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Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

Do you think that you will get the full U.S. tax credit on your Model 3?

  • For sure

    Votes: 55 20.3%
  • Probably

    Votes: 94 34.7%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 58 21.4%
  • Not likely

    Votes: 38 14.0%
  • Nope

    Votes: 14 5.2%
  • I'm not in the U.S.

    Votes: 12 4.4%

  • Total voters
    271
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Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.

Fewer than 70 self-selected respondents voted "for sure" or "probably" when I voted.

Most reservation holders probably have no idea this forum even exists. About H alf the reservation holders from one family of which I am aware didn't know or care about the tax credit. And they live in California and signed up the first day or so.

I didn't even want a Model 3 but decided that if I did at some point in the next 2 years, the best odds I'd have of getting the full tax credit, not to mention delivery at all in 2018, would be if I dragged my... self out of bed at 0200 and drove to a showroom not likely to be overrun. So I drove an extra hour to Palm Desert and ended up 6th or 7th in line at 0600. Meanwhile, there were 80 in line at 0530 at Santa Monica and 40 at Burbank.

Was in and out of the store by about 1005. That evening, it was nice to see the car looked as nice as it did.

As a CA owner, I suspect, pending options chosen, that after employee cars are delivered, mine will fall somewhere within the first 25,000 made. Works for me. The full tax credit will easily apply thereto, presuming cars start delivery in late 2017.

But the choice is far from made. By early 2018, choices will include a new M3 or a CPO MS. Some of those won't be that far apart in out the door cost.
 
I will definitely be doing what I can to get a 2018 delivery though, because CO's tax credit is $6K through 2018 regardless of # of cars delivered.

I wonder if Tesla will finesse customer orders to make sure that they can take advantage of expiring state tax credits. Good for the customer. Good for Tesla if preempts cancelled orders. Hopefully, Tesla won't say something (in "legal" wording) like "We can get your M3 to you before your tax credit expires... if you add another $xxx in high-margin options".
 
To contribute another data point to the public opinion:

I reserved in store on 3/31 at 11am at the Denver store. ~150 in line out of about 1000. I am planning for AWD, winter package, and hopefully autopilot. Otherwise, base battery, trim, etc.

I'm hoping for a late late 2018 delivery with $3750 (1/2 credit) of the federal tax credit by the time deliveries of this level hit the mountain region. I still think this is a rather optimistic outlook, as it could easily be 2019 before I see my car.

I will definitely be doing what I can to get a 2018 delivery though, because CO's tax credit is $6K through 2018 regardless of # of cars delivered.

I thought Colorado's credit ran through 2021?
 
Tax credits don't even 'get to you' until the year after you take delivery anyway right? It's not like they don't just take it off the final price of the car and Tesla would 'deal with it'. At least that's how I figure. Not sure if any other brand does it differently. I do remember hearing rumblings of how other EV makers kinda screw around and take a 'portion' of the credit for themselves somehow.
 
I voted "maybe" to at least look at it the glass as half full :) Realistically, not the full credit but partial is possible. And by the time I get my model 3 in 2018 there may be a new tax credit to shoot for. Congress loves to give away our hard earned money to others less worthy. How about a tax free purchase? I would be happy with that!
 
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Reactions: jsanford and Lunarx
@biosci
The Federal credit is calculated on your tax return. So no. it's not deducted at the sell price. State/Province/Local rebates & credits vary. Some are like the US federal credit and you would get it when doing your taxes. Some are a reduction or elimination of the sales tax. Some a rebate sent out after the sale.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Lunarx
Of course no one really knows how the $7500 incentive will play out... but it sure will be fun to watch how it all goes down! Just look back at TESLA's history as a company. You could never predict all the ups, downs, twists and turns. It will be the same thing with this tax incentive thing. I sure wouldn't get rid of my reservation now just because I don't think my chances for getting the federal incentive are very good. Dozens of things could change in the next two years that would affect how it will all work out.
 
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If you go to page 6 of the document below:

Income 67 Innovative Motor Vehicle and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Credits


The tax credit is 6K, but you apply a reduction factor based on the year of your purchase. The factors are 1.0 for 2013-2018, then 0.75 for 2019, 0.5 in 2020, and 0.25 in 2021.

Looking at their worksheet, the max credit doesn't change, just the formula used to determine the credit. The M3 should qualify for credit pretty far over the max allowed even with the factors in 2019 and 2020. Only in 2021 would you expect it to possibly fall below. Of course, thats up to the government's interpretation of the information they gave us.
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: Lunarx and PaulJB
What exactly are you basing this statement on? How many orders were there in the first couple of hours after online orders started? How many of those orders were in the US? Saying they are practically guaranteed not to get it is at best really nothing more than a wild a$$ed guess on your part.

The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars (total, not just model 3). Considering they've already sold approximately 100,000 of the model S/X PLUS however many more sell over the next 2 years, PLUS the ~140,000 preorders made in the first few hours.... it seems fairly clear.

Sure, quite a few of those preorders were outside the U.S. but that is largely negated by the fact that they are planning to release the 3 in CA and work their way east. (As stated by EM himself)

Granted, it's a guess.... but it's an educated/well-informed one. Definitely not "wild a$$ed" as you say. This is all common knowledge, just gotta connect the dots. Sorry if you don't like it but honestly ***. #truthhurts #killthemessenger #crymeariver #tissuesforyourissues
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looking at their worksheet, the max credit doesn't change, just the formula used to determine the credit. The M3 should qualify for credit pretty far over the max allowed even with the factors in 2019 and 2020. Only in 2021 would you expect it to possibly fall below. Of course, thats up to the government's interpretation of the information they gave us.

Wow. You're totally right. I've looked at that worksheet multiple times and read it wrong every time. That's great! :D
 
Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.

If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.

^ this guy. Wrong.
 
The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars
No. Tesla can deliver 215'000 vehicles under the full program already without doing anything to their production line - just tweaking delivery order. The should be able to deliver 230'000 vehicles with full credit unless they're royally screw up the ramp-up.

Considering they've already sold approximately 100,000 of the model S/X
Tesla delivers roughly 45% of their vehicles outside of the U.S. Those wouldn't have used any part of the tax credit. If Tesla doubles the Model S's and X's in the US in the next 2 years, it would be about 120'000 to 140'000 delivered under this program. That would leave at least 50'000 open for Model 3's.


PLUS the ~140,000 preorders made in the first few hours
It's irrelevant whether there were 10 pre-orders or 10 million pre-orders. If even only 100 Model 3's are eligible for the tax credit, there would be 100 people who can quite accurately vote "For sure" or "Probably".
 
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No. Tesla can deliver 215'000 vehicles under the full program already without doing anything to their production line - just tweaking delivery order. The should be able to deliver 230'000 vehicles with full credit unless they're royally screw up the ramp-up.


Tesla delivers roughly 45% of their vehicles outside of the U.S. Those wouldn't have used any part of the tax credit. If Tesla doubles the Model S's and X's in the US in the next 2 years, it would be about 120'000 to 140'000 delivered under this program. That would leave at least 50'000 open for Model 3's.



It's irrelevant whether there were 10 pre-orders or 10 million pre-orders. If even only 100 Model 3's are eligible for the tax credit, there would be 100 people who can quite accurately vote "For sure" or "Probably".
Lies
 
Fewer than 70 self-selected respondents voted "for sure" or "probably" when I voted.

Most reservation holders probably have no idea this forum even exists. About H alf the reservation holders from one family of which I am aware didn't know or care about the tax credit. And they live in California and signed up the first day or so.

I didn't even want a Model 3 but decided that if I did at some point in the next 2 years, the best odds I'd have of getting the full tax credit, not to mention delivery at all in 2018, would be if I dragged my... self out of bed at 0200 and drove to a showroom not likely to be overrun. So I drove an extra hour to Palm Desert and ended up 6th or 7th in line at 0600. Meanwhile, there were 80 in line at 0530 at Santa Monica and 40 at Burbank.

Was in and out of the store by about 1005. That evening, it was nice to see the car looked as nice as it did.

As a CA owner, I suspect, pending options chosen, that after employee cars are delivered, mine will fall somewhere within the first 25,000 made. Works for me. The full tax credit will easily apply thereto, presuming cars start delivery in late 2017.

But the choice is far from made. By early 2018, choices will include a new M3 or a CPO MS. Some of those won't be that far apart in out the door cost.
But the choice is far from made. By early 2018, choices will include a new M3 or a CPO MS. Some of those won't be that far apart in out the door cost.
This is my line of thinking as well. When the time comes and I am asked to configure my Model 3 I will look at my options at that time and make a decision that is best for me.