Post your VIN if it's lower than 20,000; AND if your delivery is in Q4 2013 or later.

[Benz]

Post your VIN if it's lower than 20,000; AND if your delivery is in Q4 2013 or later.

 

[Hasse]

I will if you tell me why

 

[Benz]

Well, it's regarding the number of Tesla Model S deliveries in Q3 2013 (prior to the Earnings Call in November 2013). The more info you have at your disposal, that will result in a better estimate of the number of Tesla Model S deliveries in Q3 2013.

 

[Hasse]

I am 19034. Expecting delivery in 1 1/2 months. I think VIN:s are assigned a bit random on purpose though.

 

[Discoducky]

I've been spelunking around the forum...So it looks like the US is getting VIN's around 22000 to 23000 right now. UK is getting 14000 to 17000 (much wider range) and it is probably due to ramp up issues.

If I take the highest VIN delivered in Q2 (that I could find) of 14500 against the highest VIN from Q3 of 23000 that would be 8500 or lowest of 13200 and 22000 that would be 6800 Minus all non-US in transit (not delivered) and 'store' cars (not configured by buyers) of which I'M GUESSING about 2000 (4 weeks of production out of 12 not including the week off in July) + the production that was delivered from Q2 (500 maybe) and accounting for anomalies....

Regardless, there is a significant delta due to the shipping time and final configuration in Netherlands, then shipping to the customers country and scheduling final delivery. Something like a 2 month delay I'm guessing in increments of 1000 cars shipped.

What this seems to mean for Q3 is about 5600 to 6200 cars delivered is my guess.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Good work, Discoducky. 5,500+ sounds plausible. 6000+ would be an even better sounding number for Wall St. With a good chunk of Euro Sigs delivered and a lot of P85(+) in there too, this portends to be a good Q3, earnings-wise.

 

[KaJu74]

VIN 191xx, delivery Late December. Hopefully :redface:

 

[yobigd20]

Post your VIN if it's lower than 20,000; AND if your delivery is in Q4 2013 o...

If I take the highest VIN delivered in Q2 (that I could find) of 14500 against the highest VIN from Q3 of 23000 that would be 8500 or lowest of 13200 and 22000 that would be 6800 Minus all non-US in transit (not delivered) and 'store' cars (not configured by buyers) of which I'M GUESSING about 2000 (4 weeks of production out of 12 not including the week off in July) + the production that was delivered from Q2 (500 maybe) and accounting for anomalies....

I wouldn't necessarily subtract those store cars. Tesla's been really big on pushing to sell them all by the end of the quarter. Last Friday Queens had about 12 of them. 2 days later, by Monday, all of them had been sold (thus no more loaners available). They even called people who were driving the loaners to bring them back because they were now sold to someone. Also these test drive events they've been doing over the last few weeks were also "drive away" events. If you liked it, you bought it on the spot and drove it home. I wouldn't be surprised if their quarter numbers are much higher than everyone else thinks including your numbers.

 

[yobigd20]

Also keep in mind that most if not all of these loaners sold were fully loaded P85's post-price increase. So their profit margins are going to be much higher this quarter.

 

[nlc]

VIN 192xx, choose late December delivery when I confirmed the order 7/12/2013. But I am afraid it will be January or February.
(France)

 

[Benz]

I think that there are not that many VIN's lower than 20,000 which still will have to be delivered in Q4 2013 or even in 2014. Maybe a few hundred. And that is a good sign. I really think that we are in for a positive surprise when the Q3 2013 will be published.