Porsche Mission E

[FlatSix911]

When thinking of Porsche vs Tesla for buyer motivation, given the Porsche idea that many reservations come from existing Tesla owners, there are a few points:
1. Comparing Tesla vs Porsche for warranty service, parts availability and collision repair Porsche wins in many countries. Having owned multiple versions of both brands, Porsche is far better on these measures, despite some 'enthusiastic pricing' by Porsche dealers, they find parts and do service rapidly. many people who have ever faced crash repair in both find Porsche parts arrive fast and accurately. Tesla's arrive slowly, often incorrectly labeled, damaged or both.
2. Both brands are highly prized and have high owner loyalty, but consistency favors Porsche, with decades of high loyalty.
3. The design philosophies make Porsche quite appealing to many enthusiasts. Tesla wins with OTA updates and people who love the most advanced computer technology, and Porsche wins with pure car enthusiasts, especially older than Millennials. Thus, taking nothing from Tesla, owners with multiple sporting vehicles are excellent candidates for Porsche, especially since many already own them.
4. Just from Porsche Club mutterings, I suspect they are getting reservations from existing owners of both Porsche and Tesla, who are quite prepared to continue to own both.

FWIW, quite a few years back I led a project for an aircraft manufacturer to evaluate Porsche owners as candidates to buy small aircraft. >50% of all new US Porsche owners are aircraft pilots. Coincidentally at that time >70% of new Porsche buyers had other luxury vehicles also. That was before Tesla. All that history strongly suggests that Porsche will not really make conquest sales but will expand the BEV market, probably maintaining high BEV loyalty for both.

There is much other data that suggests the points I listed above. That said, some will cite Panamera, Cayenne and Macan as examples of Porsche market expansion. That is partly true, but Mission E will change the story. Porsche hybrids thus far, if my data is correct, tend to be almost all people who were already Porsche buyers anyway.

NET: the more the merrier, but Tesla MUST raise the game of sales treatment and after-sale treatment. Even though Jaguar, Porsche et al may not be very direct competitors there will soon be quite direct comparisons about sales and service.

Addendum: If these points are valid for the USA, which has pretty poor auto services overall, just wait for mass sales in Germany, China, Korea and Japan. Even Norway has some very bad experiences. Disaster beckons if the sad North America/Norwegian stories are repeated in those four countries. Make no mistake, this is an existential crisis equivalent to those of Model X introduction and Model 3 production. Paraphrasing an offensive quotation 'Hell hath no fury like a Tesla lover scorned".

I agree with your comparison between Porsche and Tesla as I have been a long term Pcar owner for over 25 years. Interestingly, I was recently invited to participate in a 4 hour focus group about the future direction of Porsche. The main focus was clearly on new EV models and autonomous driving integration.

Bottom line... Porsche is very interested in what Tesla has accomplished and they are searching for a way to emulate their success without losing the current Porsche brand identity. It is going to be a very difficult transition to Electric vehicles while trying to keep the current ICE customer base happy. All signs point to the transition of the Panamera sedan and Cayenne/Macan SUVs first followed by the Boxster/Cayman and 911 variants last. Can't say more with the NDA limits…

 

[roblab]

Here are some reasons why 800V is better.

....Faster charging means you can easily charge more often, therefore you don't need to have as large capacity battery - cheaper cars.

So, 800V is beneficial to everyone, but not to the same degree.... Of course, if you have all the time in the world and like reading books or visiting wifey while charging, you can make it everywhere in a Leaf too. Between ChaDeMo, 240V and 120V charging, the Leaf will take you anywhere, provided you're willing to spend the time charging.

NO, NO! Don't make me take a Leaf. There are lots of reasons people would buy Tesla over a Leaf, but I don't remember charge times being one of them. And I remember an early comparo of Leafs trying to make it over the Pass into LA. Overheating and running out of charge.

And to your "beneficial to everyone" comment, 800v has lots of unbeneficial things going on, like reduced safety in high voltage, more chance to damage the battery, etc. The only thing one can call beneficial is shorter charging times, and it does not take "all the time in the world." It takes maybe ten more minutes, and you still have to exit and return. It takes a little planning so you don't have to wait on your car. And those rare times where you need to charge faster are just that: RARE.

If someone is finding they have too little charge and they need to charge FAST, I don't believe it. The best way to charge fast is to PLAN, leave a little earlier, and slow down. Driving 80 mph cuts range dramatically, and reducing trip charging means faster charging in the long run, too. To all those who must drive 80 or 90 (or more), who must get there in one eight hour day, or perhaps six so they can watch the Lakers game or some other important thing, I say Chill.

I drive from 'Frisco to Canada, never a problem with charging at superchargers. Bathroom breaks and food breaks and overnight motel breaks allow for lots of charging. Heaven forfend if anyone might have to spend a few minutes with a book or visiting with someone they like.

 

[Mystihawk]

Thanks for the info, great thread!

 

[techmaven]

My understanding is that in countries with significant incentives for EV, buyers often sign up for multiple refundable reservations and then wait to make a selection later. Norway buyers for instance. So it will be interesting to see what happens with the Taycan, as Porsche along with its VAG siblings have been good about talking highest end specs and lowish base price. Now the Taycan is starting to come into focus. There is still a lot we don’t know about it. Will it look more like the mules running around or the concept? I think more like the mules. The thermal limits means it probably can’t match up against a Model 3 Performance. So that will be an interesting comparison.

 

[acoste]

And to your "beneficial to everyone" comment, 800v has lots of unbeneficial things going on, like reduced safety in high voltage, more chance to damage the battery, etc.

There is no reduced safety here. It just needs the insulation sized accordingly.
And the batteries that can receive high charge rates are designed to do so. Pretty early to talk about battery degradation without any evidence.

If someone is finding they have too little charge and they need to charge FAST, I don't believe it.

Huge benefit for road trips. Plus people who don't have charging capabilities at home could quickly charge it up any day, just like filling up with gas.

 

[NewTMSMan]

Plus people who don't have charging capabilities at home could quickly charge it up any day, just like filling up with gas.

Sorry but don't agree that the "holy grail" for electric cars is emulation of the "gas station experience". Be much better if non-homeowners had charging in parking where they leave their cars including ability to add street charging in more public places. The move to ABC (Always Be Charging) is a much better alternative than trying to get back to needing to come to some central area to "re-fuel" your vehicle. More options for continuously charging whenever parked is a much better approach.

 

[RogerHScott]

Sorry but don't agree that the "holy grail" for electric cars is emulation of the "gas station experience". Be much better if non-homeowners had charging in parking where they leave their cars including ability to add street charging in more public places. The move to ABC (Always Be Charging) is a much better alternative than trying to get back to needing to come to some central area to "re-fuel" your vehicle. More options for continuously charging whenever parked is a much better approach.

Care to discuss the practical concerns of routing that kind of power to that many different locations, almost all of which are currently covered by concrete or asphalt?

 

[svp6]

As for higher voltage increasing the net capacity of SpC sites (and thus reducing the average wait time), that just doesn't wash. The job of an SpC is to deliver energy to cars, and that energy is measured in kWh, which is voltage (kV) * current (amperes) * time (hours). If you double the voltage but halve the current the kW stays the same. The limiting factor on how many cars a given SpC can charge per hour is its total power draw from the electric grid, and changing the voltage supplied to the cars doesn't change that. I'm sure some locations have surplus power capacity available (at least today), but many SpC locations in urban locations already operate at less than the maximum ~100kW charging rate (I assume) due to supply limits.

I am not sure where the twice voltage half current started from - did Porsche release the official specs of the system? I think the only official statement was that it will charge to 80% (whatever that 80% may be) in 15 minutes or less. Some additional talk on 250 miles in 20 minutes or 62 miles in 4 minutes. So if vast majority of drivers spend <15 minutes at the charger, that would mean faster turnover, wouldn't it?

 

[techmaven]

Care to discuss the practical concerns of routing that kind of power to that many different locations, almost all of which are currently covered by concrete or asphalt?

It will require some build out. In some cases, retrofit, sometimes with conduit. Part of it is requiring conduit during new construction so that the build out is easier. It will take some time.

 

[jgs]

Care to discuss the practical concerns of routing that kind of power to that many different locations, almost all of which are currently covered by concrete or asphalt?

At least part of the idea as I understand it, is that if you can plug in every time you stop your car, you don't need high power charging at every spot. Even 1.5kW provides some benefit if you're parked there for hours. Of course, if you can do better that's preferable, but you don't need to upgrade all the infrastructure from the get-go.

I think some airports have made use of this observation, installing lots and lots of common household outlets instead of a much smaller number of J1772s. For that application, it makes perfect sense.

 

[Eno Deb]

And to your "beneficial to everyone" comment, 800v has lots of unbeneficial things going on, like reduced safety in high voltage, more chance to damage the battery, etc.

We have no data regarding "battery damage".

As far as safety is concerned, I don't see any increased risk either. For one, being zapped with 400V DC isn't any less deadly than 800V. But depending on how Porsche implements the 800V charging there may not even be 800V anywhere in the car when it's not charging. One way to be able to charge at either 400V or 800V is to partition the battery into two separate 400V groups, which (using contactors) can be switched between a serial and parallel configuration. Serial would be used for 800V charging, and parallel for 400V charging and driving. This setup has the advantage that existing 400V drivetrain components could be used. Of course this is just speculation, since Porsche hasn't disclosed the design AFAIK.

The only thing one can call beneficial is shorter charging times

Sure, but that would be a huge advantage from both a usability and scalability (number of cars a station can serve per time unit) perspective.

 

[acoste]

Sorry but don't agree that the "holy grail" for electric cars is emulation of the "gas station experience". Be much better if non-homeowners had charging in parking where they leave their cars including ability to add street charging in more public places. The move to ABC (Always Be Charging) is a much better alternative than trying to get back to needing to come to some central area to "re-fuel" your vehicle. More options for continuously charging whenever parked is a much better approach.

Once the autonomous cars are available they could just drive to a charging point while people are at work. I don't see small businesses spending money on charging infrastructure. (I know some do but they have a different currency - like Google). Continuing the autonomous thought, if cars can do that, why own a car? Someone else can use "my car" while it is "getting charged".
One important note, since solar works during the day, but not at night, it is better to charge cars during the day.

 

[VT_EE]

I am not sure where the twice voltage half current started from - did Porsche release the official specs of the system? I think the only official statement was that it will charge to 80% (whatever that 80% may be) in 15 minutes or less. Some additional talk on 250 miles in 20 minutes or 62 miles in 4 minutes. So if vast majority of drivers spend <15 minutes at the charger, that would mean faster turnover, wouldn't it?

Power=voltage (V) * current (A)

For a given amount of power, twice the voltage yields half the current. Current is what creates heat in wiring.

 

[jgs]

Once the autonomous cars are available they could just drive to a charging point while people are at work.

Once we all have superpowers we could just fly to work under our own power.

(Not everyone believes self driving is just over the horizon.)

 

[NewTMSMan]

Care to discuss the practical concerns of routing that kind of power to that many different locations, almost all of which are currently covered by concrete or asphalt?

Sure, average driver driver 29 miles per day and drives for 46 minutes. That’s 11 hours charging on a 20A circuit to recover and will have 12 hours to spare. No real build out needed at all. Just really need ABC, not CWN (Charge when necessary)

 

[RogerHScott]

Sure, average driver driver 29 miles per day and drives for 46 minutes. That’s 11 hours charging on a 20A circuit to recover and will have 12 hours to spare. No real build out needed at all. Just really need ABC, not CWN (Charge when necessary)

I guess I must just not be seeing those outlets at 99.92% of all of the places I've ever parked my car. I'll look closer next time.

 

[svp6]

Power=voltage (V) * current (A)

For a given amount of power, twice the voltage yields half the current. Current is what creates heat in wiring.

The chargers proposed by Porsche are 350 kW - so the power is not the same as the Tesla superchargers. That is why I do not understand why people assume the current will be half just because the voltage is double.

 

[wdolson]

We have no data regarding "battery damage".

As far as safety is concerned, I don't see any increased risk either. For one, being zapped with 400V DC isn't any less deadly than 800V. But depending on how Porsche implements the 800V charging there may not even be 800V anywhere in the car when it's not charging. One way to be able to charge at either 400V or 800V is to partition the battery into two separate 400V groups, which (using contactors) can be switched between a serial and parallel configuration. Serial would be used for 800V charging, and parallel for 400V charging and driving. This setup has the advantage that existing 400V drivetrain components could be used. Of course this is just speculation, since Porsche hasn't disclosed the design AFAIK.
Sure, but that would be a huge advantage from both a usability and scalability (number of cars a station can serve per time unit) perspective.

It's high current, not voltage that will kill you. If you get a static electricity shock, that can be thousands of volts, but with virtually no current, so all it does it hurt. A battery with low voltage and high current capability won't kill you because at the resistance of your body, a low voltage battery won't deliver enough current to hurt you. Dry skin has a resistance around 100 Kohms. Wet skin can be as low as 1000 ohms, but is usually more than that. 12v/100K = 120 uA which is below what a normal person can feel. Most people start to feel current around 1-5mA.

At 1000 ohms the current will be 12 mA, which is enough to possibly caused some injury, but probably wouldn't kill you. Now if you're too close to arcing from a 12V battery delivering a lot of current with a short or near short, you could get flash burns, but it won't be from the current going through you, it will be more from getting splattered with molten metal.

400V or 800V from a car battery pack can kill you either way. Both are capable of delivering lethal levels of current with enough voltage to get you there.

Power=voltage (V) * current (A)

For a given amount of power, twice the voltage yields half the current. Current is what creates heat in wiring.

Higher current has more power effect than higher voltage, which is why long distance power lines are high voltage. The power equations are:

P = I^2R = V^2\R = VI

Voltage and current always combine together to contribute to power loss, but because of the interplay with resistance in a low resistance system like a power line, you get less loss with high voltage and lower current in a transmission system.

In a transmission line far away from anything else that can conduct electricity, high voltages are fine, but the higher the voltage, the bigger the gap the voltage can jump and the better insulated it needs to be.

For a car, the top speed of charging is primarily affected by the number of cells and the maximum current each cell can take. A Model S/X 85/90 pack has 7104 cells. If you wired them all in series you would have a pack of around 28,000 V, but it would charge no faster at a supercharger because each individual cell still has the same current limit. There would be problems with arcing with a 28 KV system which makes it very impractical, but you could make a 28 KV charger, but the current would be in the mA because of the limits of the cells.

The only way to handle 800V at the same current would be to double the cells or use a chemistry capable of higher currents (which would almost certainly be much lower energy capacity). Physics prevents anything else. Try to charge cells at too high a current and you get a battery pack fire, which kind of ruins your day as well as the car.

If the Taycan has a pack capable of charging at a much higher power than a Tesla supercharger, it either has more cells or a different chemistry with lower energy density and a shorter range. If they have an 800V pack that takes 1/2 the current, they have the same number of cells wired up differently and the overall power possible for charging is the same.

Porsche advertising 800V packs might just be a marketing thing to try and convince people the Taycan is much better than Tesla's offerings, even though it is pretty much the same.

Back when I was in college we had to take a logic and reasoning course for general ed requirements. The professor used an example from a Shell gasoline commercial that was running on TV at the time. They talked about some additive they added to the gas to improve gas mileage and had a demonstration of two cars one running with and one without the additive. It turns out that the stuff they were talking about was the common octane booster everyone was putting in gas after tetra ethyl lead was banned. It was just Shell's brand name for the same thing everyone was using. Without it, the gasoline was about 60 octane.

The Taycan now 800V!!!!*

*Same power, just higher voltage

Ultimately we'll see how it all works in the real world. I expect Porsche's build quality and service will be superior to Tesla's. If they actually beat Tesla in any other area is still to be seen.

 

[gavine]

Regarding cells which can accept faster charging having less capacity, some might prefer less range with faster charging.

 

[tga]

One important note, since solar works during the day, but not at night, it is better to charge cars during the day

Not necessarily. If you have a surplus of solar on the grid, it's probably best to use the excess to charge cars. Otherwise, it's arguably better to let the grid have the solar, displacing dirty peaker plants, and charge the cars at night off of cleaner base load plants (wind, gas, nuclear, hydro). That approach generally results in lower emissions of CO2 and other pollutants.