Possibility that prices will go up with weakened dollar?

[duvywpg]

Hey guys

First time poster, long time lurker.

I have been in the 'almost there' camp regarding purchasing a model 3 for about 6 months. Haven't been able to convince myself to pull the trigger. A (non tesla) dealership near me has one that is being delivered next week and they still haven't sold it. That's beside the point though.

As I was running the numbers something came to mind that made me think maybe I should buy now:

Canada's economy is heavily weighted in the energy/oil sector, and the TSX took a larger hit yesterday than other more well diversified economies. The CAD is historically tied to our economy and there are already reports that the dollar is forecasted to get even worse in value.

How bad do you think it would have to get for Tesla to change the price on the Canadian website? Maybe buying now at $55k is a decent move considering that conversion changes could bump up the price to 60k-70k (SR+).

Anyways, just thought it was worth a discussion. Tell me why you think I could be right, or why I could be wrong!

 

[wayner]

Tesla usually does adjust prices fairly frequently, at least the used to. And the CAD is now towards the weaker end of the 1.20-1.40 trading range that it has been at for the last five years. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they raised prices in Canada.

 

[Oveeus]

Don't hold me accountable for this but IMO, in a short term, I don't see Tesla adjusting prices, for the SR+ at least. That's unless CAD takes a much wilder drop and it begins to hit the bottom line.

Reason is that SR+ is already priced at the very limit of Fed/prov rebates qualification. Should they adjust the price up even by a few hundred dollars, they are effectively raising the price by $5000 (for all of canada) or 8000/13000 (BC/QC respectively).

And for a basic model, that makes a huge difference. So, I'd guess that they hold onto that magic 55k number for as long as they possibly can or start lobbying (maybe with other manufacturers as they are going EV too) the gov't to raise that threshold.

But seriously though, it's a great car. Only regret I had after getting it is not getting it sooner so I didn't have to spend all those expensive maintenances I had to do on my previous car. Order it, finance it before any further variable kicks in (rebates going away/less... etc) As of today I think the wait time is like 2mth for SR+. So, if you can make that to work, ordering today and securing the price might not be a bad idea.

 

[mrbush22]

Don't hold me accountable for this but IMO, in a short term, I don't see Tesla adjusting prices, for the SR+ at least. That's unless CAD takes a much wilder drop and it begins to hit the bottom line.

Reason is that SR+ is already priced at the very limit of Fed/prov rebates qualification. Should they adjust the price up even by a few hundred dollars, they are effectively raising the price by $5000 (for all of canada) or 8000/13000 (BC/QC respectively).

And for a basic model, that makes a huge difference. So, I'd guess that they hold onto that magic 55k number for as long as they possibly can or start lobbying (maybe with other manufacturers as they are going EV too) the gov't to raise that threshold.

But seriously though, it's a great car. Only regret I had after getting it is not getting it sooner so I didn't have to spend all those expensive maintenances I had to do on my previous car. Order it, finance it before any further variable kicks in (rebates going away/less... etc) As of today I think the wait time is like 2mth for SR+. So, if you can make that to work, ordering today and securing the price might not be a bad idea.

This was my thought as well, the incentive must play a big part in the sales of the SR+ here and any increase in price could affect that. I was planning on saving up a deposit to order one this summer, but I am getting worried about those variables (price increase, changes to incentives)...really trying to resist the urge to buy it before I can plan for it properly.

 

[Oveeus]

This was my thought as well, the incentive must play a big part in the sales of the SR+ here and any increase in price could affect that. I was planning on saving up a deposit to order one this summer, but I am getting worried about those variables (price increase, changes to incentives)...really trying to resist the urge to buy it before I can plan for it properly.

I'd say unless it makes a huge difference, which I don't see from your posts, as you are saving "for a deposit", implying that you'd be financing the purchase anyway, why not do it a few months sooner? I believe the rate for financing also dropped just recently, and you can always put that money back into the loan and get the payment to be shortened.

Of course, everyone have to be responsible for their finances and always live within their mean. But if you were going to order it this summer anyway and you can afford it, I don't see why risk anything and a few more extra month would hardly make any difference. Tesla might not change their pricing, but incentives can go like a snap. I know because I took delivery on the day that BC announced it was reducing the rebate from 5k-->3k. I bought it anyway and was glad that BC gov't made some changes and allowed anyone who ordered prior the announcement to grandfather the 5k. But I had to live with that feeling of "I should have done this sooner" until they announced that they were grandfathering.

 

[TheWulf]

I don't think they would readjust the SR+ as it would move it out of the rebate eligibility.

However, with the current exchange rate the P3 is US$5000 ($7200) less expensive in Canada compared to the US list price - that's extremely significant. I can see a bump on the premium models.

 

[Kamixus]

I wonder what would happen to my order if the prices went up before taking delivery in April. I'm assuming the price that I agreed to would be locked in?

 

[TheWulf]

Yes, your order price should be locked in, but if you refuse delivery and have to re-place your order then you'd be subject to the new prices.

 

[xG35]

I don’t think the base model will get adjusted but I can see all the other models being increased. We are talking 10% difference by now so it is quite a bit.

I bought my car pre rate change and asking a sales person will might give you a hint. They Knew a few days in advance.

 

[Blu-Ion]

I expect Tesla to reduce M3 pricing in US starting in April. They won't need to adjust for CAD$

 

[MexiCanuck]

I don’t think the base model will get adjusted but I can see all the other models being increased. We are talking 10% difference by now so it is quite a bit.

And let’s remember, the SR+ is not the base model. In Canada, the base model is the 150 km “SR-“.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/01/tesla-cheaper-model-3-canada-incentive/

 

[MexiCanuck]

I expect Tesla to reduce M3 pricing in US starting in April. They won't need to adjust for CAD$

I’m interested why you think that. Tesla sales have historically been limited by supply, not demand. Even if the current economic situation were to reduce demand by 10-15%, I would think that supply would still be the limiting factor, not demand.

 

[Uncle Paul]

If you have not ordered by now, you missed the boat. Factory is closing down due to virus. All bets are off as to when they will be able to reopen and what will be the state of economy and pricing when they do.

 

[Blu-Ion]

I’m interested why you think that. Tesla sales have historically been limited by supply, not demand. Even if the current economic situation were to reduce demand by 10-15%, I would think that supply would still be the limiting factor, not demand.

Many factors:
1) Supply is high right now, many unsold vehicles going into next Q
2) MY will eat into M3 sales
3) State of the economy - who has money to spend with no jobs and stock market crash?
4) Price of oil/gas eats into the appeal for EVs
5) Production & battery efficiency gains to lower costs

 

[TheWulf]

Counterpoints:

1) Supply is high right now, many unsold vehicles going into next Q
Supply is also limited due to the Fremont factory shutdown. There is no ETA as to when they will reopen, and in stock vehicles may be all that is available for Q2. I believe Tesla is confident enough in the demand for their product that they will stick to their price

2) MY will eat into M3 sales
What data supports this? They are different classes of vehicles, and the cheapest Model Y price at the moment is $72,230 compared to the Model 3 $55,390 (less if you go for the off-menu SR-). That's a big jump for many people. I just bought my 3 and I considered the Y -- not worth the extra price unless you NEED to be in the C-SUV segment.

3) State of the economy - who has money to spend with no jobs and stock market crash?
Many people who have the kind of disposable income to buy a Tesla fall into this category, notably tech sector workers working remotely. (Hello!).

4) Price of oil/gas eats into the appeal for EVs
This isn't the only reason people buy EVs. For those who do fall into that camp, I have enough faith that most people realize prices won't stay at this level for long. This is a very temporary market position, which IMO isn't enough to make a 5-6 year commitment to a new gas vehicle. There are other reasons people buy gas vehicles.

5) Production & battery efficiency gains to lower costs
This would imply that Tesla will change the battery configurations in the 3, which there is no reason to believe will happen. Historically, notable battery improvements have trickled in slowly, starting with the newer models (Roadster, Cybertruck, Semi). It would be incredibly expensive to retool the Model 3 and Model Y lines for a new battery structure -- since they started delivering the MYs with the 3's chemistry, a change is even less likely. This is why the Model S is still using 18650 cells.

Bonus: USD/CAD exchange rate is spiking
The model 3 performance is available at a 10% discount compared to USD prices at the moment. Prices may not go up right away, but they sure aren't going down...

All of the above is why I ordered my 3 last week. No regrets.

 

[Blu-Ion]

1) The Freemont factory shutdown is occurring at the right time, because M3 production had exceeded the demand leading up to COVID, California sales were plummeting in Q4 and now worse into Q1.
2) You can't compare SR+ M3 price vs Dual motor MY. If I were buying today, I would get a Y hands down, and so would most other buyers looking a DM M3. See BMW 3 series vs X3 sales in NA for comparison, the CUV market is huge and profitable (approx 50% of passenger vehicle sales and growing) and sedan market is dying
3) The state of the economy is a HUGE concern, trust me, many people are putting off their purchases, I know I just cancelled my new boat purchase. .. oh yeah, and I also work in tech, we're not immune
4) LOL, I know Telsas are more than EVs but there is a direct correlation between gas prices and EV adoption, look at US sales state by state vs local price of gas
5) You obviously don't follow much about production costs etc, I will forgive you for your ignorance. Just do a little research and find out the costs per KW in battery production for Tesla over last 2 years, huge efficiency gains happening, this is why M3 pricing has more room to come down in the near future (at least is USD$)

I'm a long term Tesla bull, although I do admit to having sold my position a couple of weeks ago before this free fall, I think we're looking at 2021 before we see significant upside from here

 

[yuhong]

Don't hold me accountable for this but IMO, in a short term, I don't see Tesla adjusting prices, for the SR+ at least. That's unless CAD takes a much wilder drop and it begins to hit the bottom line.

Reason is that SR+ is already priced at the very limit of Fed/prov rebates qualification. Should they adjust the price up even by a few hundred dollars, they are effectively raising the price by $5000 (for all of canada) or 8000/13000 (BC/QC respectively).

And for a basic model, that makes a huge difference. So, I'd guess that they hold onto that magic 55k number for as long as they possibly can or start lobbying (maybe with other manufacturers as they are going EV too) the gov't to raise that threshold.

But seriously though, it's a great car. Only regret I had after getting it is not getting it sooner so I didn't have to spend all those expensive maintenances I had to do on my previous car. Order it, finance it before any further variable kicks in (rebates going away/less... etc) As of today I think the wait time is like 2mth for SR+. So, if you can make that to work, ordering today and securing the price might not be a bad idea.

The $55k CAD model is still about $38k USD anyway even at current rates. The $45k CAD models do worse I think at just below $32k USD.

 

[Kappatown35]

Talked with a rep and they said expect a decent increase to AWD... not sure when tho

 

[Gusx]

Looks like the price increased by $2K CAD on the AWD and the performance (now 67,990 and 77,990). Standard range plus remains the same.

 

[Kappatown35]

Dang was torn between SR+ And AWD def going SR+