Poor Man's Model S

[Alexander]

Alexander, how do you drive 200 miles in a day mostly in very slow traffic? Just drive time would be far more than a normal work day without any actual meetings.

Don't take it to seriously, I was being dramatic . I don't spend all of my time in bad traffic, but I do spend a lot of time in the car and often get caught 1-10Mph traffic. But thats not everyday.

If most of the places you visit have charging stations than a Chevy Volt might be a good candidate - the entire 36 month lease on a Volt is about half what you intend to put as just a down payment on the Tesla.

After posting about having places to charge, I realized that most of the time I'm not there long enough to get any real serious charging done. A Volt was/is the next best option. But I don't want a Volt for other reason; like most GM products its cheaply built and probably won't hold up over 200K miles. The S's are untested, but I believe Tesla is doing a better job of quality control then GM. That and Tesla has far less parts to worry about then GM has to worry about with their Volt. Also maintaing a hybrid is not something I want to do anymore (especially not a GM hybrid). Call it pure preference, but there's so much more that can break in a hybrid's power train that to me there just out of the question. I've had a hybrid for 10 years, and its been great. Its gotten me great millage, but over the years its been in the shop so many times for repairs/recalls, that I don't know why I still have it. In 2008 someone offered me $17,500 for it, and looking back I probably should of taken his offer. This might be a whole other discussion, but I think Hybrids are the first real disposable cars. Keeping one after 5 years, or after the warranty expires doesn't make a whole lot of sense (to me anyway). You lose most, if not all of your gas savings the second you have to make a costly repair to the EV power train. Honda has taken care of me over the years, even out of warranty, but if it wasn't for that it would of cost me far more to of had my hybrid then it would of if I had owned a normal car. Again, this is a whole other discussion, but im done with hybrids for now.

By choosing a car that currently has a lease program, you would be able to get the benefit of the full $7500 credit without needing to have a $7500 tax liability. I understand you will blow through the lease mileage limit, but you can set up the lease where you just buy the car at the end so it's the same as owning the car and you don't have to worry about mileage.

That's actually a VERY good idea. I'm going to look into that. I asked for a deferment on finalizing my order so I could make sure I had all my ducks in a row before before I commited fully. I'll check into lease options to see if I can get the whole credit and lower my payment. Thank you!!

[Used Leafs are selling on Ebay for $20k. Enginer makes a extra battery that increases range 60 miles for $7500. Or you could buy 2 Leafs and leave one at the end of your commute. /QUOTE]

Even with an extra 60 miles, that wouldn't be enough range for my worst case driving scenario. A worst case scenario that plays out at least once or twice a week. Again, I would buy something else in the EV market if there was something that had 200 to 250 real world range, and was cheaper. But it just doesn't exist yet. The S is just in my range of affordability and it makes sense (on paper anyway).

I'm not trying to be discouraging, just want to make sure the decision is a rational one and not one of those situations where someone wants something so they artificially make the math work in their favor.

There are some variables in my equation that could make this whole thing blow up in my face. Maintenance is a big question mark for me, and that maintenance could add up to this car costing much more then what I'm currently paying now for my two cars. But let's be clear, I want this car. There is good rational behind getting it, but there's also the cool factor that's driving a lot of my motivation. I do have to be careful about the numbers and be in partial. At one point I made the math work so I could get a performance edition, lol. But I was fooling myself and I new it. I think what I've calculated now is real and will work (assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my calculations). My goal is for the car to save me money over - what I think will be - a lifetime of 8 years. And it will do that in 4 years (assuming low maintenance), which is just half the time.

I could get a Volt, but Hybrid's have their own set of problems that have to be taken into consideration. I could also get a Leaf, but even with that extra range it's still not enough. The real answer is that I should wait another 3 or 4 years for the EV market to mature. But if I can get into one of these cars right now, why wait?

 

[jcstp]

Just wondering

you do 200 miles a day, so 100 miles one way?

If you had a chargingstation at your destination, you could buy a rav4 ev, or S 40kw
They both have over 100 miles range
Both use the same drivetrain

 

[Alexander]

Just wondering

you do 200 miles a day, so 100 miles one way?

If you had a chargingstation at your destination, you could buy a rav4 ev, or S 40kw
They both have over 100 miles range
Both use the same drivetrain

My commute is different every day. I go to a lot of the same locations, but the order I go to them, the amount of time I spend there, and the distances all change each day. So 200 miles is my worst case mileage that plays out once or twice a week. I have more accurate numbers, but its easier to say 200 miles a day.

 

[jerry33]

Also maintaing a hybrid is not something I want to do anymore (especially not a GM hybrid). Call it pure preference, but there's so much more that can break in a hybrid's power train that to me there just out of the question.

That's true for the Honda hybrids because they are basically just replacing the flywheel with a motor so you have all the conventional car parts plus the electric parts. It's not true for the Prius. The Prius has removed many of the parts of a conventional car and replaced them with more reliable electronics and has simplified others. For instance the Prius doesn't have: an alternator, a starter motor, a serpentine belt (2010+ only), a clutch or fluid coupling. In addition the automatic transmission with it's hundreds of parts has been replaced by a simple planetary gear system similar to a differential.

Besides the 2004, I also have a 2001 that Denise drives. Both have been trouble-free.

The Volt seems overly complex to me as well.

Naturally, the Tesla has far fewer parts than either which is one of the reason's I'm going for it..

 

[DouglasR]

Do you want to look at my spreadsheet? It would be nice to get a second pair of eyes on it. What I did was calculate the total cost of ownership, which includes the purchase cost of both my cars at $25,819.81.

I'd be happy to take a look at your spreadsheet. You could post it, or send me a PM with your email address and I'll send you mine.

I wonder, however: if the comparison is between purchasing a Model S and repurchasing your existing cars for $25,819, is that second option really the right one to use? As someone said earlier, wouldn't the appropriate comparison be the Model S v. some other car you are thinking about buying, or even keeping your existing cars? I don't understand why you used the purchase cost of your existing cars as the alternative to the Model S.

When I reserved my Model S, I did a fairly quick calculation, and any way I looked at it, my least expensive choice was to keep my existing car running (I don't drive nearly as many miles as you do). There was simply no way that I could make up for the huge upfront cost of any brand of new car by saving on gas and maintenance. For me, the Model S was not a good economic choice. I bought it because I wanted it, and I could afford it.

By the way, I reread your first post and noticed that you are self employed. If you use the car for business, be sure to take the tax consequences into account. If you purchase the car, you would get a huge depreciation deduction, which would reduce the business income you show on Schedule C. If you don't currently make enough from your business to take advantage of that deduction, you can, I believe, carry the loss forward to future years when you might be making more. Or, as suggested by someone else, you could lease the car (when that becomes available), and deduct the business portion of the lease payments as an expense. The advantage of leasing is that the depreciation expense, as well as the EV tax credit, are taken by the lessor, who can take advantage of them, and presumably they pass the savings on to you. But you would need to see the lease terms before you would know whether this is really a good deal. And you should also consult your accountant to determine what you can deduct. Don't rely on me.

Good luck!

 

[jcstp]

That's true for the Honda hybrids because they are basically just replacing the flywheel with a motor so you have all the conventional car parts plus the electric parts. It's not true for the Prius. The Prius has removed many of the parts of a conventional car and replaced them with more reliable electronics and has simplified others. For instance the Prius doesn't have: an alternator, a starter motor, a serpentine belt (2010+ only), a clutch or fluid coupling. In addition the automatic transmission with it's hundreds of parts has been replaced by a simple planetary gear system similar to a differential.

Besides the 2004, I also have a 2001 that Denise drives. Both have been trouble-free.

The Volt seems overly complex to me as well.

Naturally, the Tesla has far fewer parts than either which is one of the reason's I'm going for it..

I think there was some comparison somewhere saying about above some treshold of miles, the plugin prius was more economical than the volt!

found the article : Cost per Mile Comparison: 2012 Volt vs. 2013 Prius Plug-in

 

[jerry33]

I think there was some comparison somewhere saying about above some treshold of miles, the plugin prius was more economical than the volt!

That is my understanding as well. There is a very narrow range where the Volt comes out better and the rest of the time the Prius wins.

 

[jcstp]

here another article Chevrolet Volt Vs. Toyota Prius: Compare Cars

 

[Omer]

As someone said earlier, wouldn't the appropriate comparison be the Model S v. some other car you are thinking about buying

I mentioned that earlier and I'll elaborate again. First, i just want to say Alexander I commend your forthright and coherent approach. Most people would be defensive to their views but you appear to really be looking for genuine advice.

Most people that have such high mileage jobs actually change cars quite often rather than the normal assumption that they would lose less money by keeping one car a longer time. The reason is obviously the maintenance. Your perception on hybrids is borne of a first gen Honda hybrid that you've clearly put massive miles on.

From everything I've read the obvious economic choice is a slightly used 2010+ Prius. Go to some of the Prius message boards and review reliability. Also, don't look at 10 year reliability because you probably shouldn't keep a car for more than 3-4 years with your miles. A slightly used Prius can be had below $20k. Assuming you do 42,000 miles/year (i'm guessing but if higher please let us know), you'll burn through about 800 gallons at $4 that's $3200 / year, about what you spend now. The difference is you'll have pocketed $5k up front by selling both of your cars and your registration/insurance would be cut in half by only having 1 car and your repairs/maintenance should go down dramatically with a fairly new Prius vs. a 1st gen Insight.

Now comparing the Prius/Tesla: Tesla would be an extra $5k down beyond the full cost of the Prius to start. Then monthly payments on the remaining $64k of about $960 / month (assuming 6 years 1.5%), electricity $70 / month, Tesla maintenance package $50 / month. So monthly expense excluding tires and out of warranty items (your warranty will be over by the end of year 1 anyway) $1080 plus $25k upfront. Prius fuel cost $265 / month plus maintenance costs plus $20k upfront.

Unless I'm missing something, the Prius comes out $5k upfront plus about $500 - $800 / month cheaper (depending on maintenance assumptions). After 3 years get rid of the Prius and either get a Gen 3 or a newer Prius although your driving requirements may be different then.

Either way, I would think that for a single father living in LA earning $40k in a job that requires $11k to go towards vehicle cost alone, saving $25k over the next 3 years would be quite helpful.

 

[Alexander]

Unless I'm missing something, the Prius comes out $5k upfront plus about $500 - $800 / month cheaper (depending on maintenance assumptions). After 3 years get rid of the Prius and either get a Gen 3 or a newer Prius although your driving requirements may be different then.

...but you would need to see the lease terms before you would know whether this is really a good deal. And you should also consult your accountant to determine what you can deduct. Don't rely on me.

I should probably clarify, [REDACTED] is roughly what I take home after transportation costs. Regardless, I have a lot to think about. I had no idea a Prius could be so efficient. But I guess none of the Prius owners I know are hyper-milers either

I think I'm going to go back to the drawing board for a bit. My order is already on deferment so I have time to think about things. Knowing what I know now, I guess it really comes down to either A) saving a lot of money each month with a Prius and waiting a few years for the EV market to mature, or B) continue to spend around what I'm spending now, but spend it on a nicer car instead of on gas and repairs.

I think the one thing that's clear is that there are better options out there then what I'm doing now... I may just defer until the lease options for the S come out, or until they post the new price hikes. I'll go troll the Prius forms for awhile, and do a little more math. I haven't exactly ran this whole thing past my CPA yet either... well I think I mentioned to her that I was "thinking" about buying one, but I never told her I put down a $5k reservation, lol. I'm going to see her mid next month and would be curious to see what she thinks.

Thanks everyone!

 

[measton]

Get a VOLT

That means that if I buy the base Model S, with the 85kWh Battery for $64,436 (price includes license, tax, and registration), then in 4 years the car will have paid for itself! Leaving me 4 more years (the length of the warrantee) to continue to rack in the savings! AND, ill save on not having to insure two cars! So like a good tactician, I laid out a plan and got to work on executing it. The plan is to sell my two cars to come up with the down payment. For that reason I’m glad the waiting list is 9 to 12 months long. It’s given me time to pay off my Accord so that I can turn that equity into a larger down payment. While my monthly payments will be much larger on the Model S then on my Accord, my other automotive expenses will drop so that either way ill still save money. It took me 9 months to realize this, and once I did I put my reservation in. All my fellow Marines think I’m crazy, and maybe I am… after all I was crazy enough to join right? lol See you on the road!

1. My rec - Get a VOLT or a civic hybrid or a prius or a fusion or cmax or cruze etc. Then you have only one car. You don't need 2 cars. Debt is a cancer that can consume all that you have. The Tesla is a sweet car but you'd be much better off buying a cheaper car now that can do everything you need and putting cash in an account. There is no way to justify buying a Tesla as money saving purchase. Maybe the Gen III. 2. At 40 k a year with a family you may not realize the full benefit of the 7500k IRS incentive. My understanding is if you didn't pay more than 7500k in taxes you won't get the full benefit.

 

[derekt75]

Did you mention yet how much you're budgeting for tires on the Model S?

 

[TonyWilliams]

Leaf with extra battery, 2 Leafs etc. Then compare that solution to the Tesla and see if you are still coming out ahead.

The Engineer extended battery pack for the LEAF is in BK. Bad plan.

 

[stopcrazypp]

As mentioned by others, getting a Prius for now (or keeping your current car(s) depending on the gas savings you get on the Prius; obviously you pick the choice that costs you the least in the next 5 years or so) and waiting for the EV market to mature (Tesla's Gen III and possible competitors sounds like a perfect fit for you) probably is the safest decision to make for now.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

As mentioned by others, getting a Prius for now (or keeping your current car(s) depending on the gas savings you get on the Prius; obviously you pick the choice that costs you the least in the next 5 years or so) and waiting for the EV market to mature (Tesla's Gen III and possible competitors sounds like a perfect fit for you) probably is the safest decision to make for now.

I'll ad to the chorus and say a Prius. The Prius is the lowest TCO of current vehicles for typical high mileage drivers. Any Insight batteries will come from a warehouse and will already have aged significantly and that mean rapid failure. But Prius batteries are new and reliable and cab drivers and couriers prove that the more miles per year the more miles you get out of them. If you're a hypermiler, you can actually do better in terms of TCO with conventional vehicles, but hypermiling a Prius can get you great results too.