Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

[Xminus6]

Current owner. Near the factory. Ordered first 20 minutes of online orders. Will likely get a highly optioned model. I'm pretty sure I'll get the Fed rebate.

 

[Gilzo]

I put maybe.
About 15th in line fort Worth tx. 45k is my budget. Getting supercharger access (if it's not free), any dash upgrade (if it's not standard, which I'm assuming it won't be) and auto pilot if I have enough left over.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Is there any chance that the $7500 Fed credit could be canceled? Could the power brokers twist some arms and delete this incentive?
The above conversations focused on no changes to the IRS laws in the next two years. Any bets?

 

[182RG]

If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.

It would be a bit silly to cancel an order over a tax credit. $7,500 is approx. $140 a month amortized out. I would hope there are far more personal motivations to purchase.

 

[Bimbels]

Owner, 17th in line on the 31st on the east coast. I put maybe because it depends on sales between now and then and everything being on schedule.

 

[deonb]

Is there any chance that the $7500 Fed credit could be canceled? Could the power brokers twist some arms and delete this incentive?
The above conversations focused on no changes to the IRS laws in the next two years. Any bets?

A large-scale terror attack against U.S. mainland just before the election may put a domino rally into effect that can cause this to be cancelled.

In that case, Trump becomes president + GOP gets super-majorities in both houses = "Climate-myth" incentives repealed.

Barring that, Clinton becomes president + congress is deadlocked = Tax credit won't get extended, but won't get cancelled.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

A large-scale terror attack against U.S. mainland just before the election may put a domino rally into effect that can cause this to be cancelled.

In that case, Trump becomes president + GOP gets super-majorities in both houses = "Climate-myth" incentives repealed.

Barring that, Clinton becomes president + congress is deadlocked = Tax credit won't get extended, but won't get cancelled.

I was thinking more along the lines that GM, Oil n Gas and others that WANT Tesla to fail could force a modification to the IRS rule.
Just how solid is a rule that has been in place for several years?

 

[deonb]

I was thinking more along the lines that GM, Oil n Gas and others that WANT Tesla to fail could force a modification to the IRS rule.
Just how solid is a rule that has been in place for several years?

It's not just an IRS rule, it was an act of congress - the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, sec. 205. You may know it better as the "financial bailout".

As such, it would require an act of congress to reverse, and either a President that will sign it or a veto-proof majority.

It's easier for Congress to just let this one run out - unless they repeal it as part of a sweeping "Climate Denial" policy package - which could totally happen. Tax solar cell imports and give tax breaks to Oil companies instead etc.

 

[jsrawa]

I'm probably 170,000 at worst guess, I was distracted that week and completely missed the reveal and paid for it in position. That being said I plan a highly optioned vehicle and will probably be moving out west by then and take delivery there. Maybe I'm delusional but I'm hoping for at least half the credit during the phase out. I chose maybe.

 

[ucmndd]

In my head I'm somewhere between "probably" and "maybe".

3/31 northern CA order at 1pm. Non-owner. Would be willing to spend up to about $55k if it seemed likely I'll receive the credit at ordering time.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Will be highly optioning the M3, ordered online before the reveal, live in the mid-West, and don't own a Tesla.

50/50

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

It's not just an IRS rule, it was an act of congress - the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, sec. 205. You may know it better as the "financial bailout".

As such, it would require an act of congress to reverse, and either a President that will sign it or a veto-proof majority.

It's easier for Congress to just let this one run out - unless they repeal it as part of a sweeping "Climate Denial" policy package - which could totally happen. Tax solar cell imports and give tax breaks to Oil companies instead etc.

Thanks...I was thinking it was only an IRS policy, which could be influenced. An Act of Congress...thats another ballgame. You speak as if you have some serious understanding. I appreciate that wisdom.
Now I can go back to assuming delivery date for #200,00; delivery for mine; financing details (probably IRA taxable withdrawal that generates the liability that the incentive offsets)...and of course "options"

 

[Robbit]

I said probably. I was near the front of the line at a store on the east coast on 3/31, but I'm not a previous owner. I plan on going with a fully loaded Ludicrous model, minus performance wheels (Pennsylvania roads are garbage).

 

[zenmaster]

Online reservations received acknowledgements after a seemingly random number of days. Within that period, there were tens of thousands of reservations made. For online orders, I'm not sure what people are using to determine actual production queue positioning with a granularity of less than say 100K US orders. Also, what percentage of the tens of thousands of "late" Western reservations will be fulfilled before the tens of thousands of "early" Eastern?

 

[timk225]

I was third in line at my local mall, eastern time zone, on opening day. I'm not getting a highly optioned car, but I still expect to get the tax credit!

 

[Gorilapaws]

I'm not expecting it. I ordered online the morning after the unveil, I'm on the East coast, I probably won't be getting lots of expensive options, and I'm not a current Tesla owner. All of that makes me think I'll be lucky to get any credit at all. Having said that, it's possible that Hilary gets struck by lightning and Bernie Sanders gets elected along with a democratic supermajority which managed to push through a extension/revision of the plug-in tax credits.

 

[ZAKEEUS]

Not sure if I wanna vote probably or maybe.
Central time zone, ordered in store 30 minutes after opening, not a current owner, planning on spending 50-55k but if it takes a couple months into 2018 before I'm invited to configure, I might end up with a PxxD. It would be nice to get an anticipated delivery date based on the options we choose while we configure.

 

[HenryNDH]

In my head I'm somewhere between "probably" and "maybe".

3/31 northern CA order at 1pm. Non-owner. Would be willing to spend up to about $55k if it seemed likely I'll receive the credit at ordering time.

I'm with you on this - although I'm less optimistic with a "not likely" vote, which could improve to "probably" depending on a number of factors such as delivery dates, cumulative sales number at that point, priority, ...

I live in SJ, 2 orders entered around 1PM at the store, non-owner and expecting to spend similar amount. I still have a $5K deposit for the X which I may not go through with due to several concerns and my family's waning interest in it. Was told the deposit counts as "owner" but nothing in writing to date.

 

[HenryNDH]

I figure I might get a partial credit. I have some advantages (ordered first day, CA resident), but I doubt I will be buying a "P" model 3, and I will be skipping on the air suspension due to long term reliability concerns.

On the S and X, going with coil suspension pushed you back a ways.

Regarding the air suspension, I recently spent $3K on the 2 air bags and a compressor for a 10 year old Jag. Ouch! Air suspension is nice until the repair comes in. I was told typical lifetime is between 70K-80K miles, mine started showing symptom around 80K mark and finally quit at 100K (first time using air suspension so did not notice the symptoms). It was nice on a Jag because it gave a creamy but responsive ride (better than MB Airmatics). But I think the TM3 will not need it due to its sportiness nature.

 

[PaulJB]

To contribute another data point to the public opinion:

I reserved in store on 3/31 at 11am at the Denver store. ~150 in line out of about 1000. I am planning for AWD, winter package, and hopefully autopilot. Otherwise, base battery, trim, etc.

I'm hoping for a late late 2018 delivery with $3750 (1/2 credit) of the federal tax credit by the time deliveries of this level hit the mountain region. I still think this is a rather optimistic outlook, as it could easily be 2019 before I see my car.

I will definitely be doing what I can to get a 2018 delivery though, because CO's tax credit is $6K through 2018 regardless of # of cars delivered.