alseTrick
Active Member
I don't follow. None of Tesla's current models are inexpensive. And none are produced at >250k/year. Tesla doesn't even make 80k total vehicles/year.
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I don't follow. None of Tesla's current models are inexpensive. And none are produced at >250k/year. Tesla doesn't even make 80k total vehicles/year.
Tesla produced over 80k vehicles last year. Barely (~84k). They didn't deliver them all, but they made them.
Not yet, and that's part of why a lot of people are interested in BEV's but very few buy them.
When I say Tesla is the only viable one right now they're the only ones taking orders for anything that the majority can afford. Sure they won't deliver them for awhile but at least I can order it if I choose to. Plus the pre-orders act to keep people from buying another car that isn't an electric.
Now I don't know what production/sales numbers they'll hit, but I sure hope they hit 250K a year worldwide.
That 250K might be a little excessively high I admit. I just threw that number out there. The Prius hybrid generally sells around 140K units in the US.
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This is elementary economics - no magic required. The the reason that GM EV-certified service techs aren't ubiquitous across the country is that there is not currently a return-on-invest to be realized by said investment -- but I think we can agree that if/when the market indicates, then the task of training/certifying staff in already existing service centers is more easily accomplished (read "cheaper") than building/staffing new service centers from scratch.
dhrivnak
Active Member
As both a Volt and Tesla owner I can vouch that the Volt is a very viable car. While the Volt has not broken sales records it has been a decent selling car, out selling the Model S so far by 16%. What Tesla has done is just short of AWESOME and they have definitely moved the needle on EV's. Without Tesla it is very doubtful there would be a Volt or a Bolt. But to say GM is not trying is just not true. It is also true they could try harder as well.
Model S Volt
2017 900 1,611
2016 29,421 24,739
2015 25,202 15,393
2014 16,689 18,808
2013 17,650 23,094
2012 2,650 23,461
totals 92,512 107,106 116%
Source INSIDEEVS.com
alseTrick
Active Member
No, you cannot order a Model 3 "right now". No, the $1,000 doesn't prohibit you from buying a different car, be it ice or electric.
alseTrick
Active Member
Is that how many were sold this year plus those en route to be delivered, since that would also include 2015-made vehicles? Or is that how many were actually manufactured?
EVs are not yet big sellers because the average 'car as an appliance' buyer sees no reason to buy one. Gas is cheap, electricity is strange, EV's are pricey.
Many new technologies need a killer app to get them started. A unique purpose to buy this new device that you cannot get any other way.
Elon had the right idea with AutoPilot, which is indeed a Killer App. The best driver's convenience aid, you need to buy an EV (specifically a Tesla) to get it. However, the ICE cars will have similar systems in the next year it seems.
What could be another Killer App be for an EV? How about transforming the HOV lanes into EV lanes. You want to get to work on time? Get an EV dammit! 4 people want to get to work on time? Carpool in an EV.
This will probably do more for EV adoption in California and other overcrowded areas that state-based rebates. Today, the HOV lanes are often crowded anyhow. And it's too hard to tell who is cheating. Right now, it's pretty easy to spot an EV, and since there are so few, you'll fly down stopped freeways.
With the Tesla I felt like they hit the trifecta when it came things that pulled me in.
The Drive train - Once you try an EV drive train it's hard to go back. That's why the success of the Volt is so critical to the success of EV's. The Volt acts like a gateway drug for people too nervous about fully switching over.
The Superchargers - I don't know of any other charging network where there are up to 10 stalls (even more in some locations being built) where you can charge. Where the charging is as simple as plugging in, and walking away.
Autopilot - With the Bolt I think GM really screwed up in not having adaptive cruise control. For a lot of us adaptive cruise control is 90% of what AP1 offers. If I had known it didn't have adaptive cruise control I wouldn't have questioned whether GM/Dealers would treat it like compliance car. Rumor has it that it will have adaptive cruise control in 2018.
Sure there are other niceties like being able to turn on the heat before you get into the car, and camper mode. Or things really only important for extremely lazy people like me. Like not having to go to the gas station before work. But, it's really the trifecta of those three major reasons that separates the Tesla from an ICE car.
I'm not sure if it's going to be a killer App (like autonomous driving since it fits so nicely with an EV), or if it's going to be a critical mass kind of thing. Humans tend to be followers where we do what other people do.
alseTrick
Active Member
Apparently leaving off "pre-" was a bad omission on my part.
Even with "pre-" your statement is incorrect.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Not really. His criteria for a viable BEV is one that has a large planned annual volume of 250k (later adjusted to something more reasonable like Prius-matching 140k). The Model 3 would fit that criteria if talking about preorders.
The initial projected Tesla volume by 2020 is 500k annually total (including S/X). A rough product split would easily have the Model 3 taking half of that (although you may quibble about Model Y). That volume projection has since been increased to 1 million. But besides from just projections, the paid preorders are roughly 400k, so it's different from companies that just write some projections on paper with no indicator of demand.
Of course you can argue if that is reasonable criteria in the first place.
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alseTrick
Active Member
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Uhm... No. The BOLT didn't even outsell the VOLT in January 2017.
January 2017 U.S. Sales
1162 ___ Chevrolet BOLT
1611 ___ Chevrolet VOLT
1200 ___ Tesla Model S
1000 ___ Tesla Model X
1162 ___ Chevrolet BOLT
1611 ___ Chevrolet VOLT
1200 ___ Tesla Model S
1000 ___ Tesla Model X
January's sales of BOLT are an improvement over December 2016, when they sold only 579 units. That same month, there were 3,691 VOLT, 3,300 Model X, and 5,300 Model S sold in the U.S. Yes. It is 'very early in the year' and most of the time fewer vehicles are sold in January than in the preceding December no matter the brand. Any questions?
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well tell that to the ~400k that put in $1000 each to pre-order one (including me). Note that pre-orders do not require full payment and can be refundable/cancellable. Some pre-ordering systems don't even need any payment at all upfront, although there usually is some sort of monetary collateral (for example they have your credit card number that they can charge when they ship the item). It's not really that common for cars, but most common for video games.
In-store Pre-order FAQs - Best Buy Support
Amazon.com: Questions And Answers: How does the pre-order work?
I believe the Bolt had a couple thousand pre-orders in Norway too (although unpaid). The pricing and options were only recently released, but the pre-orders opened well before then (similar to how Tesla does things).
Tesla cancels contract with Model 3 supplier = delayed launch?
Maybe you are making a distinction about confirmed orders with full payment.
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Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Minor correction... Per JB Straubel, the goal was for 500,000 of their Generation III vehicle alone by 2020 initially. The Model S and Model X would be above and beyond that amount. Check this video, around the 13:40 mark to hear what he says about it.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Interesting. I typically use the numbers from GoodCarBadCar, and throw out the totals from 2012, so that I can compare only full calendar year totals. The results are a bit different that way.
________ Model S ___ VOLT
2013 ___ 18,195 ____ 23,094
2014 ___ 16,550 ____ 18,805
2015 ___ 26,400 ____ 15,393
2016 ___ 29,156 ____ 24,739
TOTALS _ 90,301 ____ 82,031
2013 ___ 18,195 ____ 23,094
2014 ___ 16,550 ____ 18,805
2015 ___ 26,400 ____ 15,393
2016 ___ 29,156 ____ 24,739
TOTALS _ 90,301 ____ 82,031
There. That looks better.
The situation as I understand it:
ACC first appeared on the GM EV lineup with the ELR Cadillac, which was discontinued after 2016.
The 2016 Volt did not have ACC at first, but it was a very, very short run. The 2017 Volt did include it.
GM had been working on semi-autonomy for Cadillac since 2014, and it was targeted for released in late 2015.
However, the nature of the system, which actually detects if the driver is alert and watching the road, was too autonomous for the NHTSA. So it was postponed and resubmitted.
SOOOO... The best guess based on history, is that the same postponement that hampered the Cadillac system, hampered the Bolt EV system. We should know in a few months.
While the Bolt could have easily had the existing the 2017 Volt ACC system, it does have all the hardware and then some, I am betting it will ship with the second generation of ACC with semi-autonomy.
alseTrick
Active Member
1) You haven't ordered your 3 yet. Nor have I. Nobody has.
2) All you've done is put down a small payment to reserve an unspecified place in line that should eventually allow you to order your 3 in the future. Shirley you don't think 64,000 people ordered the FF 91 already.
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