Elon’s comments suggest that he believes this is the case. I thought it would be interesting to get data on this now, for posterity. To get a sense of how believable people found this claim ahead of time.
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Poll: Will HW2 Autopilot be capable of full highway driving with no driver input by the end of 2018?
- Thread starter strangecosmos
- Start date
What's 'full'? If it is navigating an off/on ramp yes. If it is reacting to navigation trajectory likely. If it is navigating complex intersections it's a skeptical maybe from me, if it is handling construction zones and worldwide highways, it's a hard no way.
Nope... not even close. But a poll like this should be created in the model s forum
Derek Kessler
Active Member
Elon is very ambitious and offers very optimistic timelines. I find it best to double (or triple) his estimates.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
Are you smoking with Elon? If you think we will see anything even CLOSE to this you must be!! LOL
From 23 Jan 2017 7:00pm
Elon Musk on Twitter
For the record I am a HUGE Tesla / Elon fan and even pre-paid for FSD.....BUT Elon doesn't have a firm grasp of time as we know it and that we live in.
Cheburashka
Active Member
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
mtndrew1
Active Member
I voted yes, but I’d like to qualify my vote with “in a single lane with no construction below a specific speed.”
I think by the end of ‘18 we’ll be able to do hands-off single lane driving in one lane below say 50 MPH.
I think by the end of ‘18 we’ll be able to do hands-off single lane driving in one lane below say 50 MPH.
The question is: will Enhanced Autopilot have the capabilities that Elon says it will soon by the end of 2018?
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
He also said unlimited supercharging isn't coming back less than a week before it did. Elon is a lot of things, but being a paragon of truth, or in correctness in time estimations, is not among them.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Please don't forget the folks for Model X, Model 3 and eventually 2020 Roadster!
Tam
Well-Known Member
If this is a first time that I meet him, I might believe him but now that I've heard so many promises from him, I would take what he says with a grain of salt.
Requiring no input from human is not an easy goal.
This year, 2018, an Apple engineer who did not apply his human inputs and his Autopilot plowed into the concrete divider.
In order for me to project any improvement in this area, I need to see that Autopilot has solved the problem of inappropriate brakings (brakes when not needed as in phantom brakes and skipping brakes when really needed as in this Apple engineer accident.)
HankLloydRight
No Roads
You mean like 'hands-free' and 'no-nags' highway driving?
Several years, at least. I don't care what Elon says.... I believe EAP and FSD are going to be 'driver assist' functions for the foreseeable future. Every time there's another fatal AP accident, Tesla increases the nags and sensitivity to keep people "engaged" with driving. How is all of that going to just go away this year, next year, or even years after that?
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Did you bring enough for everybody?
Further, did you run Elon's comments through the anti-surreality-distortion-field widget prior to considering their practical veracity?
If not, do consider retaining a healthy quantity of whatever you've brought for the aforementioned everybody for yourself.
All of that aside, the E in EAP remains to this day completely silent relative to AP1's feature set. Finally that may change with, say, v9.2, but that's how it is today.
There's little doubt that MobilEye's approach or even, presumably, what Tesla has under wraps yet would manage some sort of FSD. However, what's available to us today, and what will be available to us on December 31, 2018 will in no way enable us to even get to the level of the staged December 2016 video (stop sign reaction (rather than mere recognition), for openers), let alone to the level at which a transcontinental venture would be possible.
I would like to think that in preparation for any transcontinental demonstration of FSD, we'd start to see Barry White chargers at least at strategically-placed locations.
If I had to guess, I'd think the journey would take place in late 2020. We'll have the Tesla SoC next year and then good things will finally happen hopefully without the 2nd refresh (beyond the interior refresh that comes first) as a requirement as well.
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
If you are being serious then you must either be
1: Super gullible
Or
2: A super newbie here
Elon time, affectionately refereed to as EST, is in no sense of any reality. Soon to Elon could mean years or decades and 3 months maybe 6 months definitely ha no contextual meaning in reality at all.
Elon didn’t explicitly say whether it would be hands-free, but I assume it will be hands-on, just like Enhanced Autopilot is currently.
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