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Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.
If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.
I will definitely be doing what I can to get a 2018 delivery though, because CO's tax credit is $6K through 2018 regardless of # of cars delivered.
To contribute another data point to the public opinion:
I reserved in store on 3/31 at 11am at the Denver store. ~150 in line out of about 1000. I am planning for AWD, winter package, and hopefully autopilot. Otherwise, base battery, trim, etc.
I'm hoping for a late late 2018 delivery with $3750 (1/2 credit) of the federal tax credit by the time deliveries of this level hit the mountain region. I still think this is a rather optimistic outlook, as it could easily be 2019 before I see my car.
I will definitely be doing what I can to get a 2018 delivery though, because CO's tax credit is $6K through 2018 regardless of # of cars delivered.
I thought Colorado's credit ran through 2021?
If you go to page 6 of the document below:
Income 67 Innovative Motor Vehicle and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Credits
The tax credit is 6K, but you apply a reduction factor based on the year of your purchase. The factors are 1.0 for 2013-2018, then 0.75 for 2019, 0.5 in 2020, and 0.25 in 2021.
@biosci
The Federal credit is calculated on your tax return. So no. it's not deducted at the sell price. State/Province/Local rebates & credits vary. Some are like the US federal credit and you would get it when doing your taxes. Some are a reduction or elimination of the sales tax. Some a rebate sent out after the sale.
What exactly are you basing this statement on? How many orders were there in the first couple of hours after online orders started? How many of those orders were in the US? Saying they are practically guaranteed not to get it is at best really nothing more than a wild a$$ed guess on your part.
Looking at their worksheet, the max credit doesn't change, just the formula used to determine the credit. The M3 should qualify for credit pretty far over the max allowed even with the factors in 2019 and 2020. Only in 2021 would you expect it to possibly fall below. Of course, thats up to the government's interpretation of the information they gave us.
Anyone voting "for sure" or "probably" hasn't been paying attention to the few actual facts about this floating around the forums. And anyone who waited more than a couple hours after online preorders started are Practically guaranteed not to get it.
If the results so far really represent future Model 3 buyers then there are going to be a lot of disappointed people out there. Wonder if this will lead to a lot of cancellations.
No. Tesla can deliver 215'000 vehicles under the full program already without doing anything to their production line - just tweaking delivery order. The should be able to deliver 230'000 vehicles with full credit unless they're royally screw up the ramp-up.The full tax credit goes away after tesla sells 200,000 production cars
Tesla delivers roughly 45% of their vehicles outside of the U.S. Those wouldn't have used any part of the tax credit. If Tesla doubles the Model S's and X's in the US in the next 2 years, it would be about 120'000 to 140'000 delivered under this program. That would leave at least 50'000 open for Model 3's.Considering they've already sold approximately 100,000 of the model S/X
It's irrelevant whether there were 10 pre-orders or 10 million pre-orders. If even only 100 Model 3's are eligible for the tax credit, there would be 100 people who can quite accurately vote "For sure" or "Probably".PLUS the ~140,000 preorders made in the first few hours
LiesNo. Tesla can deliver 215'000 vehicles under the full program already without doing anything to their production line - just tweaking delivery order. The should be able to deliver 230'000 vehicles with full credit unless they're royally screw up the ramp-up.
Tesla delivers roughly 45% of their vehicles outside of the U.S. Those wouldn't have used any part of the tax credit. If Tesla doubles the Model S's and X's in the US in the next 2 years, it would be about 120'000 to 140'000 delivered under this program. That would leave at least 50'000 open for Model 3's.
It's irrelevant whether there were 10 pre-orders or 10 million pre-orders. If even only 100 Model 3's are eligible for the tax credit, there would be 100 people who can quite accurately vote "For sure" or "Probably".
Fewer than 70 self-selected respondents voted "for sure" or "probably" when I voted.
Most reservation holders probably have no idea this forum even exists. About H alf the reservation holders from one family of which I am aware didn't know or care about the tax credit. And they live in California and signed up the first day or so.
I didn't even want a Model 3 but decided that if I did at some point in the next 2 years, the best odds I'd have of getting the full tax credit, not to mention delivery at all in 2018, would be if I dragged my... self out of bed at 0200 and drove to a showroom not likely to be overrun. So I drove an extra hour to Palm Desert and ended up 6th or 7th in line at 0600. Meanwhile, there were 80 in line at 0530 at Santa Monica and 40 at Burbank.
Was in and out of the store by about 1005. That evening, it was nice to see the car looked as nice as it did.
As a CA owner, I suspect, pending options chosen, that after employee cars are delivered, mine will fall somewhere within the first 25,000 made. Works for me. The full tax credit will easily apply thereto, presuming cars start delivery in late 2017.
But the choice is far from made. By early 2018, choices will include a new M3 or a CPO MS. Some of those won't be that far apart in out the door cost.
This is my line of thinking as well. When the time comes and I am asked to configure my Model 3 I will look at my options at that time and make a decision that is best for me.But the choice is far from made. By early 2018, choices will include a new M3 or a CPO MS. Some of those won't be that far apart in out the door cost.