I recently contacted Tesla about the Status SGIP for my two Powerwalls. Although I started the process on 07/31/17, based on the email below, I likely will not be in SGIP Step 3. =/
Good Evening,
I am following up with you about your request for SGIP information. Currently we are on Step 3 of the SGIP in order to get the rebate we go based off of the creation date your creation date which is 07/31/17. Currently the people getting the rebate in step three are from jobs created in March and in April. There are two more steps and you may fall into one of those steps for the rebate we have to wait for those steps to open.
I hope this answers your question.
--Tesla Rep by email on 05/03/2018
I understand it is a bit of a gamble to get the SGIP rebate with Tesla, but I didn't want to reward contractors that mark up the cost of installation to the point where the contractor effectively got the majority of the rebate. For example, to install one Powerwall (PW) for a third party contractor was $12,334 vs $7,693 directly with Tesla at the time of my comparison (A $4,641 Difference!). At the time, SGIP Step 2 was $4,640.
Doing the math, there is only so many rebates that can be grated to Tesla under the 20% developer cap.
Step 3 = $2,128,329.26 / $4,060.00 = 524 PW
Step 4 = $2,115,309.91 / $3,480.00 = 607 PW
Step 5 = $1,152,597.75 / $2,900.00 = 397 PW
Total # of Powerwalls for remaining SGIP = 524 + 607 + 397 = 1,528 PW
Assuming a 50/50 split between people getting 1 PW and 2 PW = (1 + 2) / 2 = 1.5 PW / person
Thus, # of SGIP applicants under Tesla's 20% Developer cap = 1,525 PW / 1.5 PW/person =
1,018 people.
This excludes Residential Storage Equity. I am not sure how many would actually qualify under the income requirements of that tier.