Possible victory scenario for Tesla

[strangecosmos]

It’s 2021. Tesla is producing cars at a rate of 2.5 million per year, across the Model Y, Model 3, Model X, and Model S. The Tesla pickup truck is also selling hundreds of thousands of units per year. In addition to these passenger vehicles, Tesla is also producing the Tesla Semi.

In 2020, Tesla launched the Tesla Network. In 2021, competitors are just now producing cars equipped with self-driving hardware since they waited for the price of lidar to fall. Tesla has established a foothold in the autonomous ride-hailing market, racking up an early data advantage, establishing customer loyalty and habit, and building out charging, service, and nighttime parking infrastructure. Tesla is also preparing to launch the Tesla Freight Network using its self-driving Tesla Semis.

With a combination of vehicle sales and the Tesla Network, Tesla is making cash hand over fist. It has the capital to build out Gigafactories for Powerpacks, solar panels, and Solar Roofs, to grow the energy business to massive global scale. The world will need trillions' worth of solar and batteries to transition power grids to sustainable energy.

Tesla also has the capital to build more car Gigafactories, but it is carefully weighing its options. Autonomous ride-hailing means demand for cars could plummet as cars become shared between multiple people. But the world will need as many as 400 million autonomous cars (1 for every 5 cars that exists today), and it wants to turn over the world fleet ASAP. Beyond that, a new generation of self-driving cars every 5 years would keep demand at 80 million cars per year for decades to come.

The point is now that scale of vehicle production is a choice. Tesla is now just trying to match supply with demand. Manufacturing scale is no longer an automatic disadvantage, since competitors may suffer from overcapacity. And they too are weighing the same options, since they are now investing in new manufacturing capacity for autonomous electric vehicles.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The products past, present and future are all there no doubt. And clearly no one's catching up quickly.

Let's get one full-scale car factory running at speed first.

 

[strangecosmos]

Let's get one full-scale car factory running at speed first.

Five months!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That would've delightful.

 

[kort677]

 

[EinSV]

It’s 2021. Tesla is producing cars at a rate of 2.5 million per year, across the Model Y, Model 3, Model X, and Model S. The Tesla pickup truck is also selling hundreds of thousands of units per year. In addition to these passenger vehicles, Tesla is also producing the Tesla Semi.

In 2020, Tesla launched the Tesla Network. In 2021, competitors are just now producing cars equipped with self-driving hardware since they waited for the price of lidar to fall. Tesla has established a foothold in the autonomous ride-hailing market, racking up an early data advantage, establishing customer loyalty and habit, and building out charging, service, and nighttime parking infrastructure. Tesla is also preparing to launch the Tesla Freight Network using its self-driving Tesla Semis.

With a combination of vehicle sales and the Tesla Network, Tesla is making cash hand over fist. It has the capital to build out Gigafactories for Powerpacks, solar panels, and Solar Roofs, to grow the energy business to massive global scale. The world will need trillions' worth of solar and batteries to transition power grids to sustainable energy.

Tesla also has the capital to build more car Gigafactories, but it is carefully weighing its options. Autonomous ride-hailing means demand for cars could plummet as cars become shared between multiple people. But the world will need as many as 400 million autonomous cars (1 for every 5 cars that exists today), and it wants to turn over the world fleet ASAP. Beyond that, a new generation of self-driving cars every 5 years would keep demand at 80 million cars per year for decades to come.

The point is now that scale of vehicle production is a choice. Tesla is now just trying to match supply with demand. Manufacturing scale is no longer an automatic disadvantage, since competitors may suffer from overcapacity. And they too are weighing the same options, since they are now investing in new manufacturing capacity for autonomous electric vehicles.

The timing probably needs some error bars but this scenario or something like it is not implausible to me. Thanks for posting.

 

[strangecosmos]

The timing probably needs some error bars

Hmm... 2019-2023? So -1 year/+2 years.

Demand for the S3XY Models may peak as low as 1.1 million, or might go much higher than 2.5 million. Gene Munster estimates the Model 3 demand alone could be 2.75 million. I assume the Y will be at least as popular as the 3. That would put total S3XY demand at 5.5 million.

 

[EinSV]

Hmm... 2019-2023? So -1 year/+2 years.

Demand for the S3XY Models may peak as low as 1.1 million, or might go much higher than 2.5 million. Gene Munster estimates the Model 3 demand alone could be 2.75 million. I assume the Y will be at least as popular as the 3. That would put total S3XY demand at 5.5 million.

2019-2023 sounds like a reasonable range for the different parts of the package described in your OP to roll out. And I agree that demand for 3 and Y could be very high -- I think people underestimate what it means to have ~500,000 reservations especially considering most people have never driven or even seen the car in person, and Tesla is still relatively unknown in many parts of the world (even in the U.S.).

 

[electracity]

Where is the additional factory in which Tesla will produce cars in 2020?

I doubt Tesla can move much past 600K cars/year before 2022-3.

 

[deonb]

In 2020, Tesla launched the Tesla Network.

No.

 

[strangecosmos]

I meant to say 2020-2023 (-1 year/+2 years). The Model Y won't begin production until 2019 at the earliest. If production starts in 2019, I would guess the full production ramp probably won't be compted until 2020.

 

[strangecosmos]

Where is the additional factory in which Tesla will produce cars in 2020?

Tesla is planning to build a factory in China to produce hundreds of thousands of Model 3s and Model Ys per year. The factory is planned to begin production in 2020. I would guess there are plans for more factories elsewhere in the world to begin production in 2020 or 2021.

 

[engle]

Where is the additional factory in which Tesla will produce cars in 2020?

I doubt Tesla can move much past 600K cars/year before 2022-3.

Tesla is approx. DOUBLING the size of their factory in Fremont where I live. My friend, the Mayor, and the rest of our City Council have already approved the plans. Tesla is quickly building a huge multi-story VLSM (Vertical Lift Storage Module) for J.I.T. parts storage right now which is already framed. It towers above the factory. I have some photos I'll post in another thread later. The VLSM will free-up acres of floor space inside for more assembly lines. A huge new parking lot is almost completed on an empty lot at the edges of the property for employee parking. Once that is done, parts of the old parking lot adjacent to the existing buildings will be demolished to make room for all the factory additions.

The old NUMMI car factory produced ~500K GM & Toyota vehicles per year back in its heyday. This implies TSLA will be able to produce at least 1M units/year once the Fremont factory has been completely expanded. Since the Model 3/future Y skateboards are being manufactured at Gigafactory 1 in NV, it's possible after they build the "alien dreadnought" they may eventually exceed 1M units/year in Fremont alone.

Then, let's assume another 500K vehicles/year Model 3 and Y final assembly in China. Elon says 3 years, so let's give them 4 years (2022 Q1 . That factory should "ramp" a lot faster if they use a proven production line design and software. Knowing TSLA - they probably won't - as Elon seems to love to tinker and iterate.

My personal prediction is TSLA will build at least 1.5M vehicles worldwide in 2022 as follows: (I haven't read any of the latest analyst estimates)

1. 550K Model Y
2. 425K Model 3
3. 175K Model S version 3.X (version 2 got rid of the plastic nose cone with AP 2.0)
4. 150K Model X version 2.X
5. 125K Model F (full-size pickup truck)
6. 50K Tesla Semi (20% market share)
7. 25K Model R (new Roadster)

If they manage to get a Eurozone plant fully ramped-up by 2022, then my revised prediction is ~2M. To put this in perspective, 2016 worldwide car and light commercial vehicle sales were 88M.

I predict the approximate battery kWh sizes offered in 2022 will be:

S: 100, 125
X: 100, 125
3: 60, 90
Y: 60, 90
R: 90
P: 100, 125

Longer term, I predict that Tesla will start acquiring the weakest legacy ICE manufacturers in order to redeploy their manufacturing plants to build EVs.

The legacy players are starting to look pretty desperate at this point. They have deep pockets, but still feel the need to "gang up" on Tesla in Europe with their joint effort to build a fast-charging network there. They will all have to write-off their huge investments in obsolete ICE technology.

Tesla is the aspirational brand. Look at all of the Model 3 reservations that were made sight unseen!

For Halloween, I parked my 2016 X P90D at the end of my driveway facing the street. I covered my headlights with red and yellow clear film (orange). When the kids came by, the "trick" was the holiday easter egg show. I'll never forget one little 2-year-old boy. His uncle said he loves cars. He stared at my white X with a look of total fascination as the falcon wings flapped in the air. When the music ended, he turned to me and asked:

"Is that a Model X?"

His uncle told him that he'll be driving a Tesla when he grows up...

The effect proliferation of the Model 3 and Model Y will have on the millions of children that will ride in them should not be underestimated. Kids are smart and they "get it".

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't think cars are really going to matter much in Tesla's future. Their path to Amazon-esque ubiquity is in the energy sector. If they can print these batteries fast enough, they'll own the US energy sector in 5 years. Much more profitable than building cars.

I'd like to see them ramp Model 3 production, get the Y and F deep into development, then sell the automotive piece to Apple in about 2 years. Go into the gigafactory and energy services business.

 

[Sunshine State]

Another possibility.... it’s 2021 and school kids are reading on their VR headsets history of Tucker automobiles and other failed promising auto startups.

 

[electracity]

Is there any building footprint expansion going on at the gigafactory?

 

[strangecosmos]

It’s 2021. Tesla is producing cars at a rate of 2.5 million per year, across the Model Y, Model 3, Model X, and Model S. The Tesla pickup truck is also selling hundreds of thousands of units per year. In addition to these passenger vehicles, Tesla is also producing the Tesla Semi.

In 2020, Tesla launched the Tesla Network. In 2021, competitors are just now producing cars equipped with self-driving hardware since they waited for the price of lidar to fall. Tesla has established a foothold in the autonomous ride-hailing market, racking up an early data advantage, establishing customer loyalty and habit, and building out charging, service, and nighttime parking infrastructure. Tesla is also preparing to launch the Tesla Freight Network using its self-driving Tesla Semis.

With a combination of vehicle sales and the Tesla Network, Tesla is making cash hand over fist. It has the capital to build out Gigafactories for Powerpacks, solar panels, and Solar Roofs, to grow the energy business to massive global scale. The world will need trillions' worth of solar and batteries to transition power grids to sustainable energy.

Tesla also has the capital to build more car Gigafactories, but it is carefully weighing its options. Autonomous ride-hailing means demand for cars could plummet as cars become shared between multiple people. But the world will need as many as 400 million autonomous cars (1 for every 5 cars that exists today), and it wants to turn over the world fleet ASAP. Beyond that, a new generation of self-driving cars every 5 years would keep demand at 80 million cars per year for decades to come.

The point is now that scale of vehicle production is a choice. Tesla is now just trying to match supply with demand. Manufacturing scale is no longer an automatic disadvantage, since competitors may suffer from overcapacity. And they too are weighing the same options, since they are now investing in new manufacturing capacity for autonomous electric vehicles.

1 year later and this still makes sense to me. Although today I might put it in 2022 instead of 2021. Not sure.

 

[mspohr]

It’s 2021. Tesla is producing cars at a rate of 2.5 million per year, across the Model Y, Model 3, Model X, and Model S. The Tesla pickup truck is also selling hundreds of thousands of units per year. In addition to these passenger vehicles, Tesla is also producing the Tesla Semi.

In 2020, Tesla launched the Tesla Network. In 2021, competitors are just now producing cars equipped with self-driving hardware since they waited for the price of lidar to fall. Tesla has established a foothold in the autonomous ride-hailing market, racking up an early data advantage, establishing customer loyalty and habit, and building out charging, service, and nighttime parking infrastructure. Tesla is also preparing to launch the Tesla Freight Network using its self-driving Tesla Semis.

With a combination of vehicle sales and the Tesla Network, Tesla is making cash hand over fist. It has the capital to build out Gigafactories for Powerpacks, solar panels, and Solar Roofs, to grow the energy business to massive global scale. The world will need trillions' worth of solar and batteries to transition power grids to sustainable energy.

Tesla also has the capital to build more car Gigafactories, but it is carefully weighing its options. Autonomous ride-hailing means demand for cars could plummet as cars become shared between multiple people. But the world will need as many as 400 million autonomous cars (1 for every 5 cars that exists today), and it wants to turn over the world fleet ASAP. Beyond that, a new generation of self-driving cars every 5 years would keep demand at 80 million cars per year for decades to come.

The point is now that scale of vehicle production is a choice. Tesla is now just trying to match supply with demand. Manufacturing scale is no longer an automatic disadvantage, since competitors may suffer from overcapacity. And they too are weighing the same options, since they are now investing in new manufacturing capacity for autonomous electric vehicles.

Tesla has already won.

 

[CarlK]

Regardless of cost of LIDAR no other company could produce general autonomous driving cars like Tesla in 2020, 2021... or any foreseeable future. Those who are using LIDAR system, which is all of them, could only equip a few hundreds or few thousands test cars to put on roads in limited areas. On the other hand Tesla has already accumulated billions of miles of machine learning data so far. With hundreds of thousands of AP/FSD equipped cars out the there the gap will only be widening. Others could only shoot for certain specific tasks like campus transportation or area wide ride hailing but that's about the most they could ever do. Only Tesla will be able to provide you with a car that you can let it to drive itself anywhere in the country or in the world.

 

[mspohr]

Regardless of cost of LIDAR no other company could produce general autonomous driving cars like Tesla in 2020, 2021... or any foreseeable future. Those who are using LIDAR system, which is all of them, could only equip a few hundreds or few thousands test cars to put on roads in limited areas. On the other hand Tesla has already accumulated billions of miles of machine learning data so far. With hundreds of thousands of AP/FSD equipped cars out the there the gap will only be widening. Others could only shoot for certain specific tasks like campus transportation or area wide ride hailing but that's about the most they could ever do. Only Tesla will be able to provide you with a car that you can let it to drive itself anywhere in the country or in the world.

This is another example of how Tesla is far ahead of the competition. They have been making EVs for 16 years. Others are just starting to get a clue and are at least 5-10 years behind. Some are in denial thinking that they can just keep making ICE cars forever.
This race doesn't have a finish line but you just have to look at how far ahead Tesla is to see that it will be extremely difficult for anyone to catch them.