Pondering 100kWh and 120kWh batteries

[Haxster]

So, if these batteries become available for the S/X, here are some questions:

How much will they cost?
Can they be retrofitted?
Are they improved chemistry/construction or just more volume?
How much more will they weigh?
How much thicker might they be?
How much will they increase range?
Will their likely lower internal resistance allow for better performance?

Prognosticating minds want to speculate.

 

[Todd Burch]

100 kWh battery coming within the next few months is a high probability. A 120 kWh battery, IMHO, is still maybe 2 years off and a bit too optimistic.

 

[Saghost]

As I'm sure you've realized, no one here knows anything about this yet.

My bet is that when new packs show up it'll be improved cell chemistry, which means the weight/thickness won't change, and there is no physical or electrical barrier to upgrading. (Whether Tesla deems allowing upgrades to be in their best interests is another matter altogether, though I think they'll eventually change their minds and allow it - eventually.)

If the car is the same weight, an S100D will presumably go 11% further than an S90D, and an S120D 30% - with the new update Tesla is showing 294 EPA miles for a 90D, so that'd be ~327 and ~392 miles respectively (though I'd assume it'll be a while before chemistry improvements allow a 120 kWh battery of similar size/weight.)

 

[CHG-ON]

+1 to @Saghost. It'll be through chemistry/density. Can't be any bigger. There just ain't no mo' room!

 

[Haxster]

It'll be through chemistry/density. Can't be any bigger. There just ain't no mo' room!

I'm not suggesting that this will happen, but... A slightly thicker battery pack might be accommodated by an increased minimum ride height.

 

[Skotty]

If the come up with a new cell size for the Gigafactory, I'm sure that would change some things. But the physical size of the whole unit would most likely stay the same.

I highly doubt they will allow upgrades. Might not even be possible (or at least, not as easy as just a pack swap); depends on if the higher capacity would require revised power equipment in other places within the car.

If they did allow pack upgrades, would they and should they change the badging?

 

[Haxster]

should they change the badging?

Humm, "change the badging"...So, after 6 years and 87,000 miles of hard driving, I get this P80D badge in the mail from Tesla. Included with it are instructions on how to remove my P90D badge and replace it with the new one.

Or I take my old S in for routine service and when I get the car back, it has a P80D badge on it. Not cool.

On the other hand, I'd be good with your "up-badging" suggestion for an upgraded battery pack.

 

[KJD]

I will go out on a limb here and predict that the 100kWh battery is at least into 2017 before we see it.

 

[CHG-ON]

Upgrades would be awesome for we owners. But that hurts their ability to resell a new car to us. So, if I were running the place, which of course, I am not, I would probably say no due to losing full pop sales.

Greedy capitalist that I am...

 

[valkeriefire]

My guess is Tesla won't do anything for about 6 months. They may have the tech to introduce a 100kwh today, but it isn't in their interest to do so. They need something to make headlines every so often between now and the full Model 3 release. They can't blow their wad all at once and then have nothing new to generate enthusiasm for the next 18 months. They have to spread it out. This generates more revenue and spreads the R&D out over time.

Basically they will do what Intel and Nvidia have been doing for the last 6 years or so (develop a new tech, but release it incrementally so that they can maximize their profit with the least amount of R&D). Tesla (like Nvidia and Intel) has no real competitors, until they do, there is no race to release bigger batteries.

I'm betting rather heavily on this since I ordered my 90D on Saturday.

 

[shokunin]

For the 100KW and up the Gigafactory needs to be up and running. JB mentioned the increases would come from both chemistry and increase from the 18650 cell size to a slightly taller and slightly wider 20750 or something around there. I doubt they would put in tooling into the Gigafactory to manufacture the current 18650's that panasonic is making for them. They now have the scale to make any size, density, and chemistry they want.

 

[brianman]

For the 100KW and up the Gigafactory needs to be up and running....

Last I heard ("Model 3 Unveil"), the Gigafactory is up and running.

 

[Mike K]

I will go out on a limb here and predict that the 100kWh battery is at least into 2017 before we see it.

It's already in the firmware in the form of a finished logo for use on the dash. Now I'm not saying that everything they put in the firmware is guaranteed to be introduced in a matter of weeks but 2 years seems highly unlikely. We'll likely see this in the next few months, even more likely considering the 75kwh battery on the X will likely find it's way to the S and that will close the gap a little too much between packs. More people are going to tick the 75kwh box. The 100kwh battery will restore balance there.

 

[mgboyes]

It's already in the firmware in the form of a finished logo for use on the dash. Now I'm not saying that everything they put in the firmware is guaranteed to be introduced in a matter of weeks but 2 years seems highly unlikely. We'll likely see this in the next few months, even more likely considering the 75kwh battery on the X will likely find it's way to the S and that will close the gap a little too much between packs. More people are going to tick the 75kwh box. The 100kwh battery will restore balance there.

Last time I checked 2017 was only 8.5 months away.

Personally I agree that we won't see a 100kWh pack this year.

 

[doctorwho]

Upgrades would be awesome for we owners. But that hurts their ability to resell a new car to us. So, if I were running the place, which of course, I am not, I would probably say no due to losing full pop sales.

Greedy capitalist that I am...

OTOH, I'll be retired by the time I'm looking at a battery replacement and not in a position to buy a new car. I may be in a position to buy a new battery though so perhaps a sale gained

 

[shokunin]

Last I heard ("Model 3 Unveil"), the Gigafactory is up and running.

I know they are assembling power packs and power walls in the gigafactory, I wasn't aware that they have started producing their own cells yet.

 

[pr0teu5]

A 120 kWh battery is likely a long way off and will be insane. Should be at about 400 miles of range which is a lot. Within a decade we might see Tesla's with range that's competitive with many of the longest range diesel vehicles.

 

[CHG-ON]

OTOH, I'll be retired by the time I'm looking at a battery replacement and not in a position to buy a new car. I may be in a position to buy a new battery though so perhaps a sale gained

I expect I'll be in the same boat, actually. So I too would be a customer. But I'm still a greedy capitalist pig!

Not really.