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Discussion in 'Video' started by Vger, Apr 22, 2014.
Plugging In: The Future of Electric Cars - The National - CBC Player
That was excellent! Nice to see you in person too, Vger -- at 2:45 in, You seem like a really great guy! I hope we meet up some day.
I noticed that at 6:15 they say Tesla offers 370 km on one charge. That's not true. It's 480.
Very nicely done. It's good that they chose someone credible presenting the alternative viewpoint - not just someone spewing FUD. Even though I think he's largely wrong. Pure EVs will be a much larger chunk of the solution than he thinks.
Thanks, Guys! Truthfully, it was a blast to do. I hope they will give us some access to the out takes. There was a LOT more stuff they captured but did not air. Doug, I totally agree about O'Dell. Credible, just wrong. If you drive a Fiat 500e with 100 km range, of course you will believe in range anxiety and slow adoption! Grrrr!
Outstanding job, Vger. It's surprising O'Dell (touted as the green car tester) lacks the vision to see into the future. To a minor extent I agree with him but I think he has the mix completely wrong. I can't see anything but EVs powering personal vehicles within the next 25 years. There might be some range extenders (EV training wheels) around but they will be on the way out by that time.
Sometimes I find it hard to fathom how people like O'Dell can be so completely blind.
I think customers will want nothing but EVs 25 years from now, but can the industry build the over 100 Gigafactories that will be needed to make the batteries by then? The Gigafactory has more sq ft than Boeing's 747 assembly plant, and supplies 500,000 cars per year. World car production is about 75M cars per year, and will be about 100M in 2025.
I think some people will be stuck with ICEs.
FWIW here is my take on the future of transportation:
Once things start to change, passenger cars will transition fairly rapidly to a largely EV fleet, simply due to economics. Gasoline will simply become too expensive. While electricity prices will also rise, there will still be a 4:1 cost advantage due to the efficiency of electric drive
Battery technology will continue to drop in price. Once it reaches a certain threshold, the current slow rise in EV sales will become a torrent. New car customers will recognize the huge cost advantages to electric drive. Barriers such as charging networks will fall rapidly since rolling out that infrastructure is inexpensive compared to all other options.
Auto companies that haven't planned for a massive transition will be in trouble, and may disappear altogether. Those who have positioned themselves with product in the EV market will be scrambling to transition their production lines over.
During the transition dropping demand will ease demand and lower the cost of gasoline. Thus some gasoline vehicles will be around for a while, which is important since we can't replace the whole fleet instantly. Refineries will change their mix of products away from gasoline as demand falls, possibly reducing costs or restraining costs of manufactured products that depend on oil (namely, almost everything).
Large, long range trucks will convert to more of a mix of technologies. Probably pure EV will not happen for some time simply due to cost and pack size. This is probably the only true opportunity for automotive hydrogen power; however natural gas will probably be a more economically viable option
All extremely sound, IMHO. +1!
In many places in the world, companies use these things called trains, and they're often electric!
They're diesel-electric here, except for commuter trains. Unfortunately our country is something like 6,000 km across so it's kinda hard to electrify all that.
Agree with everything you say except item 4, drop in demand will not change cost of gasoline at least in the US. We have seen a drop in fuel consumption in this country in the last 5 years of 15% and an increase of oil production by 15%. The normal supply and demand economics does not work in the US because we should have seen a drop in gas prices due to the above, but because we sell most of our oil out of this country due to larger profits our fuel prices have not lowered. So even if we continue to sell more fuel efficient vehicle and produce more oil we then will just sell more out of this country. So as far as I'm concerned, even a better reason to not have to go to a gas station.
Moved a bunch of posts to Oil Sands
Some of that is probably heading for the snippy-bin, but fortunately that's someone else's section!
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That could be, but the impact of EVs will be worldwide, not just in the USA.
@ Vger that was pretty cool good job
Little disappointing their take on the whole thing I don't know why it is so hard for any media outlet to get our take on things there is no range anxiety and this is just the truth plain simple
I had a little range anxiety going to Florida from Toronto but that should be solved soon and when you factor in most of your driving is in what I like to call your bubble it really makes no sense to me 50,000 km in one year and just a little bit of range anxiety getting to Pittsburgh after that it was clear sailing : )
I loved to see the video.
Nice to see and hear Chris Paine again. Looking forward to his next documentary.
Thanks for posting this video.
To be fair, I think Range Anxiety does exist, and I've felt it a bit myself even with my 85 kWh pack. On longer trips, I've had to carefully plan my charging stops and always feel some trepidation as I pull up to charging spots over whether it will be occupied (has happened to me), ICE'd (has happened to me) or is simply out of service (has happened to me). It will get better, but today if a corner gas station is closed, there is usually two more right across the street. It's not like that with EVSE yet.
Also remember that even though the piece featured Teslas, it was on EVs in general. I know some Leaf owners that really feel Range Anxiety, especially in the winter. One fellow I know had to have his Leaf flat-bedded once and another time he had to walk home, get his son and push the car the last few hundred feet to his driveway. Another Leaf friend talks about how he has to crawl along with the heat off and the windows all fogged, up fingers crossed that he'll make it to his destination.
@mknox I think you're right for some clearly in your case maybe it's just me but I like to think for Tesla owners anyway that the majority of us don't have this problem and I think by the end of year this problem will be solved for the great majority of Tesla owners maybe a little bit longer but not much
As a soon to be former Leaf owner I agree; and winter range is one of the reasons/justifications for upgrading to a Tesla. I assume once I have a pack that is 3.5x larger I would never have range anxiety again except on a longer road trips where I am pushing the range on purpose. But never locally as with the leaf.
Fair enough. My difficult with his comments was just in the emphasis and how it coloured the piece. Nonetheless Mr. O'Dell considers himself an EV advocate overall. I was copied on an email he sent to the producers and other participants, and he was actually very positive in that.
I max charged and only got Rated Range up to 434km. Are most people getting a higher number? I was expecting 480km as advertised. Is 480km not rated, but ideal? I can't imagine actually getting 480km without significant elevation loss.
Yes, 480km is when using "ideal" range (which I don't think anybody does). Rated range is around 424km. Maybe that's now been bumped to 434km with the algorithm tweaks introduced in FW4.9?