that's being optimistic. I think they will release 10.9, then 10.10, then 10.11, and so forth.

Though that begs me to ask: are there two teams working on FSD? One on the current vision-based and one on the presumed photo-based? Seems counterproductive to keep releasing vision-based stuff if we know that it's going to have to be re-written completely and start with a new system. We've seen this strategy for FSD in beta for over a year now. If Telsa knows it won't be sufficient, then stop there and focus all time/energy/engineers to build the new system than to continue working on a dead end?

 

[JulienW]

Oddly last year it was a new version almost every release. If Tesla had been as conservative on version numbers as they have been on the last few we would probably be on 4.x/5.x now instead of 10.x.

 

[EVNow]

So, Elon says probably next month. That puts 11 likely in a couple months, rather than end of the year ?

May be Elon thinks it would be ideal to go to 11 from 10.9 ….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479590174828998663

 

[EVNow]

Oddly last year it was a new version almost every release. If Tesla had been as conservative on version numbers as they have been on the last few we would probably be on 4.x/5.x now instead of 10.x.

Or below 1.0 as I like doing. All my versions start with 0.1 and continue that way until I hit wide release, which will be 1.0

 

[Jeff N]

To the extent that they can, I’m gonna guess that the engineers will take some of the more mature aspects of FSD V11 and dribble them piece by piece into continuing 10.X releases and then finally switch to 11 rather than switching to a lot of newly redone fundamental components all at once like Elon wants to do.

This will reduce risk and allow further testing and development of weaker V11 components and architecture internally. This is probably only possible for some aspects of V11 that aren’t tightly interdependent on the full new architecture stack.

They already seem to have started doing this in 10.9 with the switch to photon count streams instead of tonemapped images and the data structure rewrite for handing intersection right of way modeling. Both of these changes seem to rely on new compiler features and this feels to me like things that were originally developed and targeted for FSD V11. Maybe?

 

[Rxdr John]

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now.

When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ?
See this thread for details on 11.

FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN. From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included. - Object permanence both...

teslamotorsclub.com

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now.

When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ?
See this thread for details on 11.

FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN. From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included. - Object permanence both...

teslamotorsclub.com

Tonight -4 hrs

 

[Rxdr John]

Elon Musk said in a recent interview with Lex Fridman that release 11, which would have significant fundamental changes to FSD Beta is in "alpha" stage now.

When do you think Tesla will release FSD Beta v11.x to most of the current testers ?
See this thread for details on 11.

FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN. From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included. - Object permanence both...

teslamotorsclub.com

11 is coming in 4 to 6 hours!!!

 

[Raurele]

11 is coming in 4 to 6 hours!!!

Any source whatsoever? Lol

 

[sleepydoc]

You need to add another answer: “weeks later than we all want it!”

 

[EVNow]

11 is coming in 4 to 6 hours!!!

Any source whatsoever? Lol

I'm guessing its a joke ...

ps : There are people on twitter speculating today a new release will be out - and Omar as usual is hyper optimistic it would be 11.

 

[tmoz]

I voted Feb 2022. That is probably way too optimistic. But the reason for it is that we have seen pretty regular updates to FSD Beta every 2 weeks and we are at 10.8. Also, we know that 11 is in alpha and Elon said they almost released it last year. So it is close. It is conceivable we see 10.9 in 2 weeks, maybe 10.9.1 a week later, maybe 11 three weeks after that. So Feb is not completely impossible if Tesla keeps to a ~2-3 week

I'm thinking it will be in summer sometime. Based on the state of 10.xx today and how much more improvement is needed.

 

[EVNow]

I chose Q4 - before Elon talked about releasing "next month". Now that Q1 is getting over - hopefully next quarter.

 

[JulienW]

I voted March and thought that was a little pessimistic. I would change to change to April-June (June being most likely) but also thinking that may be too optimistic. Damn the updates are going so slow now. Looks like chasing those 0.999x may have started well before reaching 1.0.

 

[nvx1977]

I voted March and thought that was a little pessimistic. I would change to change to April-June (June being most likely) but also thinking that may be too optimistic. Damn the updates are going so slow now. Looks like chasing those 0.999x may have started well before reaching 1.0.

yeah based on the tweets from Q4 2021, it seemed like they were close, so I thought Q1 2022 was a sure thing. I would change to Apr-Jun as well.

 

[OncomingStorm]

i still think they very much think/thought they are super close to v11, which might be the reason for the slow down in updates, no sence in training features that are about to be removed or modified. obvious speculation but if right v11 could pop up at any time really. or in 2025 who knows! haha