Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Hmm.. Maybe he stole a copy of the software that runs the simulation we're all living in?
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Poll : When will Waymo cover top 50 cities in US ?
- Thread starter EVNow
- Start date
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Here is some more information to back up my claim about DeKort.
This is from the SAE:
And,
Michael DeKort is the founder and CTO of AV simulation developer Dactle. So I think he has an obvious bias. If he is on such a crusade against the simulation methods of Waymo, Cruise and others, it could be because he is the CTO of his own AV simulation developer company. He clearly wants Waymo and others to adopt his company's simulation.
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Companies have forever prevented people from knowing what is going on based on "trade secrets" BS.
For eg. companies won't disclose what chemicals they are pumping into get fracking gas out - claiming "trade secrets". When public interest trumps trade secrets, they should be disclosed.
Funny you have no problem when Tesla does it.
Tesla/SpaceX/Elon tries skirts every regulation known to man and is the most opaque company ever and creates BS narrative that their fans spread and u don't bat an eye.
Heck they are doing it right now by seeking out and not reporting disengagements to CA DMV.
I absolutely have problems when Tesla does it.
Just like I don't like that Tesla doesn't support unions and unions don't support EVs.
Or for that matter how rampant racism is in Tesla and other companies.
I'd be against Tesla suing to keep crash information out of public domain.
Really? So why ain't you up in arms that Tesla doesn't disclose ALL their disengagements to CA DMV?
Why ain't you up in arms that Tesla doesn't disclose all their accidents/collisions/contact with CA DMV and NHTSA?
Every single other self driving company does. EVERY ONE OF THEM. Other than tesla.
There has been hundreds of accident/collisions with the FSD Beta and Elon claims there are no "accidents" because he classifies accident as "if the airbag deploy". But you can smash into building and the airbag won't deploy. Others report everything. Heck the first Waymo and only waymo accident where they were at fault was when they hit a bus going 1mph. Yet that is reported as an accident.
Pony.AI just got their testing license suspended because they strapped a center divider and traffic sign. Again they reported it.
Tesla doesn't. Even the latest AddictAI hitting a bollard ISNT an accident. Its BS. Why aint you up in arms? Everyone else reports even a slight contact. Tesla doesn't.
California suspends Pony.ai's driverless testing after accident
Following an accident on October 28 while operating a vehicle in autonomous mode, Pony.ai's driverless testing permit has been suspended.
www.therobotreport.com
You can run into a building and the airbag won't deploy. But hey 10x safer right?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Waymo co-CEOs are being very tight lipped about their road map. They won't say what the next city will be in Waymo's expansion after Phoenix and SF. But here is what I got from the recent CEO talks:
So where do we think Waymo will expand next?
Personally, I think LA and NYC are the two most likely cities for future expansion. We know Waymo is actively testing in both cities. Additionally, both cities meet Waymo's criteria of market demand and interesting edge cases. So I think they check all the boxes. LA probably has less regulatory hurdles since Waymo already has a testing permit for CA and will likely get the permit for paid driverless soon. I am not sure if NYC even allows paid driverless ride-hailing. They allow limited AV testing. So there might more regulatory hurdles for Waymo to deploy paid driverless in NYC. So my guess is LA will be next, followed by NYC afterwards. I think we will see paid driverless in SF and downtown Phoenix this Fall followed by the launch of trusted rider program in LA early next year.
- Waymo's plan is to go "city by city".
- The ultimate goal is to eventually deploy "everywhere that people need to go or that goods need to move."
- Waymo will look at "market demand" to pick the next city.
- Waymo tests in cities that can improve the Waymo Driver the most. The learning is shared across the fleet. Each city helps Waymo master more driving cases. Phoenix helped Waymo master 45 mph wide roads in suburban driving. SF helped Waymo master lower speeds but busier streets. Waymo testing in NYC to learn about dense urban driving. The goal is to master a big enough % of driving scenarios that expanding to N+1 cities becomes very fast.
- Next steps in Phoenix is to add airport to downtown area, open up driverless to the public and connect downtown area to Chandler area.
- Next steps in SF is to open up driverless to the public.
- Waymo will expand to another city after scaling the 5th Gen in SF and Phoenix gets on the "right trajectory".
So where do we think Waymo will expand next?
Personally, I think LA and NYC are the two most likely cities for future expansion. We know Waymo is actively testing in both cities. Additionally, both cities meet Waymo's criteria of market demand and interesting edge cases. So I think they check all the boxes. LA probably has less regulatory hurdles since Waymo already has a testing permit for CA and will likely get the permit for paid driverless soon. I am not sure if NYC even allows paid driverless ride-hailing. They allow limited AV testing. So there might more regulatory hurdles for Waymo to deploy paid driverless in NYC. So my guess is LA will be next, followed by NYC afterwards. I think we will see paid driverless in SF and downtown Phoenix this Fall followed by the launch of trusted rider program in LA early next year.
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
IMO, Waymo will definitely have FSD capable of safe driverless in the top 50 US cities by 2028. Whether Waymo can deploy a commercial ride-hailing robotaxi service in that many cities by then is a different matter. Deploying a successful commercial robotaxi service in the top 50 US cities would require a lot of testing, logistics, customer service, regulatory approval etc... So that process might take longer.
I do think we will see Waymo expand exponentially because of the fact that Waymo can transfer what they learn from one city to the next. So Waymo is not starting from scratch. They have a generalized FSD and as it learns and gets better, it will be able to handle new cities faster and faster. And Waymo will make their testing and validation processes more efficient too.
By the way, what did you think of Waymo's "symphony" paper? I'd love to have your thoughts on it.
Thanks