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poll: will you upgrade to FSD package before price increase?

Will you upgrade to FSD package (in model 3 with AP only) before price increase on August 16th?


  • Total voters
    90
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My personal two cents on this:

I think it is possible he lies on purpose for what he perceives to be the benefit of Tesla or himself.

The optimism angle seems less and less likely because it seems to assume massive incapability to learn and/or lack of intelligence which seems unlikely.

There may well be something that was planned to happen on August 16th again but by now he really should know better because some internal date or deadline hardly ever translates into a mass release — suggesting it can therefore end up being misleading to the point of being a lie.
 
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There may well be something that was planned to happen on August 16th again but by now he really should know better because some internal date or deadline hardly ever translates into a mass release — suggesting it can therefore end up being misleading to the point of being a lie.
You have to purposely ignore the caveats in the email thread to claim this. This makes your own motivation suspect, IMO.
 
You have to purposely ignore the caveats in the email thread to claim this. This makes your own motivation suspect, IMO.

Look, if this was just a single incident I would agree reading anything more into it would be excessive. But this is Elon we are talking about. This is Enhanced Summon for which he has posted wrong Twitter timelines many times over the past 9+ months, preceded by years worth of EAP and FSD promises and timelines including the infamous 3 months maybe to 6 six months definitely...

This is what has influenced my opinion of what likely motivators drive him. Nothing more. I think my thinking is at least understandable, even to those who might disagree.

Unfortunately I can not discount the possibility that he couid lie/mislead intentionally for short-term benefit.
 
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Do you truly believe 9 months back he thought it would take more than a year to finish enh summon - but he decided to lie and tweeted it would take just weeks ?

I’m not sure that matters. What matters is did he know or should he have known his tweet or announcement would mislead? When his first ”6 weeks” for Enhanced Summon was posted I do think it is likely or possible he knew no public mass release would be out in 6 weeks but he said it anyway for PR. It seems like a plausible theory this is his MO for PR reasons.
 
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Do you truly believe 9 months back he thought it would take more than a year to finish enh summon - but he decided to lie and tweeted it would take just weeks ?

Are you saying that the Tesla CEO is so unintelligent as to underestimate availability of this feature by 9 months yet continues to tweet that it’s around the corner?

I mean, there really isn’t a flattering explanation for the tweet 9 months or so ago.
 
I’m not sure that matters.
It absolutely matters. You don't want to talk about it because it undermines your short theory you have given below.

Why do I call it short theory - because that is exactly what shorts say. Their theory is that Tesla is built on lies. They question everything - from sales figures to financial statements to every tweet. They even think SpaceX is all fraudulent. I guess some of them are flat earthers too.

What matters is did he know or should he have known his tweet or announcement would mislead? When his first ”6 weeks” for Enhances Summor was posted I do think it is likely or possible he knew no public mass release would be out in 6 weeks but he said it anyway for PR. It seems like a plausible theory this is his MO for PR reasons.

Any proof for the above ? Your speculation, BTW, is not "proof".
 
It absolutely matters. You don't want to talk about it because it undermines your short theory you have given below.

I don’t think it matters to my point.

When, around 9 months ago, Elon said Enhanced Summon would be done in 6 weeks... did he know it would mislead people into thinking it would be out sooner than it would be? 9 months is irrelevant. Did he know it would not be in mass release in 6 weeks time? Or similar at any of the later timelines or dates he has given and that have come and gone?

I think it is possible he knew and still said it for PR effect — and that similar things have happened in Tesla’s history (especially the Autopilot 2+ history) several times before.

Why do I call it short theory - because that is exactly what shorts say. Their theory is that Tesla is built on lies. They question everything - from sales figures to financial statements to every tweet. They even think SpaceX is all fraudulent. I guess some of them are flat earthers too.

I don’t care about any of that since I don’t own or play with Tesla stock, never have. Nor is my point that Tesla is built on lies, I don’t think it is. My point is very specific: I find it possible and plausible, at least as a possibility, that Tesla’s CEO knowingly uses misleading or even wrong timelines for PR benefit.
 
Are you saying that the Tesla CEO is so unintelligent as to underestimate availability of this feature by 9 months yet continues to tweet that it’s around the corner?

I mean, there really isn’t a flattering explanation for the tweet 9 months or so ago.
No there isn't - just accept the fact that he badly misjudged this. Possible the team told him it would be easy and he just went with it.
 
I don’t think it matters to my point.
It matters because according to you "there is a history of lies". So, I'm asking when he tweeted 9 months back that the summon would be ready in 6 weeks, did he know it would actually take 9 months ? Simple question - because you are arguing your case by giving this as an example of a lie.

Occam's razor dictates that he / his team misjudged the difficulty of summon. That's why he keeps talking about how difficult parking lots are.

Moreover, enh summon has come to EAP couple of times. So they had every plan of releasing to wider fleet, but plan got shelved because of feedback.

BTW, in Q4 '18, they were selling all the cars they could make, making a ton of money - had no inkling about the Q1 problems. So, absolutely no need to hype something to sell more cars (and its very very unlikely enh summon would sell more cars).

All this shows EM meant exactly what he said - in terms of enh summon - and could not deliver on what he thought he would be able to. Much simpler explanation than your tin foil hat conspiracy theories.
 
@EVNow

I don’t think I said there is a history of lies (though it is possible there is, we don’t know). I said — and anyway I intended to say — there is a history of announced and missed deadlines with Elon. So with me it really comes down to this:

Elon is obviously a smart guy.

Is it believable...? Or can I exclude the possibility that such a smart guy would know, when making the announcements, that his announcement timelines are not true?

This having gone year after year and Elon obviously being a smart guy, I can not exclude the possibility that he knew. And if he knew, then that would amount to a lie or lies in my view.
 
It matters because according to you "there is a history of lies". So, I'm asking when he tweeted 9 months back that the summon would be ready in 6 weeks, did he know it would actually take 9 months ? Simple question - because you are arguing your case by giving this as an example of a lie.

Occam's razor dictates that he / his team misjudged the difficulty of summon. That's why he keeps talking about how difficult parking lots are.

Moreover, enh summon has come to EAP couple of times. So they had every plan of releasing to wider fleet, but plan got shelved because of feedback.

BTW, in Q4 '18, they were selling all the cars they could make, making a ton of money - had no inkling about the Q1 problems. So, absolutely no need to hype something to sell more cars (and its very very unlikely enh summon would sell more cars).

All this shows EM meant exactly what he said - in terms of enh summon - and could not deliver on what he thought he would be able to. Much simpler explanation than your tin foil hat conspiracy theories.

I think that is the issue most of us that hold Elon/Tesla accountable for words has a real problem. Everyone talks about how "smart" Elon is and that his history of actually programming and creating / overseeing tough tasks would have taught him a few tings. I work in a software service industry and I learned looooong ago not to make forward looking promises / statements that I knew wouldn't / couldn't be met. Either you believe Elon is very naive / not close to the problem at hand / or dumbstruck / or some other excuse as to why this behavior has continued. What "should" stop is the CEO of a company making public statements, via Twitter / town hall meetings / public forums / share holder meeting / etc etc etc, that are more likely to not be true than they are likely to happen in a given timeframe.

I think some of you think some of us are very tough on Elon / Tesla and....rightfully so....we are. Even "soon" would be much better than promising specific dates and missing them by an order magnitude (to use one of Elon's favorite sayings).

I own quite as bit of Tesla stock, currently own 2 fully loaded Tesla's S&X, and have owned 4 fully loaded Teslas total. I do believe they are the best cars on the market available today. I do believe Tesla will make it as a automobile manufacturer, I do believe Elon is one of the boldest and intelligent people walking the earth today....He just needs a handler to quail his spoken / typed words of misplaced excitement.
 
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@EVNow

I don’t think I said there is a history of lies (though it is possible there is, we don’t know). I said — and anyway I intended to say — there is a history of announced and missed deadlines with Elon. So with me it really comes down to this:

Elon is obviously a smart guy.

Is it believable...? Or can I exclude the possibility that such a smart guy would know, when making the announcements, that his announcement timelines are not true?

This having gone year after year and Elon obviously being a smart guy, I can not exclude the possibility that he knew. And if he knew, then that would amount to a lie or lies in my view.
That’s the definition of a Charlatan.
 
I think that is the issue most of us that hold Elon/Tesla accountable for words has a real problem. Everyone talks about how "smart" Elon is and that his history of actually programming and creating / overseeing tough tasks would have taught him a few tings. I work in a software service industry and I learned looooong ago not to make forward looking promises / statements that I knew wouldn't / couldn't be met. Either you believe Elon is very naive / not close to the problem at hand / or dumbstruck / or some other excuse as to why this behavior has continued.
That’s the definition of a Charlatan.
Elon critics always miss the wood for the trees.

Any sane person with experience would have known - should have known that
- It is impossible to start a new successful auto industry in US, something that hasn't been done since 1941
- It is impossible to produce an EV that will sell as many as a Camry in California within a year of mass production
- It is impossible to let people exchange money without going through traditional banks
- It is impossible to land a rocket in reverse !
- It is impossible to build a new auto factory within a year
- After selling just 60k cars in Q1, it is impossible to sell 90k+ in Q2
- It is impossible to ....
- It is impossible to ...

Given all that Musk has achieved, the critics look so silly talking about how he should have known in one month he can't possibly release summon.
 
Elon critics always miss the wood for the trees.

Any sane person with experience would have known - should have known that
- It is impossible to start a new successful auto industry in US, something that hasn't been done since 1941
- It is impossible to produce an EV that will sell as many as a Camry in California within a year of mass production
- It is impossible to let people exchange money without going through traditional banks
- It is impossible to land a rocket in reverse !
- It is impossible to build a new auto factory within a year
- After selling just 60k cars in Q1, it is impossible to sell 90k+ in Q2
- It is impossible to ....
- It is impossible to ...

Given all that Musk has achieved, the critics look so silly talking about how he should have known in one month he can't possibly release summon.

You obviously didn't read my post that you quoted. In any case....have another gulp...apparently it runs deep in your veins
 
Elon critics always miss the wood for the trees.

Any sane person with experience would have known - should have known that
- It is impossible to start a new successful auto industry in US, something that hasn't been done since 1941
- It is impossible to produce an EV that will sell as many as a Camry in California within a year of mass production
- It is impossible to let people exchange money without going through traditional banks
- It is impossible to land a rocket in reverse !
- It is impossible to build a new auto factory within a year
- After selling just 60k cars in Q1, it is impossible to sell 90k+ in Q2
- It is impossible to ....
- It is impossible to ...

Given all that Musk has achieved, the critics look so silly talking about how he should have known in one month he can't possibly release summon.

@EVNow - While I don't generally like to cross-post, what's your responsible unbiased response to this Musk/Tesla behavior? (see posts 479, 482 and 484) Do you have one? - It's a serious question... Looking for a serious answer (not fanbois response)

Enhance summon coming next week!

EDIT: In all seriousness, how can you (or anyone) defend this Tesla order site behavior? - At best, misleading new customers on FSD during the ordering process. Why wouldn't they change this order page, given FSD/Enhanced Summon delays? I predict, some day soon, there will be a "misrepresentation" lawsuit filed - similar to the EAP one filed year's ago. And like that one, Tesla will not be the winner. Note: And you are not a honest winner if you "settle out of court". I say "Honest winner" because they could still win financially - e.g., the lawsuit payout being less than all the money taken in by the false advertising...
 
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