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Potential BOLT customers being suctioned up by Tesla !

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Quant, Apr 2, 2016.

  1. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    What I think doesn't matter, what they do matters. I don't understand the proclivity of people optimistic of the Bolt to continually mention remarks such as the 50k possibility, while making arguments as to why they won't actually produce them.

    There are many reasons GM sells the amount of Volts that they have, and it's not simply because the market can't support more. Tesla has garnered hundreds of thousands of reservations, so we can dispense with the idea that there is some 30k limit in the marketplace.
     
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  2. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    I am very optimistic about the long term future of electromotive drivetrain technology in private automobiles.

    I do think the global Bolt demand will be 50k units. Perhaps more. And I do believe in the US, it will not be hard to find a Bolt EV in September, when the 2018 MY cars hit showrooms.

    US demand for utilitarian EVs will climb each year. I just doubt it will double each year. I'm guessing 33% increase in US sales for 2017. Unless there is another huge jump in gas prices again of course.

    If GM sells 33% more plugins in 2017, that is 40,000 total. I'd say 25k Bolts, and 15k Volts/CT6. But the euro market is growing quicker than the US market. I can see 1/2 the production end up in Europe, so 50k Bolt/AmperaE total for 2017.
     
  3. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    If the Leaf can sell 30k per year in the US, then it should be trivial for the Bolt to do so worldwide, much less US only. If they are as serious as they hyped the car up to be (a vehicle that shows the future of GM), 100k worldwide per year should be a typical target volume.

    Of course, I think the issue is actually their dealer network and marketing (including the market position of the vehicle) is holding them back. On paper, the Volt should be able to sell in similar volumes, but sales haven't exactly been as high as they want and GM has to continually rely on extensive factory rebates to move vehicles. So GM wants to be cautious and not commit as much (not all-in as the hype suggests). Sometimes that attitude ends up self-fulfilling however (by not committing as much volume, this increases unit prices, which pushes down sales).
     
  4. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    #224 McRat, Feb 14, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2017
    So you believe General Motors could increase their global plug-in sales by 300% in a single year? OK. I'll go with 117%. Let's see who is closer next January.

    Do you believe Nissan or Tesla will triple global sales for 2017? If not, why not? One is a dealership model and the other is not.

    PS - Nissan sold 49k Leafs globally in 2016, so that's 147,000 for 2017, or double 2016 Tesla global production (80k?) Will Tesla produce 240,000 (20k per month) this year?
     
  5. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    You seem to use a different yardstick depending on badging, instead of basing sales on buyers. I simply do not think any existing (3 years of retail sales) EV company will triple their sales in 2017.
     
  6. alseTrick

    alseTrick Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  7. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    This is the part where I remind participants here that Elon Musk's tweet from September 2, 2015 used the word 'preorders'.

    Elon Musk on Twitter
     
  8. jgillispie

    jgillispie Member

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    The Leaf is now obsolete compared to it's EV competition both in specs and price. The new version wont be hitting the market til 2018 from what I've read. Tesla very well could increase their global sales by 300% but in 2018, not 2017.

    I'm expecting 50% EV growth in 2017 for US sales. January was up 70% for the year before already.

    2016 was 37% higher than 2015 and the market will have a full years sales for the Bolt and partial sales of the Ioniq and hopefully Mode 3.
     
  9. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    I said target volume, not actual volume produced in first year, which will vary base on ramping of the factories (and other unforeseen delays and issues).

    I don't remember the exact numbers, but when they were preparing for the Leaf launch, Nissan had the infrastructure set up to manufacture about 100k EVs. That shows some serious commitment.

    GM's equivalent number so far is 30-50k.

    As per percentage comparison, I don't think it is relevant. Nissan had no EVs when they launched the Leaf, so would their number be infinite percent?
     
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  10. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that. I believe that proves my point. I did not order a Model 3 yet, but I certainly did pre-order one.
     
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  11. alseTrick

    alseTrick Member

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    Well look at that. I guess you win.

    Wait. Whaaat.

    Musk also calls them "orders", which you say are distinct from "pre-orders"? No way.

    Wait. He also calls them "reservations"? How dare he!

    Elon Musk on Twitter
    Elon Musk on Twitter
     
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  12. Jeff N

    Jeff N Active Member

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    I'm in the middle of my first major road trip in my Bolt EV. Honestly, the DC charging experience has not been much different from my experience driving an S85 to Las Vegas from San Francisco. This time I'm driving the Bolt to San Diego from SF and back.

    I did about 440 miles on the first day from SF to LA and charged at Salinas, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura. The charging at Salinas and SLO were ideal in that the car was done almost exactly when I was otherwise ready to hit the road again (aside from having to restart the 30 minute EVgo charging timer). Ventura was an unplanned stop. I had planned to charge while eating dinner with local family but ended up driving to another location without charging. So, I ended up adding some charge in the evening while doing some minor shopping at the nearby supermarket.

    I'm now up over 900 miles and still in SoCal. My LA hotel was supposed to have overnight L2 charging but renovation work prevented using them. So, more DC charging in the morning while sipping coffee at Starbucks. Actually, a pleasant enough start to the morning.

    Compared to the Model S road trip to Las Vegas this trip feels similar in convenience. I had to wait a few minutes for a charge on the last leg of driving yesterday. I similarly had to wait for a charging space on my way home from Vegas.

    The big win on driving the Bolt EV is the accelerator controls. The Bolt's "one pedal" experience is smooth, elegantly implemented and addictive vs. having to use the Tesla brake pedal to come to a complete stop. Another area is the conventional cruise control. Adjusting speeds up or down and engaging or disengaging are smooth whereas the Signature P85 was jerky and abrupt. Granted, a newer S would have TACC/AutoSteer and I didn't get to experience that.
     
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  13. jgillispie

    jgillispie Member

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    Have they fixed the Bolt showing chargers it can't use? Or was that only on the website?
     
  14. Jeff N

    Jeff N Active Member

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    Only on the website, apparently, according to what I read from others. I never bothered to verify it myself.
     
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  15. Maximilien

    Maximilien Member

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    Thanks for the clarification. The Bolt sounds quite amazing considering it is half the cost of the Model S 60.
     
  16. mknox

    mknox Well-Known Member

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    Haven't read the whole thread, but let me respond to the OP's assertion that Tesla is scooping up potential Bolt buyers with my own thoughts:

    First of all, I have a Model S 85 and a reservation deposit on a 3. I am toying with the idea of replacing our 10 year old Pontiac Vibe, which has actually been a great car and my wife loves it. Here is my problem: my wife and our friends have trouble getting in and out of the Model S and when we go out, we usually take someone else's car for this reason. Our Vibe sits a bit higher, and my wife has no trouble with it. The Bolt has a very similar form factor to the Vibe, and my wife would find it much easier to use than the lower sitting Model 3. (speculation, of course, because I haven't been in a Model 3 yet). On top of this, I very much prefer the very practical hatchback design on smaller cars than small coupes and sedans. So for this reason, I'm leaning towards bailing on the 3 and going for a Bolt. I wish Tesla had come out with the much speculated Model Y (Model 3 based mini SUV) first as I think it would have had a lot more appeal.
     
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  17. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    In that case Musk uses all three terms interchangeable so all three are "correct" :p.
     
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    2017 is a unique year for Bolt with Leaf 2 and Model 3 not yet out. That's the positive side.

    But, Bolt is a small car that even people like me living with a smallish Leaf for 6 years are hesitating to buy. Then there are reports of painful seats.

    Given these, it would be difficult to estimate a medium/long term volume for Bolt. Even if they sell a lot in 2017, will they sustain that level in in '18 and beyond once the competition heats up ? Afterall volume commitment from GM can't be for just one year.

    I expect Bolt to sell in about the same number as Volt - 25k to 30k each in US for a total of 50k to 60k in 2017 in US.
     
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  19. mknox

    mknox Well-Known Member

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    I have volunteered to take people for test drives in a number of EVs at this year's Toronto International Auto Show. Hope to get some good drive time in the Bolt and see for myself.
     
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  20. CuriousG

    CuriousG Member

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    Volt users haven't gotten the memo yet.

    upload_2017-2-16_10-57-57.png
     
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