gearchruncher
Well-Known Member
During a year of driving, I'll probably make a "Chuck" left (that kind of risky unprotected left) 5-7 times.
Ok? I have two each way on my way to work every day without lights at all, and two more with traffic lights. Somehow I've done them way more than 70 times in my life without an issue.
But this is irrelevant. You can't say something is L3+ as long as it isn't used very often. This isn't the lumbar system in a seat.
Unprotected left turns are a needed function to navigate many places. Your system either does them reliably enough to be at an L3 level, or you can't use them. Tesla is not going to be able to say "we have L3+, as long as we can navigate you there without a unprotected left!". People already knock competitors for preferring right turns. And it's not some sort of credit system- Unprotected lefts cause a collision every 1:10000 events, so you're only allowed to have your Tesla do it 7 times a year. L3+ will be rated at a per mile or per hour basis across the whole fleet- and it will not surprise me to hear the average car does an unprotected left every 10-100 miles (lots of entrances to residential areas look like Chuck's videos). As just one possible failure in those 10-100 miles, it needs to be damn reliable if you want 1:1B mile failure rates, which is where I got my 1:100M-1:1B guestimate from.
This 70%+ issue is a HUGE issue for L2 as well. Let's say it gets to 99% like AP is today. Yeah, you're supposed to pay attention, but let me just look at my phone for a second, it's worked every time before, when it decides to make an unprotected left. 1:100 chance of major accident isn't too bad, right?
Elon claims current AP is already better than humans (99.99999%), yet we have a few people die a year on AP as they are lulled into complacency. Can you imagine how bad it would be if AP was 99%?
Last edited: