I think this pretty much proves that Porsche's CEO knows EXACTLY what Tesla is all about and knows much more about Tesla's affect on this market segment than he is willing to admit.
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Porsche CEO Muller Ignores Tesla
- Thread starter Dutchie
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chateauoaks
Member
Can't believe no one has quoted Gandhi on this thread! "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Rear traction concerns, sure. But this is the first I've ever heard anyone even suggest a Model S (any variant) has "too much body roll". I've heard too little, but never too much.
Rashomon
Member
Definitely not ignoring
Porsche is not ignoring Tesla; they've bought at least two Model S's and have done very deep dives into the vehicles. Porsche, though their engineering services division (PES), has very, very substantial engineering depth. They have Phd e-machine designers, have designed 200C battery packs using A123 F1 cells for their Le Mans hybrid, and are designing reduction gears for quiet electrics for auto makers down the street who you would think could do it themselves. Don't get all parochial and think that expertise is something unique to Tesla.
Their largest export markets are China and the U.S, and for those markets, electrics make a lot of sense. In Germany, not so much so for high-end vehicles, because the speed/power problem is significant on the autobahn; range diminishes with the square of speed, and -- as Tesla proves -- the increased power calls for substantially improved cooling to avoid performance fold back. This is one reason (other than jealousy) Tesla is dissed by German auto execs, and a reason MS sales are disappointing in Germany itself. All the top German automakers are looking to plug-in hybrid versions of their big sedans and SUVs to give acceptable range and meet future CO2 emission requirements. And because Porsche's export markets will demand it, they'll certainly offer a pure electric or two in the relatively near future, probably about the time the Tesla M3 is in production. I'd look for a sedan followed by a SUV off the same platform, probably sharing components with other VW-group divisions. Tesla may currently have battery cost advantages, and a better fast charging infrastructure, but VW Inc. probably has one of the better chances to catch up.
Porsche is not ignoring Tesla; they've bought at least two Model S's and have done very deep dives into the vehicles. Porsche, though their engineering services division (PES), has very, very substantial engineering depth. They have Phd e-machine designers, have designed 200C battery packs using A123 F1 cells for their Le Mans hybrid, and are designing reduction gears for quiet electrics for auto makers down the street who you would think could do it themselves. Don't get all parochial and think that expertise is something unique to Tesla.
Their largest export markets are China and the U.S, and for those markets, electrics make a lot of sense. In Germany, not so much so for high-end vehicles, because the speed/power problem is significant on the autobahn; range diminishes with the square of speed, and -- as Tesla proves -- the increased power calls for substantially improved cooling to avoid performance fold back. This is one reason (other than jealousy) Tesla is dissed by German auto execs, and a reason MS sales are disappointing in Germany itself. All the top German automakers are looking to plug-in hybrid versions of their big sedans and SUVs to give acceptable range and meet future CO2 emission requirements. And because Porsche's export markets will demand it, they'll certainly offer a pure electric or two in the relatively near future, probably about the time the Tesla M3 is in production. I'd look for a sedan followed by a SUV off the same platform, probably sharing components with other VW-group divisions. Tesla may currently have battery cost advantages, and a better fast charging infrastructure, but VW Inc. probably has one of the better chances to catch up.
brucet999
Active Member
I don't understand. By the upper chart, It appears that Panamera sales are down about 4,200 units from 29,000 or about 14.4% The lower chart shows 1,700 fewer Panameras in 2012 than the upper chart, so there seems to be some disagreement about how many Porsche is selling.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
chateauoaks
Member
Incidentally, I believe Jaguar builds about 90K cars annually and Porsche manufactures about 190,000 cars per year, but that number needs to be checked. Tesla is on pace to match Porsche in 2018 and surpass it in 2019.
brucet999
Active Member
Thanks for that bit of info. I have been hesitant to order because I am uncertain about Tesla's likelihood to be in business for the next several years and therefor to be able to continue to support service centers and superchargers. It's good to know that established makers' production numbers are similar.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Porsche is the brand that most closely serves the same approximate market as Tesla, and is most close in size (units) to Tesla. It is the company I am watching most closely for indication of the impact Tesla is having on the rest of the automotive industry.
wallet.dat
Member
While that is true, and we can say the same of Steve Jobs' return to Apple in the 1990s - the situation for an established, well-off big player is different than it is for an underdog (be it startup or a crisis company). The underdog may do well by being disruptive, an established big player might endanger everything by being too disruptive too fast.
This is a hard equation to get right of course. Many a successful big one have failed to adapt, because this kind of thinking has slowed them down too much. But many also have adapted. On the flipside, too panicked moved might endanger Porsche faster than even not adapting at all ever could...
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Sure, but remember what happened to Nokia when Stephen Elop came along and 6-12 months before they had new products out in volume declared Nokia's current phones obsolete and dead-ended. They fared even worse, although the specifics of what caused what can be argued ad infinitum.
There is a reason why established companies perhaps always shouldn't be as disruptive as startups can. Disruptions can hurt them faster than they can benefit from them, a worry not shared by risk-funded startups.
Another lesson learned is, that even in the case of Nokia, they knew far before than they publicly admitted what they were facing - they just failed to respond, not because they didn't know they needed to respond, but because responding to it was hard.
Just because Porsche CEO says publicly one thing, doesn't mean he isn't taking things seriously. Maybe he just doesn't want to Stephen Elop his company.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Used Nissan LEAF Prices Fall Again In April
Ignore the Nissan Leaf part and dig deeper into the table in this article, and you will see the Porsche Panamera is the third-fastest-falling used car value in the USA.
Cayenne is "only" #7 in the list, but I imagine things are going to get very problematic for the value of used Cayennes towards the end of this year.
For sure, people are switching to Tesla.
Ignore the Nissan Leaf part and dig deeper into the table in this article, and you will see the Porsche Panamera is the third-fastest-falling used car value in the USA.
Cayenne is "only" #7 in the list, but I imagine things are going to get very problematic for the value of used Cayennes towards the end of this year.
For sure, people are switching to Tesla.
I had this concern as well, but I really think it will work out one way or another. IF they ultimately do fail, which I still put at 50/50 likelihood, they will certainly be purchased by somebody else. Elon is so well connected in Silicon Valley and there are so many Silicon Valley types that own and love Tesla cars that I'm convinced that either Google or Apple would buy it. Even if you disregard the existing fleet, the brand and supercharger network carry value.
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Exactly. I assure you 100% that they are watching carefully and are concerned. Before jumping on the Tesla bandwagon I had also been considering a 911. Automaking is a tough racket and any competitor that draws sales away is a concern. And they most definitely have lost both sales and profit to Tesla.
But for the CEO to admit that they are watching and are concerned would further reinforce to buyers that a Tesla is a perfectly viable alternative to a Porsche, making the problem worse.
In the Gandhi "ignore, laugh, fight, lose" sequence they're in early stage 3 but pretending to be in stage 2.
The BMW 5 series seems to be the hardest hit:
January: Used Luxury Cars Cheaper in January, Full-Size Vans More Expensive
April: Used Nissan Leaf Prices Still Falling in April
That's some serious dropping.
SebastianR
Active Member
Porsche is really interesting. Here is how many cars they sold:
1995/1996 - 19,262 cars (or about Tesla in 2013)
1996/1997 - 32,383 - Tesla in 2014
[...]
2000/2001 - 54,586 - Tesla in 2015 (it took Porsche until 2000 to crack the 50k threshold)
[...]
2005/2006 - 96,794 - Tesla in 2016 (again, it took Porsche a few years to get up to about 100k)
EDIT ... and then in 2007/2009 Porsche tried to buy VW. - Key point is that Porsche demonstrated you don't need to sell millions of cars to be a viable car maker. /EDIT
I find the speed of Tesla amazing: they want to do in 3-4 years what Porsche did in 10. That's quite something.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
This is an excellent observation. Thanks for bringing our attention to the comparison. I agree with you that Tesla's rate of development really is special.
Of course it gets even more impressive once you consider Porsche started in 1931.
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Very well put.
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