Post your autonomous driving predictions for 2023!

[diplomat33]

As we approach the end of 2022, it is almost that time to start thinking about 2023. So post your autonomous driving predictions for 2023!

Here are mine:

Waymo
Begins public road testing of the Geely driverless vehicle
Launches "trusted rider" driverless in LA
Expands driverless to south of downtown Phoenix to connect with Chandler area.
Expands public driverless to all of SF and gets permit for paid rides.
Removes safety driver in rain.
Announces plans for ride-hailing in new city after LA

Cruise
Begins public road testing of Origin
Expands public driverless to all of SF and 24/7. Scales to 500 driverless cars in SF.
Launches limited driverless in 2 other cities.

Zoox
Completes testing of Zoox driverless vehicle.
Launches limited driverless ride-hailing in Zoox vehicle (end of year).

Motional
Launches driverless in Las Vegas.

Mobileye
Announces SuperVision coming to US vehicles.
Expands SuperVision to more Zeekr vehicles.
Launches public driverless ride-hailing in Munich and/or Tel Aviv

Tesla
Deploys new "AP4" hardware with upgraded cameras, HD radar, and dedicated driver monitoring camera, on Model 3/S/X.
Reveals prototype of robotaxi driverless vehicle with AP4 hardware.
Releases L2 "hands-off/eyes on" FSD on highway for AP4 vehicles.

 

[ThomasD]

Waymo One Semi on Northern Routes and crossing State lines. Transporting goods into and out of the State of Texas. Waymo transporting limited passengers in Cold Weather States in Snow by December 2023

 

[jabloomf1230]

I defer to those who follow progress in autonomous vehicles more closely, so I won't make any predictions regarding specific manufacturers. However, I will predict that the weak economics of robotaxis will force one or more additional companies to either delay their robotaxi program or pull out entirely.

 

[CharleyBC]

I know this isn't what you meant, but when I first saw the title of this new thread, this was my instant reaction:

I predict that in 2023 this forum will be filled with enthusiastic people discussing things like whether this release of FSDß is better or worse than the previous one; what hardware needs to be added to make it work; what Elon said about when it will work; and, indeed, whether it will ever work. Extrapolation is easy.

 

[KArnold]

It will be interesting to watch the long haul battle for fully autonomous 18-wheelers between Tesla, Waymo, Kodiak, and Aurora. As far as I can tell, Tesla has the electric option but not autonomous in '24.

I'm most familiar with Aurora and am very bullish they will have L4 autonomy commercially without safety drivers next year. Plus this is their primary focus, which is unique to them and Kodiak. Waymo appears more focused on robotaxis and is likely to get conflicting priorities in their initiatives, with L4 trucking getting less resources than it needs.

So just for '23, I'd suggest the trucking industry will lean towards:

1. Aurora - essentially achieving what they they say with realistic schedules
2. Waymo - 2nd, just due to lack of focus on this segment
3. Kodiak - just don't seem that far along in their tech,
4. Tesla - at least from an autonomous perspective, although some will be attracted to the EV aspect as long as prices are not ridiculous

Beyind '23 is a coin toss - any of these could make themselves a leader but it's a tight market currently. My $.02.

 

[ThomasD]

Waymo contracting out to Medicare, Medicaid and the V A to transport older people and the disabled to and from medical appointments

 

[diplomat33]

I'm most familiar with Aurora and am very bullish they will have L4 autonomy commercially without safety drivers next year.

In their Sept update for Beta 4.0, Aurora mentions that they plan to be "feature complete" by end of Q1 2023 and complete the Aurora Driver Safety Case by end of 2023. I imagine Aurora would only launch a driverless commercial trucking service after they close the Aurora Driver Safety Case.

"In other words, the Aurora Driver will be able to autonomously navigate all of the common driving situations we expect it will encounter on our launch lane while hauling loads for Aurora customers. We expect to reach this stage at the end of the first quarter of 2023, at which time we would consider the Aurora Driver to be “feature complete.” For the rest of 2023, we expect to continue to improve performance and validate the Aurora Driver, and by the end of 2023 we expect to have closed the Aurora Driver Safety Case."

Eyes on the road(map): The Aurora Driver advances toward “feature complete” milestone | Aurora

Aurora Driver Beta 4.0 includes key capabilities to enable commercial launch

aurora.tech

So your prediction is bullish but not entirely unreasonable. If Aurora completes their safety case early, they could deploy a driverless commercial trucking service next year. But I think it is more likely that Aurora will complete their safety case late 2023 and launch a driverless commercial trucking service early 2024.

 

[Mark II]

I think Hyundai is the dark horse in the race. Just a matter of when. 2023 is too soon, but should keep an eye on them.

 

[jabloomf1230]

It will be interesting to watch the long haul battle for fully autonomous 18-wheelers between Tesla, Waymo, Kodiak, and Aurora. As far as I can tell, Tesla has the electric option but not autonomous in '24.

I'm most familiar with Aurora and am very bullish they will have L4 autonomy commercially without safety drivers next year. Plus this is their primary focus, which is unique to them and Kodiak. Waymo appears more focused on robotaxis and is likely to get conflicting priorities in their initiatives, with L4 trucking getting less resources than it needs.

So just for '23, I'd suggest the trucking industry will lean towards:

1. Aurora - essentially achieving what they they say with realistic schedules
2. Waymo - 2nd, just due to lack of focus on this segment
3. Kodiak - just don't seem that far along in their tech,
4. Tesla - at least from an autonomous perspective, although some will be attracted to the EV aspect as long as prices are not ridiculous

Beyind '23 is a coin toss - any of these could make themselves a leader but it's a tight market currently. My $.02.

I'm going to say almost the same thing about autonomous trucks as I said about robotaxis. The economic challenges are great and that will cause some companies to either scale back or leave the segment entirely. In addition, autonomous trucks are going to face a wider variety of regulatory hurdles than passenger cars. A rogue 80,000 lb truck can do a whole lot more damage than a car. One major blunder, and the media will have a field day

However, I'm far more bullish on electric trucks. The class 4/6 market is a gold mine and manufacturers will have trouble keeping up with demand. The class 8 segment is also lucrative, but other than Tesla, no one has demonstrated a 500 mile range semi. If Daimler has something up its sleeve with similar range, both companies will sell as many semis as can be produced. But to date, Daimler has only produced semis with less half the range of Tesla's. And Tesla hasn't demonstrated anything close to large scale production.

 

[Battpower]

What are thoughts about how Tesla will play HW3 development vs HW4?

Will they move all FSD onto HW4 albeit may be with different capabilities depending on host vehicle?

May be just marginalize HW3 as Legacy, and claim FSD b wide release covers their obligations at that level?

Or run two development tracks in parallel, presumably with HW4 some how aiming to exceed the levels of performance promised for HW3? In that case do they have resources to get HW3 FSD over the finish line as well as working on HW4?

Or will the same single stack support HW4 as well as legacy? Is HW4 architecture a fresh start or very similar to HW3 but with more processing capacity?

Any other options? What about existing cameras? Do they need to upgrade hardware to support TV / VO to meet existing HW3 commitments? Or is VO just an excuse to get around short term issues with the future looking like sensor fusion and new / better sensors? (only supported by HW4?)

 

[diplomat33]

What are thoughts about how Tesla will play HW3 development vs HW4?

Will they move all FSD onto HW4 albeit may be with different capabilities depending on host vehicle?

May be just marginalize HW3 as Legacy, and claim FSD b wide release covers their obligations at that level?

Or run two development tracks in parallel, presumably with HW4 some how aiming to exceed the levels of performance promised for HW3?

Any other options? What about existing cameras? Do they need to upgrade hardware to support TV / VO to meet existing HW3 commitments? Or is VO just an excuse to justify short term issues with the future looking like sensor fusion and new / better sensors?

I imagine Tesla can keep FSD on HW3 and just keep driver supervision with nags. And if HW4 improves performance significantly, Tesla might offer a "hands-free FSD" option for HW4 owners. If Tesla achieves FSD with no driver supervision with HW4, Tesla could even offer a "FSD with no driver supervision" option for HW4 owners. But I don't think they would do two different dev tracks. I think it will be the same track, just HW3 cars will have driver supervision and HW4 cars may see the nags reduced or removed at some point.

 

[Bladerskb]

I was right on my prediction for SF driverless deployment, i said "12-15 months" back in 2021 when they announced their full scale testing.

2023:
Paid Driverless Service in All of SF, 24/7
Launch Driverless In Rain
Launch Driverless On Highways
Expand Phoenix Geofence Even more (connect DT & East Valley, etc)
Driverless In LA by mid 2023, Paid Driverless Service in ~50 sq mile area in LA by EOY
Start Full Scale Testing in another city and deploy driverless in that city in 3-4 months.
4 total cities / 6 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

2024:
10-12 total cities / 18 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

2025:
20-25 total cities / 25 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

 

[nativewolf]

I defer to those who follow progress in autonomous vehicles more closely, so I won't make any predictions regarding specific manufacturers. However, I will predict that the weak economics of robotaxis will force one or more additional companies to either delay their robotaxi program or pull out entirely.

Best post so far. The economics are going to suck. This is going to rival the development of rail for being a capital destroying phenomena.

 

[diplomat33]

I was right on my prediction for SF driverless deployment, i said "12-15 months" back in 2021 when they announced their full scale testing.

2023:
Paid Driverless Service in All of SF, 24/7
Launch Driverless In Rain
Launch Driverless On Highways
Expand Phoenix Geofence Even more (connect DT & East Valley, etc)
Driverless In LA by mid 2023, Paid Driverless Service in ~50 sq mile area in LA by EOY
Start Full Scale Testing in another city and deploy driverless in that city in 3-4 months.
4 total cities / 6 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

2024:
10-12 total cities / 18 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

2025:
20-25 total cities / 25 distinct *sq mile areas with driverless service by EOY

Did you see Dolgov's thread? I think your predictions line up very well with his update.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606053390026276866

 

[hgmichna]

With FSD now costing $15,000, perhaps Tesla could do a hardware upgrade only for cars with FSD.

A half-hearted prediction. I'm not sure.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Best post so far. The economics are going to suck. This is going to rival the development of rail for being a capital destroying phenomena.

Here's one of many cost summaries for individual Uber and Lyft drivers:

https://www.ridester.com/uber-lyft-driver-costs-and-expenses/

 

[nativewolf]

Yeah the whole ride share data has exposed how little profit there is going to be once 3-4 robotaxi fleets start operating in a city. There will be nearly 0 profit. The idea that Tesla is going to make a fortune with robotaxis is just something that has no basis.

I do believe that if Tesla can really crack self driving that people would gladly pay a premium to have their car drive them while they talk to the kids, do work, watch a movie, or smoke a joint, or take the kids to youth soccer, etc etc. A self driving car for a hundred or two a month? Sign me up. Robotaxi as a profit driver...only a whacknut like cathy woods could imagine that.

 

[CharleyBC]

There will be nearly 0 profit. The idea that Tesla is going to make a fortune with robotaxis is just something that has no basis.

I seem to recall Elon saying we'd each make $30K a year hiring out our cars as robotaxis. I am not basing my financial planning on this income stream!

 

[Dewg]

I seem to recall Elon saying we'd each make $30K a year hiring out our cars as robotaxis. I am not basing my financial planning on this income stream!

Can we all sue for $30k a year for the life of the cars if we don't get robotaxis? 10 year life, that's $300k for everyone that bought FSD?

 

[zoomer0056]

No prediction, but I wonder how thieves and this new prey will evolve together.