Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?

[jsanford]

for those non-tesla owners, who hasn't experienced driving/charging/owning a tesla, would you still buy the model 3 even if there is no tax credit?

I'm a non-owner, and yes I would even without the federal tax credit. We've talked about getting an EV for a while and think the Model S is the only beautiful four-door out there.

As for "buyer profile" we have ICE motorcycles, so aren't looking to completely go petrol-free. But the ecological benefits are important to us. Costs are a consideration--I am a former hybrid owner, so have some inkling about what's going to cost more (insurance, tires). $35k is pretty mid-priced for new cars. We're going to install the charger this year and expect to keep the 3 ten years or longer.

 

[Sharkbait]

Costs are a consideration--I am a former hybrid owner, so have some inkling about what's going to cost more (insurance, tires). $35k is pretty mid-priced for new cars.

The incentives are an extra for me, and the annual insurance premium will be far more expensive than the tires. It will not be a $35K transaction for most, especially when you add extended range capability, which in my mind isn't an option. It's a necessity. After the incentives are gone or cutback after the maximum number of vehicles have been officially delivered, the car will get pretty pricey in my mind.

 

[tsla007]

Well, I would hope to get one since I stood in line and was done before noon, but I'm on the East Coast and a non Telsa owner at this point in time. It would just be nice to know when I put the order in as I could get more options and cover that money with income that is reserved for something else temporarily until I get the incentive bene money. I could order a lot more options for 7500. I hope everyone who stood in line on the 31st will get one. It just seems like a good gesture. I hope when I go to config the car online that it will say what # your order is and what tax incentive to expect.

 

[Sharkbait]

Well, I would hope to get one since I stood in line and was done before noon, but I'm on the East Coast and a non Telsa owner at this point in time. It would just be nice to know when I put the order in as I could get more options and cover that money with income that is reserved for something else temporarily until I get the incentive bene money.

I think most of those that were in line on the first day will probably qualify for the $7,500 tax credit, maybe even state incentives if they're offered where you live. It looks like you may also get delivery at the end of 2017 if Elon can meet his goal.

 

[Drivin]

It looks like you may also get delivery at the end of 2017 if Elon can meet his goal.

And given Elon's track record of meeting goals on time this is a rock sold guarantee.

 

[eisbock]

Oh boy. If we get 500k cars in 2018, there will be a lot of happy campers.

 

[Gilzo]

Okay I'm going to do some estimates here based on these numbers:


Assuming 55% of vehicles produced are bound for the US over this entire timeframe, 2017 will end with around 170k US vehicles delivered. With 99k vehicles scheduled to be delivered in the US in 2018, this means car 200k will be delivered in Q2 2018 without any attempts to maximize it. Given that Tesla will be attempting to maximize the credit usage and that I think their Model X numbers are overly ambitious, 200k could be delayed as far as Q4 2018. This means the full credit should end sometime between end of Q3 2018 and Q1 2019.

Model 3 deliveries will be biased towards later in the year in 2018 and I expect nearly all Model 3 deliveries for that year to be to the US, so this equates to about 40k-100k (yes, 100k) deliveries which should be able to take advantage of the full credit! Assuming around 10k pre-registrations (from Space X and Tesla employees + other eligible people) and 10-20k orders from current owners that ordered early enough to be prioritized, there is a high likelihood that everyone who ordered in store on the 31st will get full credit (estimated by me as around 20-30k). In the scenario in which 100k full-credit deliveries are made, nearly everyone who ordered before the event could get full credit.

I think these numbers are still a little conservative now that Tesla has said they are ramping up production. If they spin up the lines faster, there could be as much as a 50-70% increase in Model 3 deliveries in 2018, which could result in another 10-40k eligible deliveries.

All this being said, I think it's fair to be optimistic for the people who ordered as fast as possible.

Based on that chart, good analysis.

 

[geoffreak]

Based on that chart, good analysis.

Thanks! I'll need to re-run the numbers though because of the accelerated delivery schedule. My preliminary estimate is 200k being sold in Q4 2017 or Q1 2018. As other posters have mentioned, this means every order in the US so far will have some credit, with up to half getting the full credit.

 

[Twiglett]

changes may have changed for some of us......
interesting reply from EM
Elon Musk on Twitter
Sounds like they are attempting to deliver cars by late 2017 for those who waited in line to order before the reveal.
That would dramatically raise the likelihood of getting the full credit - and make sure we had an extra 7500 to spend on more options

 

[Haxster]

It's at least a year before the first production Model 3 will ship. A lot can happen in the meantime. And a lot that can change a reservation holders guess as to whether or not they will qualify for the full US rebate.

I thought it might be interesting to periodically record a snapshot of the poll and see how it changes over time and future events.

Keep in mind, that if you already voted, you can change your vote at any time.

So, for posterity, here's the first (28 May 2016) poll snapshot:

 

[melindav]

It's at least a year before the first production Model 3 will ship. A lot can happen in the meantime. And a lot that can change a reservation holders guess as to whether or not they will qualify for the full US rebate.

I thought it might be interesting to periodically record a snapshot of the poll and see how it changes over time and future events.

So, for posterity, here's the first (28 May 2016) poll snapshot:

View attachment 178479

that poll was started prior to the stepped up production schedule (Q1 call), so now people's answers may be more optimistic than they were when voting.