Poll - when will TSLA be included in S&P500?

[Buckminster]

The feeling here is that post Q1 2020 ER, S&P500 inclusion is likely. See here as an example:

Shall TSLA be added to S&P500? (out of main)

Factchecking has made similar statements.

Does everyone agree?

 

[SpaceCash]

I voted Uberbull February.
Because that's my birthday month and the Titans are going to win the superbowl, and their logo is a ripoff of the Tesla T.

I am the goodest investor

If not Feb, April or May are obviously the only two other reasonable options

 

[Johann Koeber]

Voted May 2020, assuming we hit the profit numbers in Q1. This will be published End of April.
Then it does take time for the comity to get together and decide.

 

[reddy]

To be added to the S&P 500, the following criteria must be met:

• It must be a U.S. company.
• The market cap must be $5.3 billion or more.
• The public float must consist of at least 50% of outstanding shares.
• It must have positive reported earnings in the most recent quarter, as well as over the four most recent quarters.
• The stock must have an active market and must trade for a reasonable share price.

If they report enough positive earnings to be profitable over the last 4 quarters, then it would be eligible.

That's a big IF. The earnings will be key, not the market capitalization.

 

[reddy]

In order to qualify based on 2019 Q4 earnings, TSLA will need to earn $2.17 per share or more.

However the street consensus , which is usually WAY off, is $1.44 per share.

So, the money would be on - March 2020 if Q4 earnings are >$2.17

and June 2020 if Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 earnings are both positive.

I

Note that the Net profit is reported with GAAP, and the per share is non-GAAP.

 

[JRP3]

Remember that even after all the criteria are met it is up to an anonymous committee to actually add the stock to the S&P. I'm betting there will be a lot of pressure from certain powerful interests to keep it out as long as possible, so I picked August.

 

[hacer]

The feeling here is that post Q1 2020 ER, S&P500 inclusion is likely. See here as an example:

Shall TSLA be added to S&P500? (out of main)

Factchecking has made similar statements.

Does everyone agree?

I think Tesla will reach eligibility after Q1 2020; however, I believe that Standard and Poors will mysteriously not add them to the index until they have been eligible continuously for a year.

 

[Toolsmack]

The pessimist in me is thinking that Q4 won’t be enough to get the last 4 qtrs +, and then Q1 2020 will be much better than Q1 2019 but will still be negative, requiring us to wait until Q2 2020 earnings are announced, and then some red tape time added in. September 2020