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Pondering 100kWh and 120kWh batteries

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Haxster, Apr 13, 2016.

  1. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    So, if these batteries become available for the S/X, here are some questions:

    How much will they cost?
    Can they be retrofitted?
    Are they improved chemistry/construction or just more volume?
    How much more will they weigh?
    How much thicker might they be?
    How much will they increase range?
    Will their likely lower internal resistance allow for better performance?

    Prognosticating minds want to speculate.
     
  2. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    100 kWh battery coming within the next few months is a high probability. A 120 kWh battery, IMHO, is still maybe 2 years off and a bit too optimistic.
     
  3. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    As I'm sure you've realized, no one here knows anything about this yet. :)

    My bet is that when new packs show up it'll be improved cell chemistry, which means the weight/thickness won't change, and there is no physical or electrical barrier to upgrading. (Whether Tesla deems allowing upgrades to be in their best interests is another matter altogether, though I think they'll eventually change their minds and allow it - eventually.)

    If the car is the same weight, an S100D will presumably go 11% further than an S90D, and an S120D 30% - with the new update Tesla is showing 294 EPA miles for a 90D, so that'd be ~327 and ~392 miles respectively (though I'd assume it'll be a while before chemistry improvements allow a 120 kWh battery of similar size/weight.)
     
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  4. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    +1 to @Saghost. It'll be through chemistry/density. Can't be any bigger. There just ain't no mo' room!
     
  5. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    I'm not suggesting that this will happen, but... A slightly thicker battery pack might be accommodated by an increased minimum ride height.
     
  6. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    If the come up with a new cell size for the Gigafactory, I'm sure that would change some things. But the physical size of the whole unit would most likely stay the same.

    I highly doubt they will allow upgrades. Might not even be possible (or at least, not as easy as just a pack swap); depends on if the higher capacity would require revised power equipment in other places within the car.

    If they did allow pack upgrades, would they and should they change the badging?
     
  7. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    Humm, "change the badging"...So, after 6 years and 87,000 miles of hard driving, I get this P80D badge in the mail from Tesla. Included with it are instructions on how to remove my P90D badge and replace it with the new one.

    Or I take my old S in for routine service and when I get the car back, it has a P80D badge on it. Not cool.

    On the other hand, I'd be good with your "up-badging" suggestion for an upgraded battery pack.
     
  8. KJD

    KJD Member

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    I will go out on a limb here and predict that the 100kWh battery is at least into 2017 before we see it.
     
  9. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    Upgrades would be awesome for we owners. But that hurts their ability to resell a new car to us. So, if I were running the place, which of course, I am not, I would probably say no due to losing full pop sales.

    Greedy capitalist that I am...
     
  10. valkeriefire

    valkeriefire Member

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    My guess is Tesla won't do anything for about 6 months. They may have the tech to introduce a 100kwh today, but it isn't in their interest to do so. They need something to make headlines every so often between now and the full Model 3 release. They can't blow their wad all at once and then have nothing new to generate enthusiasm for the next 18 months. They have to spread it out. This generates more revenue and spreads the R&D out over time.

    Basically they will do what Intel and Nvidia have been doing for the last 6 years or so (develop a new tech, but release it incrementally so that they can maximize their profit with the least amount of R&D). Tesla (like Nvidia and Intel) has no real competitors, until they do, there is no race to release bigger batteries.

    I'm betting rather heavily on this since I ordered my 90D on Saturday.
     
  11. shokunin

    shokunin P85 & S40

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    For the 100KW and up the Gigafactory needs to be up and running. JB mentioned the increases would come from both chemistry and increase from the 18650 cell size to a slightly taller and slightly wider 20750 or something around there. I doubt they would put in tooling into the Gigafactory to manufacture the current 18650's that panasonic is making for them. They now have the scale to make any size, density, and chemistry they want.
     
  12. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Last I heard ("Model 3 Unveil"), the Gigafactory is up and running.
     
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  13. Mike K

    Mike K Member

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    It's already in the firmware in the form of a finished logo for use on the dash. Now I'm not saying that everything they put in the firmware is guaranteed to be introduced in a matter of weeks but 2 years seems highly unlikely. We'll likely see this in the next few months, even more likely considering the 75kwh battery on the X will likely find it's way to the S and that will close the gap a little too much between packs. More people are going to tick the 75kwh box. The 100kwh battery will restore balance there.
     
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  14. mgboyes

    mgboyes Member

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    Last time I checked 2017 was only 8.5 months away.

    Personally I agree that we won't see a 100kWh pack this year.
     
  15. doctorwho

    doctorwho Member

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    OTOH, I'll be retired by the time I'm looking at a battery replacement and not in a position to buy a new car. I may be in a position to buy a new battery though so perhaps a sale gained:)
     
  16. shokunin

    shokunin P85 & S40

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    I know they are assembling power packs and power walls in the gigafactory, I wasn't aware that they have started producing their own cells yet.
     
  17. pr0teu5

    pr0teu5 Member

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    A 120 kWh battery is likely a long way off and will be insane. Should be at about 400 miles of range which is a lot. Within a decade we might see Tesla's with range that's competitive with many of the longest range diesel vehicles.
     
  18. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    I expect I'll be in the same boat, actually. So I too would be a customer. But I'm still a greedy capitalist pig!

    Not really.
     

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