Potential BOLT customers being suctioned up by Tesla !

[postpast]

Of first time BEV buyers, what percentage would choose the Bolt over the Model3?

I can see those already in the EV world considering them. But the supercharger network is huge peace of mind to someone who isn't already versed in charging options. Switching to EV is a big leap for most people - and a new way of thinking in terms of refueling.

Our model S is our first EV - because it was the first one that made sense to us since our commutes are long. Supercharging was a main selling feature. If I had to figure out public stations for my 200mile commute, I probably would have dismissed an EV as my next car, thinking the network just wasn't there yet.

I will likely get a model 3 around 2020 ( with unknown Cdn dollar and delivery, I don't see a point in pre ordering). I have however convinced my mother to get a Bolt as it is far Superior for her uses. She has two other cars used for road trips, uses and need a hatchback and is so not technology forward that she gets mad at her IPad for being hard to use.

The Model 3's technology and design forward approach (as exampled by the lack of IP, buttons and hatch) are going to miss a lot of the market who will want a conventional car experience with electric drive. Also for multiple car households, which around here is everyone, supercharging doesn't seem a huge factor.

 

[Bimbels]

I will likely get a model 3 around 2020 ( with unknown Cdn dollar and delivery, I don't see a point in pre ordering). I have however convinced my mother to get a Bolt as it is far Superior for her uses. She has two other cars used for road trips, uses and need a hatchback and is so not technology forward that she gets mad at her IPad for being hard to use.

The Model 3's technology and design forward approach (as exampled by the lack of IP, buttons and hatch) are going to miss a lot of the market who will want a conventional car experience with electric drive. Also for multiple car households, which around here is everyone, supercharging doesn't seem a huge factor.

Good points. I can't see my mom driving a Model 3 yet - she just learned how to post a photo to Facebook. She did however marvel at our Model S when she was up for a visit and finally got to ride in it. (She was afraid to drive it. ha.) She's single and an EV would be her only car, so for her switching, she would need to have the perception of familiarity. However, she would never drive a Chevy. She's been a honda/toyota owner for at least 30 years. Her perception of the Chevy brand isn't so great.

 

[diamond.g]

I thought about getting a Bolt. Changed my mind after GM said there would be no SuperCruise (their version of AP) in the vehicle. For the price you would think it would include the option... I suspect 30k is where they actually want to price the vehicle (much like they always advertised a lower Volt price) and will eventually (in a few years) price it that way. Especially if it doesn't sell well initially.

 

[scaesare]

The Bolt has one huge advantage over the 3; a year and a half head start. I assume Chevy has.actually started to build them, thus demonstrating they can deliver them.

Don't get me wrong, I've drunk the Tesla Kool Aid and have put my deposit in but, not everyone who wants a reasonably priced EV w/decent range wants to wait a year and a half plus, and the Bolt will be available way sooner.

Except, I think the problem is GM's planned production numbers.

Although the Bolt will be available way sooner, "everyone" who's interested in "a reasonably priced EV w/decent range" isn't going to be able to get their hands on one before the Model 3.

As a matter of fact, it appers likely that there will be 300K(+) Model 3 orders by the time the weekend is out. That's 10X GM's planned ~30K Bolt units built per year.

So the vast majority of interested folks would have to wait just as long for the Bolt as for the Model 3. Or perhaps even longer... as GM's constraint is LG's supply. And with Tesla already having a jump with the Gigafactory, they are likely in a position to ramp up to 100's of thousands of units a year faster than GM can.... even if they wanted to, which there is some reason to doubt.

I suspect the bottom line is tat GM's first mover advantage is going to be largely nullfied by overall inability to fulfill demand (although I suspect the demand is far less than the Model 3), and thus it's not really a competition. GM could very well sell every Bolt thy build (and I rather hope they do) but this market segment will have far more Model 3's in it after a very short time.

And now for my ironically humorous illustration: It's kind of like getting a 2-step jump on Usain Bolt at the starting line of a foot race.. enjoy it while you can, because it aint' gonna last.

 

[jbcarioca]

The worst thing about this for CCS is that the Supercharger coverage is actually a *superset* of the CCS coverage. Which incidentally means Tesla has no reason to make a CCS adapter yet.

Tesla made a Chademo adapter because there are areas with lots of Chademo and no Superchargers. Unless CCS starts planting stations in Maritime Canada or West Texas or Arkansas or North Dakota, CCS has no advantages.

[/QUOTE]
Except that Tesla joined the CCS coalition in February. The evolution of CCS2 will end out being very useful to Tesla in less than two years time, especially in the EU, but elsewhere too. Superchargers will still grow, Destination chargers too, but the more charging infrastructure, the better. We'll have a CCS adapter within a few months IMHO

 

[dsm363]

The Bolt does have J1772 CCS capability. That's "fast charging" capability by most definitions. Sure, it's not as fast as a Supercharger, and the infrastructure isn't as widespread, but it's not like you're only stuck with Level 2 AC charging with the Bolt.

Does GM have a plan to our CCS stations inbetween population centers where they currently don't have many customers so that they can travel? That's what he was referring to I believe.

 

[SageBrush]

Toyota's Prius received a lot of FUD through years..

They certainly did, and a large part of it, both paid and from the horse's mouth, was GM.

For that and other reasons, I will never buy a GM.

 

[LobosPac]

I really have no idea why many people would choose the Bolt over the Volt, at this point in time. Especially if they're interested in the M3.

I second that. I bought a Volt in 2014 as a stopgap until my MX was delivered. And I'm keeping it until I get an M3.

 

[Jeff N]

Volt owners should be more worried about GM's ability to survive.

GM is simply in between bankruptcies.

I suppose that line is still good for a laugh but that's about it. GM went bankrupt because we had the worst recession since the 1930s, the corporate debt issuance market suddenly froze, and new car sales suddenly plunged.

Since then they have a new line of small cars that customers actually buy (better for future recessions or gas price spikes), lower debt load, competitive hybrid powertrain options, and competitive plugin powertrain options.

The chances of another GM bankruptcy anytime soon are quite small.

 

[Jeff N]

I can't see any reason why you would buy the Bolt over the Model 3...

Hatchback storage access? Availability a couple of years earlier for non-Tesla owners and without maxing out options? Apple CarPlay and Android Auto? Initial reliability concerns?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Hatchback storage access? Availability a couple of years earlier for non-Tesla owners and without maxing out options? Initial reliability concerns?

Then buy a Volt. So, why buy a Bolt over a Model 3, or a Volt?

I also question whether the general public considers GM to be particularly reliable...

 

[Jeff N]

If I had to figure out public stations for my 200mile commute, I probably would have dismissed an EV as my next car, thinking the network just wasn't there yet.

How many people have 200 mile commutes?

I have an unusually long commute and it is "only" about 100 miles a day. I would be able to easily do my commute any time of the year in the Bolt EV while only charging at home overnight on my utility's low-carbon renewable plan and without having to rely on daytime access to charging stations away from home.

Plus I could easily throw my bike in the car and drive anywhere in my metro area (SF Bay Area) to go biking on the weekend. I can't do that in a Model 3 without an external bike rack of some kind.

There are already adequate CCS stations in my region and the same is true for Los Angeles and various other major west coast cities where a large fraction of EVs are sold today.

The Model 3 is obviously going to be a great match for lots of people but folks here should stop pretending there is no possible reason to get a Bolt instead.

 

[Jeff N]

Then buy a Volt. So, why buy a Bolt over a Model 3, or a Volt?

I already have a Volt. I'm looking for a 200+ mile EV to replace my 13 year old Prius in my family's 2 car garage. My Volt already has 125,000 miles on it so it will become the backup car that is driven less often.

As I mentioned in another reply, I have a ~100 mile daily commute. Today I can drive on battery to work but then have to do a full recharge there plus burn a little gas on the way home since the last couple of miles are uphill. I'm looking for a car that I can commute with and just charge at home overnight.

 

[Bimbels]

How many people have 200 mile commutes?

I have an unusually long commute and it is "only" about 100 miles a day. I would be able to easily do my commute any time of the year in the Bolt EV while only charging at home overnight on my utility's low-carbon renewable plan and without have to rely on daytime access to charging stations away from home.

Plus I could easily throw my bike in the car and drive anywhere in my metro area (SF Bay Area) to go biking on the weekend. I can't do that in a Model 3 without an external bike rack of some kind.

There are already adequate CCS stations in my region and the same is true for Los Angeles and various other major west coast cities where a large fraction of EVs are sold today.

The Model 3 is obviously going to be a great match for lots of people but folks here should stop pretending there is no possible reason to get a Bolt instead.

Not many people have 200mile commutes - granted - and I don't do it every day. Once a week I drive 200 miles to get to work. A few days later I drive home.

California is a different beast. Much more progressive when it comes to EVs in general and so I am guessing charging options are more plentiful. Is it not CA that has legislated that new parking structures and lots install EV charging, and that condos/apts must allow "reasonable" charging in their buildings? That is not the case in most of the country. I would say Californians in general are more open to EVs than the majority of the country, and as such Californians are ahead of the rest of the country in terms of being ready to switch over from ICE.

My only point is that for most people today, they haven't begun to consider switching over to EVs. If they've given it a passing thought, they assume (because they haven't taken the time to research) that it's going to be a PITA. So they stick with the status quo. Which is why the supercharger network is so huge in getting people to consider switching. It takes much of the thought out of the decision. They'll make the decision and then learn later about other options as their travel plans require it.

I work in a base of about 5K coworkers. I am the only one who drives a Tesla, and I have not seen one other BEV in our employee lot. My car obviously has a lot of people talking and so I get lots of questions. They have NO idea how any of it works. When I tell them how long my drive is and how easy the superchargers are for my route, I can see their brains trying to process it lol. The same is true for my town - where there is 1 other Tesla (that I know of.) While our friends were all intrigued by Tesla, they'd never considered any other EV because of range issues - but Tesla was out of their price range. Even now, with them knowing and loving our car I don't think a single one plunked down the deposit for the 3. I expect that will change once I get mine, though.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I already have a Volt. I'm looking for a 200+ mile EV to replace my 13 year old Prius in my family's 2 car garage. My Volt already has 125,000 miles on it so it will become the backup car that is driven less often.

As I mentioned in another reply, I have a ~100 mile daily commute. Today I can drive on battery to work but then have to do a full recharge there plus burn a little gas on the way home since the last couple of miles are uphill. I'm looking for a car that I can commute with and just charge at home overnight.

Right, so you already have a Volt, and you have a 100 mile commute. So, you're using the Bolt as a 2nd car. Your 100 mile commute puts you in a very small minority of people, according to US statistics.

So, the majority of consumers that don't have a Volt, would be better served purchasing a Volt, over the Bolt. If someone absolutely needs a commuter car for a 100 mile commute, and can't charge at work, the Bolt might make sense. However, this is still a minority of consumers.

 

[TexasEV]

Except that Tesla joined the CCS coalition in February. The evolution of CCS2 will end out being very useful to Tesla in less than two years time, especially in the EU, but elsewhere too. Superchargers will still grow, Destination chargers too, but the more charging infrastructure, the better. We'll have a CCS adapter within a few months IMHO[/QUOTE]
I think you may be making too much out of this. Joining a CCS coalition doesn't necessarily mean Tesla is going to use CCS.

 

[Jeff N]

I work in a base of about 5K coworkers. I am the only one who drives a Tesla, and I have not seen one other BEV in our employee lot. My car obviously has a lot of people talking and so I get lots of questions. They have NO idea how any of it works. When I tell them how long my drive is and how easy the superchargers are for my route, I can see their brains trying to process it lol.

These ought to be potential Volt customers or, as I like to think of it, the EV that comes with training wheels.

Some people have the fortitude to switch directly from a conventional gas guzzler to an EV but I expect many will want to take baby steps and get a Volt or maybe even a non-plug hybrid first.

 

[Quant]

Folks, the point of this thread was IF Model 3 garners say 500 K or more reservations/preorders, what does it say about the immediate size of the market for the BOLT , since it will only rollout to the US market, at least initially with no announced plans by Chevy to launch it in Europe or Asia.

I mean, is there really a much larger set of current potential customers for an EV in the approximately $40 K ( with options) price range in the US ? IF so, how many more ?

I think the above combined with battery pack availability will be a limiting factor for Chevy.

Also, I believe Chevy will actually lose money on the BOLT at this price point , since they have to pay LG a lot more for the batteries and infotainment technology unlike Tesla who will make them in house for a lot less.

Additionally, there is the complication of sharing revenues with the dealer network and the lack of a financial incentive for a Chevy dealer to sell BOLT's, relative to ICE cars on their lots which will bring in a lot more service department revenues.

 

[techmaven]

Actually, I just realized that because the Bolt EV is likely a bit more efficient than the S60, the Bolt will apparently charge at least as fast as the S60 in mileage terms.

Even though the S60 charges over 200A from empty for the first 8 minutes it ends up adding only 145 km or 90 miles in the first 30 minutes on the Bjorn video when it is charging at its fastest kW rates.

GM claims the Bolt EV will charge the same 90 miles also in 30 minutes on CCS. At higher states of charge the kW rate is ramping down on the S60 so this implies that the Bolt EV charges on CCS at least as fast as an S60 on a Supercharger in mileage terms.

Even assuming the Bolt is somewhat more efficient than the S60, this may imply that the Bolt EV charges at a somewhat higher peak rate than 50 kW and at voltages well under 400V so that in turn essentially confirms that the Bolt EV will take advantage of amperage rates reached only under the CCS 200A specification.

It is not a given that the Bolt is more efficient than the Model S 60 where range matters most - long distance highway trips. Look at the EPA comparison between the Model S 60, the Nissan Leaf 30 kWh, and the BMW i3:
Compare Side-by-Side

The highway ratings are 97, 101, and 111 respectively. Now, the EPA highway rating is based on an average speed of 48.3 mph:
Detailed Test Information

The aerodynamics of the Leaf versus the Tesla:
https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/the-slipperiest-car-on-the-road.pdf

A Tesla Model S 60 likely has better efficiency than a Leaf at 60 mph+, with the difference becoming quite stark at real highway speeds 70+mph.

The Bolt is heavier than the Leaf. It has worse aerodynamics than the Leaf:
Car and Driver

0.312 Cd, 25.8 sq ft frontal area, 8.05 CDa as compared to 7.8 in the Leaf and 6.2 in the Model S.

A Bolt is likely significantly worse than 101 MPGe highway as a result, and at 70+ mph, it would be much worse than a Leaf much less a Model S.

If you look at Kman auto's 60 kWh Supercharging from dead, he picked up 123 miles in 30 minutes. Real world is variable due to a number of conditions, I assume the Bolt's spec number is an ideal number.

 

[Zoomit]

techmaven's data and conclusions are spot on. The Bolt EV's higher Cd due to the hatchback body style means it's more intended as an urban runabout car, whereas the Model 3's lower Cd give's it much better high speed efficiency, which is better for long range cruising.

The highway EPA numbers, when they're available, won't tell the story since even that test is at such a low average speed (48.3mph). At 70 mph the Model 3 will be considerably more efficient than the Bolt EV. That could mean the Model 3 can use a smaller battery or will have considerably more range with a similar (60kWh) battery.