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Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Haxster, Apr 30, 2016.

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Do you think that you will get the full U.S. tax credit on your Model 3?

  1. For sure

    55 vote(s)
    20.3%
  2. Probably

    94 vote(s)
    34.7%
  3. Maybe

    58 vote(s)
    21.4%
  4. Not likely

    38 vote(s)
    14.0%
  5. Nope

    14 vote(s)
    5.2%
  6. I'm not in the U.S.

    12 vote(s)
    4.4%
  1. Haxster

    Haxster Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    114
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Or will it run out before you get your Model 3?

    For more details about the tax credit see: Tax Credit Clarification
     
  2. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,251
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Tesla has a lot riding on delivering the model 3 on time. My reservation was placed somewhere between 115k to 140K mark. If we take out the non-US orders from that number, and consider that I'll jump ahead when I order all the premium options. I figure for the midwest I'll be in a pretty good position to be likely in the 1st phase out period. This of course assumes that if they are on time that they delay the 200,000th car until the beginning of a quarter. That's the only way the phase 1 credit goes for six full months. The credit lasts for the remainder of that quarter AND a full calendar quarter. Theoretically you could have 200,000 cars plus 6 months worth of deliveries for the full 100% credit.

    Depending on how many they can crank out during this time, that could amount to a very large percentage of the US preorders getting a full credit. Assuming no delays and no huge increase in model s/x orders between now and then.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    1,237
    Location:
    Palmdale, CA
    I figure I might get a partial credit. I have some advantages (ordered first day, CA resident), but I doubt I will be buying a "P" model 3, and I will be skipping on the air suspension due to long term reliability concerns.

    On the S and X, going with coil suspension pushed you back a ways.
     
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    • Like x 1
  4. Unchangeable

    Unchangeable Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    8
    Location:
    27012
    Not getting a fully optioned out car <42k but I was first day in store reservation on the east coast... So best case I would think 50\50
     
    • Like x 1
  5. deonb

    deonb Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    3,020
    Location:
    Redmond, WA
    Ordered first day, early in line, prior Tesla owner, West Coast, fully optioned.

    I figure... yeah :).
     
  6. Tiberius

    Tiberius Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
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    270
    Location:
    SoCal
    #6 Tiberius, Apr 30, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2016
    Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

    If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.
     
  7. ummgood

    ummgood Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    283
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    I waited in line early in Austin. I was number 106 in line. I plan on getting at least dual motor and upgraded battery. I figure I was around top 15k reservations in the US conservatively. I sure plan on using the full tax credit.
     
  8. frozenpenguin

    frozenpenguin Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Location:
    Indiana
    Placed my order around 1pm on 1st day in Chicago. I'm also budgeting $45-50K for the car so I'm fairly confident (hopeful) I'll get the full amount.
     
  9. Haxster

    Haxster Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
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    114
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Another perspective:

    1. When a manufacturer is production constrained, they want to put as many high-margin options in the product they can. This has been Tesla's strategy.

    2. But when you're parts constrained, you need to modify 1. by not building cars with parts that you can't get.

    So, what high-margin parts might Tesla not be able to get during the early production of the Model 3?
    Well, batteries is a likely candidate. Tesla Motors is not the only customer of the Gigafactory. There will be competition for their output.

    What could this mean to Model 3 reservation holders?
    During a constrained battery production ramp-up, would Tesla rather sell two loaded 45KWh Model 3s or one 90kWh version? And keep in mind that high-margin Model S/Xs would likely get first dibs on any limited initial battery supply.

    To those anxious to get their Model 3, the assumption that you will need to order lots of performance and range options may not be the best strategy. It could turn out that the first orders to ship are for highly loaded cars with the SMALLEST batteries.

    Time will tell...
     
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    • Like x 1
    • Dislike x 1
  10. Disneyhorse

    Disneyhorse Member

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2016
    Messages:
    5
    Location:
    Anaheim CA
    I voted "Maybe"... I reserved 3/31 at 4pm in CA. Even the $3750 would be fantastic. With no tax credit, still getting the car but I'll be less tempted by options.
     
  11. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2015
    Messages:
    589
    Location:
    Canton, NC
    within the first 10,000 orders or so, and will go highly optioned (hopefully ludicrous if the price is right). The only thing keeping me out of round one is being on the east coast and not a current owner
     
  12. Gen3Joe

    Gen3Joe Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Location:
    United States
    I put probably.

    I was third in line on 3/31 and reserved at 10:03am. I plan to order the performance model but will skip all the luxury items. This atypical configuration may push me back in the line a bit. Hopefully living on the west coast will make up for it.
     
  13. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2015
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    589
    Location:
    Canton, NC
    I'd say you're definitely, unless they really don't ramp up production.
     
  14. grashelm

    grashelm Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2016
    Messages:
    44
    Location:
    Florida
    What exactly are you basing this statement on? How many orders were there in the first couple of hours after online orders started? How many of those orders were in the US? Saying they are practically guaranteed not to get it is at best really nothing more than a wild a$$ed guess on your part.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. Boourns

    Boourns Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2016
    Messages:
    663
    Location:
    Dallas
    My guess is probably. Ordered in store 3/31, though not til about 5 p.m.; Midwest region; current owner.
     
  16. MarcCBR

    MarcCBR Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Location:
    San Diego
    I voted for sure. Live in California, was about 100th in line at the store and will be budgeting $45k - $50k for the car.
     
  17. Mkorpal

    Mkorpal Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2016
    Messages:
    110
    Location:
    Denver
    Where's the option for it doesn't matter, I'm probably not going to be able to use the whole thing anyway.
     
  18. 2early4flapjacks

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Location:
    Maple Valley, Wa
    19th in line on the west coast. Probably. Could be wrong though. May have to option down as tax credit depletes.
     
  19. jsanford

    jsanford Red 3 Reserver

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    38
    Location:
    Seattle
    Not really counting on it while saving up, but hoping for the reduced sales tax in WA. We're also going to talk to the dealer to confirm we can install our home charging system now, since that tax credit expires after 2016 (source: State & Federal Incentives | Plug In America)
     
  20. melindav

    melindav ☰ reserved

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2016
    Messages:
    343
    Location:
    Vancouver, WA
    Also in Washington, and feel much more unsure about getting in before the sales tax exemption expires than missing out on Federal credit (although I did vote Maybe), but hoping for both ;) I will probably also have the wall charger installed this year. Ideally, I'd rather wait until the 2nd reveal so know for sure what the Model 3's charger will be (dual option?) to see if it make sense to go above 50A, but would like to get the credit this year too.
     

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