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Poll: Which will come first: Person landing on Mars or U.S. wide level 4 FSD?
- Thread starter DanCar
- Start date
Soda Popinski
Member
powertoold
Active Member
All these polls are so ambiguous! It's going to generate more infinite loopy (looney) discussions.
I'm voting for the one where 50% of people dying is acceptable and expected vs the one where 0.00001% is completely unacceptable.
Does a RUD of a vehicle on FSD count?
Yeah, we have to have some way of entertaining ourselves.
What is your estimate or guestimate for FSD timeline?
Barklikeadog
Active Member
Soda Popinski
Member
Let's just say even money if we're racing FSD with boots on the Moon, instead of Mars. I reserve the right to change my mind when I see the next FSD beta update in "two weeks."
He is going to keep stringing us along for the next 10 years with the next release is going to be awesome, quantum leap, blow your mind, 1000 improvements, rewrite, AI improvements, price increase, regulatory approval, HW4 with increased resolution, etc...
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Automation works best when its environment is well defined and predictable.
Once you have an automatic elevator, it would work very well because it knows the distance of floor to floor and how many floors there are but don't trick it with a new variable that now the distance between the floors are changed and even the numbers of the floors are changed.
That's why level 5 FSD would take a long time.
To speed that up, level 4 FSD would try to make something predictable such as Waymo's 50 squared miles in Chandler, AZ, no snow...
On the other hand, routing to mars is quite predictable, programmable. You wait for that time of the year that you would get the shortest distance from the earth to mars. Make sure all variables are accounted for fuel, gravity...
So, I would say going to mars would have a much better chance than US widely available L4 FSD.
Soda Popinski
Member
Automation / astrogation aren't the only challenges of getting people to Mars. You need to invent more efficient radiation shielding, possibly develop nuclear propulsion, develop on orbit refueling, develop in situ resource utilization capable of refueling a return mission, send said refueling / mining station to Mars prior to sending crew, develop a way to aerobrake a vehicle larger than anything ever sent to Mars, land said vehicle, develop an ascent vehicle...
Just throw some Neural Networks at the problem, they will figure it out.
Tam
Well-Known Member
You are correct that colonizing mars takes much more time than just "Person Landing on mars".
We already landed person on moon, machines on mars, but colonizing the nearest moon is still taking a very long time so colonizing much further distant mars will take much longer.
I’m not sure level 4 will really be obtained in a wide scale. Self driving is the cfl light bulb of transportation. Teleportation will be the LED bulb. Once you can teleport putting boots on Mars is a trivial task. Ergo boots on Mars first...
I would like to see widely-available full-self driving (L4 or better) with reliable, safe operation in any mapped area, regardless of traffic conditions, or time of day, and in non-inclement weather conditions. I doubt that it'll happen this decade. Perhaps it might happen before the end of the following decade, with some (likely annoying) limitations around traffic conditions.
Pessimistic? Nah... I try to be pragmatic!
Pessimistic? Nah... I try to be pragmatic!
I think they'll launch some dead Star Trek/Star Wars actor's or actress's ashes to Mars within the next few years, in all likelihood, so I'm leaning towards "Person landing on Mars" on a technicality.
Tesomega
Member
Good point. If FSD is 50% better then it will kill half as many.Both are going to kill some humans before it can be realized. Hoping for the best
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