POLL: Will FSD Beta be released to everyone in North America this year and still be so at the end of the year?

[jjrandorin]

Cool! Good that Tesla understands what wide release means! Now they just have to get rid of the request.

My 2018 Model 3P got this update on new years eve (12/31/2022). I have never ( and actually would have never) "requested the beta" at all, and I definitely do not have 100 miles driven on FSD. I probably dont have 100 miles driven on FSD for the life of this vehicle, and it currently has around 39k miles.

I have only used NOA a few times over the years, and I only use TACC when in traffic on the freeway and it becomes slow enough to become stop and go. I decided early on that I actually really (really) enjoy driving this car, so I do things like take back roads on my commute, etc.

What I mean is, although my car has FSD, I never use it, and I can categorically say 1000000% I never (ever, ever) pushed the "beta button", was not interested in the slightest in driving with safety scores, and have the cabin camera data sharing feature set to "no", yet my car downloaded this update on 12/31 anyway.

So, sounds like no request is needed to me, since as I said, I absolutely did not make one, am 1000000% sure of that fact, and never would have made one.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My 2018 Model 3P got this update on new years eve (12/31/2022). I have never ( and actually would have never) "requested the beta" at all, and I definitely do not have 100 miles driven on FSD. I probably dont have 100 miles driven on FSD for the life of this vehicle, and it currently has around 39k miles.

I have only used NOA a few times over the years, and I only use TACC when in traffic on the freeway and it becomes slow enough to become stop and go.

What I mean is, although my car has FSD, I never use it, and I can categorically say 1000000% I never (ever, ever) pushed the "beta button", was not interested in the slightest in driving with safety scores, and have the cabin camera data sharing feature set to "no", yet my car downloaded this update on 12/31 anyway.

So, sounds like no request is needed to me, since as I said, I absolutely did not make one, am 1000000% sure of that fact, and never would have made one.

Yep, it seems well established that they removed the request requirement. Once this goes to everyone with required hardware then it will be in wide release as far as I am concerned (they also got rid of permanent strikeout too which was required). No request, no permanent strikeout, production branch release (or at least effectively so for FSD owners even if non-FSD owners are getting a different build - not sure about that but doesn’t matter).

However, the rollout did not go out to all vehicles by the end of the year, and of course some owners already on FSD beta had had their privileges removed due to strike out (and did not get software update…which apparently doesn’t reset anyway or maybe they are not rolling it to people already with FSDb - I don’t pay attention to the TeslaFi details).

So close, but not quite. Within a couple weeks, probably! The wisdom of crowds!

 

[EVNow]

No request, no permanent strikeout, production branch release (or at least effectively so for FSD owners even if non-FSD owners are getting a different build - not sure about that but doesn’t matter).

None of those are requirements for "release to everyone".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

None of those are requirements for "release to everyone".

If you don’t have access to it then it is not released to you (“still be so” clause).

In any case it wasn’t released to everyone, as TeslaFi shows. (If numbers of “from” a non-FSD release increase today, then that means the No’s definitely have it (don’t think anyone would debate that as it is not definitional). Since that means it wasn’t released to some valid users last year.)

Soon though, it seems, except for people with invalid hardware.

 

[EVNow]

If you don’t have access to it then it is not released to you (“still be so” clause).

Right. Other things don't matter.

Ofcourse I expect some edge cases where people don't have it. I mean Windows 11 is released to everyone - but I can't update to it, even though I have fairly new MoBo and CPU/GPU !

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Right. Other things don't matter.

Ofcourse I expect some edge cases where people don't have it. I mean Windows 11 is released to everyone - but I can't update to it, even though I have fairly new MoBo and CPU/GPU !

I don’t view hardware restrictions as indicating not wide release. It sucks for those people but they are very much a minority. It’ll be the rest of us soon enough though.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like the “No” is the correct answer!

Full Self-Driving (Beta) toggle is now in wide release as production vehicle software including MCU1

FSD Beta release notes used to be titled "Early Access Program | FSD Beta" but now that's gone: Additionally the strikes system for improper usage now results in a suspension of "approximately two weeks." The number of strikes allowed is five or three depending on availability of the interior...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[EVNow]

Looks like the “No” is the correct answer!

Full Self-Driving (Beta) toggle is now in wide release as production vehicle software including MCU1

FSD Beta release notes used to be titled "Early Access Program | FSD Beta" but now that's gone: Additionally the strikes system for improper usage now results in a suspension of "approximately two weeks." The number of strikes allowed is five or three depending on availability of the interior...

teslamotorsclub.com

How so ?

Your take directly contradicts ER.

 

[EVNow]

Zack said just now, a minority of revenue has not been released and reserved for future software updates, like I was saying.

 

[Daniel in SD]

How so ?

Your take directly contradicts ER.

“Nearly all”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618364176652718081

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Zack said just now, a minority of revenue has not been released and reserved for future software updates, like I was saying.

Ok. I guess they have already realized over $1B (~$320million in Q4), with $1B (the minority) remaining. 25% of outstanding was released in Q4. That is fine. Not that relevant here anyway if it is not all.

This all makes sense with what they said on the call. A huge amount of FSD revenue left! (Though a minority.) What’ll be really interesting is how much of that $1B ends up spilling to Q1 - guess we’ll know in three months.

How so ?

Your take directly contradicts ER.

The poll was “everyone [eligible] in NA.”

100% consistent. Not complicated! It’s not a “take.” There is only one correct answer here!

 

[EVNow]

Ofcourse I expect some edge cases where people don't have it. I mean Windows 11 is released to everyone - but I can't update to it, even though I have fairly new MoBo and CPU/GPU !

The poll was “everyone [eligible] in NA.”

There will always be edge cases ....

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There will always be edge cases ....

$1B in edge cases in NA (clear from the letter) alone! (Some will spill to Q1, some is features, some is pre 3/2019, etc.)

The accountants are not going to allow recognition for software not delivered (update available in car). They’re not crazy.

 

[EVNow]

$1B in edge cases in NA (clear from the letter) alone! (Some will spill to Q1, some is features, some is pre 3/2019, etc.)

Dude - why don't you understand that $1B is NOT related to FSDb wide release. I've already explained this multiple times.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Dude - why don't you understand that $1B is NOT related to FSDb wide release. I've already explained this multiple times.

$324 million of $1.324B was recognized due to FSD Beta release in Q4.

You are making a big leap by assuming that none of the remaining $1B will be attributed to release of FSD Beta to more customers than were counted in Q4. Guess we have to wait three more months and then read the tea leaves (it still won’t be clear of course).

“ This pertains to wide release of FSD Beta in the US and Canada during the period. Additionally, we expect to recognize nearly $1 billion of deferred revenue that remains for such customers over time as software updates are delivered.”